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KPIT / Fri Oct 2 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST98%Sep 28 · 19:19 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
>99%
AIFS
>99%
HRES
97%
EPS
97%
ICON
88%
Consensus
98%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 94.1¢Risks 47.05u
VS
ICONNO 5.9¢Risks 2.95u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +2.95u · ICON −2.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 99.8% · 2026-09-28T14:48:29+00:00AIFS Single: 99.8% · 2026-09-28T15:34:00+00:00AIFS Single: 99.8% · 2026-09-28T16:19:06+00:00AIFS Single: 99.8% · 2026-09-28T17:04:13+00:00AIFS Single: 99.8% · 2026-09-28T17:49:21+00:00AIFS Single: 99.8% · 2026-09-28T18:34:27+00:00AIFS Single: 99.8% · 2026-09-28T19:19:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 96.4% · 2026-09-28T14:48:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 96.8% · 2026-09-28T15:34:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 96.8% · 2026-09-28T16:19:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 96.8% · 2026-09-28T17:04:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 96.8% · 2026-09-28T17:49:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 96.8% · 2026-09-28T18:34:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 96.8% · 2026-09-28T19:19:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 100.0% · 2026-09-28T14:48:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 100.0% · 2026-09-28T15:34:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 100.0% · 2026-09-28T16:19:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 100.0% · 2026-09-28T17:04:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 100.0% · 2026-09-28T17:49:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 100.0% · 2026-09-28T18:34:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 100.0% · 2026-09-28T19:19:33+00:00IFS HRES: 97.1% · 2026-09-28T14:48:29+00:00IFS HRES: 97.1% · 2026-09-28T15:34:00+00:00IFS HRES: 97.1% · 2026-09-28T16:19:06+00:00IFS HRES: 97.3% · 2026-09-28T17:04:13+00:00IFS HRES: 97.3% · 2026-09-28T17:49:21+00:00IFS HRES: 97.3% · 2026-09-28T18:34:27+00:00IFS HRES: 97.3% · 2026-09-28T19:19:33+00:00ICON: 88.6% · 2026-09-28T14:48:29+00:00ICON: 88.6% · 2026-09-28T15:34:00+00:00ICON: 88.6% · 2026-09-28T16:19:06+00:00ICON: 88.2% · 2026-09-28T17:04:13+00:00ICON: 88.2% · 2026-09-28T17:49:21+00:00ICON: 88.2% · 2026-09-28T18:34:27+00:00ICON: 88.2% · 2026-09-28T19:19:33+00:0009-28 14:4809-28 17:0409-28 19:19
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-09-28T19:19:33+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-09-28T14:48:29+00:0099.8%96.4%100.0%97.1%88.6%
2026-09-28T15:34:00+00:0099.8%96.8%100.0%97.1%88.6%
2026-09-28T16:19:06+00:0099.8%96.8%100.0%97.1%88.6%
2026-09-28T17:04:13+00:0099.8%96.8%100.0%97.3%88.2%
2026-09-28T17:49:21+00:0099.8%96.8%100.0%97.3%88.2%
2026-09-28T18:34:27+00:0099.8%96.8%100.0%97.3%88.2%
2026-09-28T19:19:33+00:0099.8%96.8%100.0%97.3%88.2%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2>99%82.5°F4.0°F2026-09-28 06:00Pending
AIFS Single>99%82.0°F4.6°F2026-09-28 06:00Pending
IFS HRES97%78.0°F4.9°F2026-09-28 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble97%77.1°F4.6°F2026-09-28 00:00Pending
ICON88%74.1°F4.7°F2026-09-28 12:00Pending
National Blend61%70.7°F7.8°F2026-09-28 06:00Pending
NWS forecast55%69.0°F4.5°F2026-09-28 14:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261002-TMAX-GE69
Opened Sep 28 · 14:48 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 69°F · Fri Oct 2

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗