KPIT / Fri Oct 2 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST98%Sep 28 · 19:19 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

>99%

97%

97%

88%

Consensus

98%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 94.1¢Risks 47.05u

ICONNO 5.9¢Risks 2.95u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +2.95u · ICON −2.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	18.2%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	64.1%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	61.5%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	65.5%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	54.3%	—	—	—	—	71.7%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	75.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	88.5%	—	—	—	—	69.5%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	62.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	43.2%	—	—	—	—	69.6%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	63.8%	—	2.4%	—	—	57.6%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	71.3%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	63.9%	—	1.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	81.5%	—	43.1%	—	—	82.0%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	99.1%	—	66.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	99.5%	—	99.4%	—	—	86.3%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	99.2%	—	99.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	99.1%	35.5%	99.4%	—	—	90.1%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	99.6%	—	49.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	87.0%	98.7%	99.7%	33.6%	—	83.8%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	42.2%	—	99.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	47.8%	77.4%	98.9%	80.6%	—	86.5%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	88.8%	—	70.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	52.3%	52.3%	40.2%	42.4%	—	84.9%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	46.9%	—	48.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	46.8%	84.6%	43.6%	33.7%	—	88.1%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	48.4%	80.5%	73.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	97.7%	82.2%	61.5%	76.2%	—	70.0%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	99.8%	74.7%	46.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	97.3%	82.8%	81.6%	65.4%	—	89.5%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	98.5%	85.0%	97.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	99.7%	83.4%	98.6%	91.0%	—	99.1%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	99.7%	67.4%	85.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	94.9%	87.9%	99.9%	87.4%	—	95.6%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	88.6%	88.6%	97.8%	—	—	38.2%
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	47.9%	82.4%	72.4%	72.4%	83.7%	86.6%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	51.1%	83.1%	73.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	65.9%	83.1%	58.7%	62.9%	81.7%	95.5%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	53.4%	89.3%	63.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	58.1%	91.5%	82.5%	57.0%	96.0%	84.7%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	58.4%	90.3%	51.2%	63.0%	—	92.2%
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	70.2%	93.3%	58.7%	68.0%	96.3%	88.8%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	72.0%	94.0%	65.1%	91.8%	—	92.8%
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	71.6%	95.7%	56.7%	63.2%	96.8%	82.7%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	71.2%	97.0%	63.7%	68.8%	—	90.2%
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	73.2%	96.3%	69.5%	75.5%	97.9%	91.1%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	44.0%	92.0%	64.8%	80.8%	—	89.5%
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	3.1%	78.6%	60.9%	85.8%	98.5%	91.7%
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	3.1%	0.1%	5.3%	—	3.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	>99%	82.5°F	4.0°F	2026-09-28 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	>99%	82.0°F	4.6°F	2026-09-28 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	97%	78.0°F	4.9°F	2026-09-28 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	97%	77.1°F	4.6°F	2026-09-28 00:00	Pending
ICON	88%	74.1°F	4.7°F	2026-09-28 12:00	Pending
National Blend	61%	70.7°F	7.8°F	2026-09-28 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	69.0°F	4.5°F	2026-09-28 14:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261002-TMAX-GE69
Opened Sep 28 · 14:48 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 69°F · Fri Oct 2

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗