KPIT / Fri Oct 2 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST97%Sep 28 · 02:42 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

>99%

96%

90%

75%

Consensus

97%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 87.5¢Risks 87.45u

HRESNO 12.5¢Risks 12.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +12.55u · HRES −12.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-28T02:42:16+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-27T14:40:00+00:00	83.9%	96.1%	99.6%	57.5%	92.3%
2026-09-27T15:25:27+00:00	83.9%	96.5%	99.6%	57.5%	92.3%
2026-09-27T16:10:32+00:00	83.9%	96.5%	99.6%	57.5%	92.3%
2026-09-27T16:55:37+00:00	83.9%	96.5%	99.3%	57.5%	90.4%
2026-09-27T17:40:46+00:00	83.9%	96.5%	99.3%	57.5%	90.4%
2026-09-27T18:25:54+00:00	83.9%	96.5%	99.3%	57.5%	90.4%
2026-09-27T19:11:07+00:00	83.9%	96.5%	99.3%	57.5%	90.4%
2026-09-27T19:56:16+00:00	99.8%	96.5%	99.3%	74.9%	90.4%
2026-09-27T20:41:24+00:00	99.8%	96.5%	99.3%	74.9%	90.4%
2026-09-27T21:26:31+00:00	99.8%	96.5%	99.3%	74.9%	90.4%
2026-09-27T22:11:35+00:00	99.8%	96.5%	99.3%	74.9%	90.4%
2026-09-27T22:56:41+00:00	99.8%	96.5%	99.8%	74.9%	90.4%
2026-09-27T23:41:49+00:00	99.8%	96.5%	99.8%	74.9%	90.4%
2026-09-28T00:26:54+00:00	99.8%	96.5%	99.8%	74.9%	90.4%
2026-09-28T01:12:03+00:00	99.8%	96.5%	99.8%	74.9%	90.4%
2026-09-28T01:57:10+00:00	100.0%	96.5%	99.8%	74.9%	90.4%
2026-09-28T02:42:16+00:00	100.0%	96.5%	99.8%	74.9%	90.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	>99%	85.9°F	4.9°F	2026-09-27 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	>99%	79.5°F	4.2°F	2026-09-27 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	96%	76.4°F	4.9°F	2026-09-27 00:00	Pending
ICON	90%	75.1°F	5.8°F	2026-09-27 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	75%	71.4°F	5.8°F	2026-09-27 12:00	Pending
National Blend	62%	69.6°F	6.6°F	2026-09-27 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	68.0°F	5.1°F	2026-09-27 14:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261002-TMAX-GE68
Opened Sep 27 · 14:40 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 68°F · Fri Oct 2

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗