KPIT / Fri Oct 2 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST97%Sep 28 · 02:42 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

>99%

96%

90%

75%

Consensus

97%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 87.5¢Risks 87.45u

HRESNO 12.5¢Risks 12.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +12.55u · HRES −12.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	68.9%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	82.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	55.8%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	64.1%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	60.5%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	—	—	—	70.3%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	83.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	76.1%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	91.0%	—	—	—	—	74.2%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	67.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	74.4%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	69.2%	—	3.4%	—	—	63.2%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	74.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	72.4%	—	—	—	—	76.3%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	69.5%	—	1.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	85.4%	—	49.4%	—	—	85.8%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	99.4%	—	71.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	99.7%	—	99.6%	—	—	89.6%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	99.5%	—	99.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	99.4%	41.9%	99.6%	—	—	92.8%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	99.8%	—	56.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	90.4%	99.2%	99.8%	40.3%	—	87.8%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	49.3%	—	99.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	55.1%	82.5%	99.3%	85.2%	—	90.0%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	92.0%	—	76.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	59.8%	59.8%	47.7%	50.0%	—	89.0%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	54.7%	—	56.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	54.8%	88.9%	51.6%	41.3%	—	91.6%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	56.5%	85.6%	79.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	98.6%	87.1%	69.2%	82.2%	—	76.8%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	99.9%	81.0%	55.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	98.4%	87.8%	86.9%	73.1%	—	93.0%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	99.2%	89.6%	98.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	99.9%	88.5%	99.2%	94.2%	—	99.6%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	99.9%	75.4%	90.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	97.0%	92.1%	100.0%	91.8%	—	97.5%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	92.7%	92.7%	98.8%	—	—	48.0%
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	58.2%	88.2%	80.3%	80.3%	89.2%	91.4%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	61.5%	88.9%	81.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	75.3%	89.1%	68.9%	72.7%	88.1%	97.6%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	64.3%	93.7%	73.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	69.0%	95.2%	89.0%	68.0%	98.0%	90.6%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	69.6%	94.5%	63.0%	73.7%	—	95.7%
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	80.1%	96.5%	70.2%	78.3%	98.2%	93.7%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	81.8%	97.0%	76.2%	95.7%	—	96.3%
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	81.8%	98.0%	69.3%	74.9%	98.6%	89.9%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	81.8%	98.7%	75.8%	79.9%	—	95.0%
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	83.7%	98.4%	80.9%	85.4%	99.2%	95.6%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	59.0%	96.3%	77.6%	89.5%	—	94.8%
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	7.1%	88.3%	75.0%	92.9%	99.5%	96.3%
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	7.3%	0.4%	11.5%	—	7.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	>99%	85.9°F	4.9°F	2026-09-27 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	>99%	79.5°F	4.2°F	2026-09-27 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	96%	76.4°F	4.9°F	2026-09-27 00:00	Pending
ICON	90%	75.1°F	5.8°F	2026-09-27 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	75%	71.4°F	5.8°F	2026-09-27 12:00	Pending
National Blend	62%	69.6°F	6.6°F	2026-09-27 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	68.0°F	5.1°F	2026-09-27 14:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261002-TMAX-GE68
Opened Sep 27 · 14:40 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 68°F · Fri Oct 2

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗