KPIT / Fri Oct 2 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST91%Oct 02 · 10:07 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

97%

89%

74%

72%

Consensus

91%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 85.9¢Risks 85.85u

HRESNO 14.1¢Risks 14.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +14.15u · HRES −14.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	12.0%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	62.1%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	65.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	82.2%	—	—	—	—	59.3%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	51.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	32.4%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	39.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	52.3%	—	1.2%	—	—	45.9%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	58.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	55.4%	—	—	—	—	60.2%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	51.8%	—	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	72.0%	—	31.3%	—	—	72.5%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	97.9%	—	53.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	98.7%	—	98.4%	—	—	77.9%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	98.0%	—	98.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	97.8%	23.8%	98.4%	—	—	82.9%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	99.0%	—	35.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	78.1%	97.0%	99.1%	21.9%	—	73.7%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	28.9%	—	99.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	33.7%	65.0%	97.3%	69.0%	—	76.8%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	56.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	37.2%	37.2%	26.4%	28.3%	—	74.2%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	31.9%	—	33.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	31.6%	73.2%	28.8%	20.6%	—	78.2%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	32.6%	67.4%	58.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	94.2%	69.2%	45.0%	61.5%	—	54.2%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	99.3%	59.3%	30.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	93.2%	69.3%	67.8%	48.2%	—	79.2%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	95.7%	72.1%	93.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	98.9%	69.5%	95.9%	81.0%	—	97.2%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	98.9%	49.0%	71.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	87.4%	75.3%	99.6%	74.5%	—	88.9%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	75.9%	75.9%	93.4%	—	—	21.1%
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	28.5%	66.0%	53.1%	53.1%	67.9%	72.4%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	30.7%	66.5%	53.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	44.5%	65.9%	37.1%	41.3%	63.9%	87.5%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	31.5%	75.1%	41.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	35.2%	78.5%	63.7%	34.1%	87.9%	66.9%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	34.7%	75.6%	28.3%	39.3%	—	79.2%
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	46.3%	80.9%	34.2%	43.8%	87.6%	72.4%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	47.4%	81.8%	39.8%	77.2%	—	79.1%
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	46.0%	85.1%	30.7%	36.8%	88.0%	60.6%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	44.4%	88.2%	36.3%	41.7%	—	72.4%
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	45.7%	85.4%	41.4%	48.5%	90.5%	73.2%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	18.1%	74.0%	35.2%	54.5%	—	68.9%
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	50.0%	30.3%	60.9%	91.7%	72.4%
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.4%	0.0%	0.7%	—	0.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	77.7°F	2.8°F	2026-10-01 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	97%	76.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-01 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	89%	74.2°F	3.0°F	2026-10-02 00:00	Pending
ICON	74%	72.8°F	3.5°F	2026-09-30 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	72%	72.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-01 12:00	Pending
National Blend	64%	72.1°F	4.4°F	2026-10-02 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	71.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-02 02:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261002-TMAX-GE71
Opened Sep 26 · 14:32 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 71°F · Fri Oct 2

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗