KPIT / Mon Sep 28 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST40%Sep 23 · 02:04 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

62%

53%

51%

17%

10%

Consensus

40%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 36.2¢Risks 36.25u

ICONNO 63.7¢Risks 63.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +63.75u · ICON −63.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-23T02:04:02+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-22T02:42:21+00:00	32.6%	24.3%	45.2%	54.4%	63.2%
2026-09-22T03:27:44+00:00	32.6%	24.3%	45.2%	54.4%	63.2%
2026-09-22T04:12:48+00:00	32.6%	24.3%	45.2%	54.4%	63.2%
2026-09-22T04:57:56+00:00	32.6%	24.3%	45.2%	54.4%	52.3%
2026-09-22T05:43:15+00:00	32.6%	24.3%	45.2%	54.4%	52.3%
2026-09-22T06:28:39+00:00	32.6%	24.3%	45.2%	54.4%	52.3%
2026-09-22T07:13:48+00:00	32.6%	24.3%	45.2%	54.4%	52.3%
2026-09-22T07:58:57+00:00	23.2%	24.3%	45.2%	50.6%	52.3%
2026-09-22T08:44:40+00:00	23.2%	24.3%	45.2%	50.6%	52.3%
2026-09-22T09:29:44+00:00	23.2%	24.3%	45.2%	50.6%	52.3%
2026-09-22T10:14:49+00:00	23.2%	24.3%	45.2%	50.6%	52.3%
2026-09-22T10:59:56+00:00	23.2%	24.4%	45.2%	50.6%	52.3%
2026-09-22T11:45:09+00:00	23.2%	24.4%	45.2%	50.6%	52.3%
2026-09-22T12:30:14+00:00	23.2%	24.4%	45.2%	50.6%	52.3%
2026-09-22T13:15:20+00:00	23.2%	24.4%	45.2%	50.6%	52.3%
2026-09-22T14:00:25+00:00	26.8%	24.4%	45.2%	50.6%	52.3%
2026-09-22T14:47:12+00:00	26.8%	24.4%	45.2%	50.6%	52.3%
2026-09-22T15:32:20+00:00	26.8%	16.8%	45.2%	50.6%	52.3%
2026-09-22T16:17:38+00:00	26.8%	16.8%	45.2%	50.6%	52.3%
2026-09-22T17:02:44+00:00	26.8%	16.8%	45.2%	50.6%	10.0%
2026-09-22T17:47:50+00:00	26.8%	16.8%	45.2%	50.6%	10.0%
2026-09-22T18:32:55+00:00	26.8%	16.8%	45.2%	50.6%	10.0%
2026-09-22T19:18:04+00:00	26.8%	16.8%	45.2%	50.6%	10.0%
2026-09-22T20:03:09+00:00	51.5%	16.8%	45.2%	50.6%	10.0%
2026-09-22T20:48:14+00:00	51.5%	16.8%	45.2%	50.6%	10.0%
2026-09-22T21:33:20+00:00	51.5%	16.8%	45.2%	50.6%	10.0%
2026-09-22T22:18:28+00:00	51.5%	16.8%	45.2%	50.6%	10.0%
2026-09-22T23:03:37+00:00	51.5%	16.8%	52.7%	50.6%	10.0%
2026-09-22T23:48:43+00:00	51.5%	16.8%	52.7%	50.6%	10.0%
2026-09-23T00:33:49+00:00	51.5%	16.8%	52.7%	50.6%	10.0%
2026-09-23T01:18:57+00:00	51.5%	16.8%	52.7%	50.6%	10.0%
2026-09-23T02:04:02+00:00	62.5%	16.8%	52.7%	50.6%	10.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	62%	74.2°F	5.3°F	2026-09-22 18:00	Pending
National Blend	58%	73.0°F	2.4°F	2026-09-22 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	73.0°F	5.8°F	2026-09-22 14:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	53%	72.8°F	4.5°F	2026-09-22 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	51%	72.6°F	6.6°F	2026-09-22 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	17%	70.0°F	2.6°F	2026-09-22 00:00	Pending
ICON	10%	63.7°F	6.9°F	2026-09-22 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260928-TMAX-GE73
Opened Sep 22 · 02:42 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 73°F · Mon Sep 28

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗