KPIT / Mon Sep 28 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST40%Sep 23 · 02:04 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

62%

53%

51%

17%

10%

Consensus

40%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 36.2¢Risks 36.25u

ICONNO 63.7¢Risks 63.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +63.75u · ICON −63.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—	16.9%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	94.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	45.8%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	26.0%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	13.2%	—	—	—	—	30.0%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	22.5%	—	—	—	—	28.9%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	27.8%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	38.8%	—	0.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	0.1%	—	—	36.9%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	41.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	15.7%	—	—	—	—	34.7%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	29.8%	—	11.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	6.0%	—	20.7%	—	—	30.1%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	35.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	2.3%	34.8%	—	—	35.5%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	42.5%	—	56.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	26.9%	44.4%	55.6%	2.7%	—	36.2%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	11.1%	—	46.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	6.4%	30.4%	57.3%	37.8%	—	33.7%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	49.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	22.8%	1.1%	37.2%	17.9%	—	23.9%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	31.9%	—	37.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	13.1%	10.0%	49.2%	25.5%	—	27.4%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	9.9%	0.4%	50.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	10.4%	1.9%	49.2%	4.3%	—	16.8%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	15.2%	3.1%	43.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	8.0%	4.1%	24.1%	1.0%	—	22.1%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	7.1%	5.7%	21.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	12.9%	4.3%	3.8%	17.2%	—	13.4%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	6.1%	2.6%	5.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	6.5%	0.6%	3.0%	8.6%	—	8.6%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	5.7%	1.6%	7.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	2.4%	0.6%	1.7%	0.7%	—	6.7%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	2.0%	0.3%	0.5%	—	—	5.8%
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	3.8%	0.2%	0.1%	0.9%	—	6.6%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	0.5%	1.7%	0.0%	—	3.5%
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	1.4%	0.1%	0.1%	5.1%	0.0%	3.5%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	0.6%	0.1%	1.5%	—	3.5%
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	0.1%	0.2%	0.8%	2.3%	3.7%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	0.8%	0.4%	0.7%	—	1.8%
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	0.1%	0.2%	1.6%	0.0%	1.1%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	0.1%	0.0%	0.5%	—	1.1%
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%	0.3%	1.9%	0.7%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.4%	0.0%	0.2%	—	0.4%
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	1.0%	0.2%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	62%	74.2°F	5.3°F	2026-09-22 18:00	Pending
National Blend	58%	73.0°F	2.4°F	2026-09-22 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	73.0°F	5.8°F	2026-09-22 14:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	53%	72.8°F	4.5°F	2026-09-22 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	51%	72.6°F	6.6°F	2026-09-22 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	17%	70.0°F	2.6°F	2026-09-22 00:00	Pending
ICON	10%	63.7°F	6.9°F	2026-09-22 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260928-TMAX-GE73
Opened Sep 22 · 02:42 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 73°F · Mon Sep 28

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗