KPIT / Fri Oct 2 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST91%Oct 02 · 10:07 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

97%

89%

74%

72%

Consensus

91%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 85.9¢Risks 85.85u

HRESNO 14.1¢Risks 14.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +14.15u · HRES −14.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-02T10:07:41+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-26T14:32:02+00:00	94.7%	73.2%	97.5%	51.2%	77.4%
2026-09-26T15:17:28+00:00	94.7%	74.7%	97.5%	51.2%	77.4%
2026-09-26T16:02:34+00:00	94.7%	74.7%	97.5%	51.2%	77.4%
2026-09-26T16:47:40+00:00	94.7%	74.7%	97.5%	51.2%	58.0%
2026-09-26T17:32:49+00:00	94.7%	74.7%	97.5%	51.2%	58.0%
2026-09-26T18:17:56+00:00	94.7%	74.7%	97.5%	51.2%	58.0%
2026-09-26T19:03:07+00:00	94.7%	74.7%	97.5%	51.2%	58.0%
2026-09-26T19:48:16+00:00	68.1%	74.7%	97.5%	42.2%	58.0%
2026-09-26T20:33:25+00:00	68.1%	74.7%	97.5%	42.2%	58.0%
2026-09-26T21:18:31+00:00	68.1%	74.7%	97.5%	42.2%	58.0%
2026-09-26T22:03:36+00:00	68.1%	74.7%	97.5%	42.2%	58.0%
2026-09-26T22:48:42+00:00	68.1%	74.7%	97.5%	42.2%	58.0%
2026-09-26T23:33:53+00:00	68.1%	74.7%	96.6%	42.2%	58.0%
2026-09-27T00:19:01+00:00	68.1%	74.7%	96.6%	42.2%	58.0%
2026-09-27T01:04:10+00:00	68.1%	74.7%	96.6%	42.2%	58.0%
2026-09-27T01:49:24+00:00	63.2%	74.7%	96.6%	42.2%	58.0%
2026-09-27T02:34:30+00:00	63.2%	74.7%	96.6%	42.2%	58.0%
2026-09-27T03:19:39+00:00	63.2%	74.7%	96.6%	42.2%	58.0%
2026-09-27T04:05:12+00:00	63.2%	74.7%	96.6%	42.2%	58.0%
2026-09-27T04:50:17+00:00	63.2%	74.7%	96.6%	42.2%	81.8%
2026-09-27T05:35:26+00:00	63.2%	74.7%	94.8%	42.2%	81.8%
2026-09-27T06:20:37+00:00	63.2%	74.7%	94.8%	42.2%	81.8%
2026-09-27T07:05:43+00:00	63.2%	74.7%	94.8%	42.2%	81.8%
2026-09-27T07:50:56+00:00	64.2%	74.7%	94.8%	37.2%	81.8%
2026-09-27T08:36:49+00:00	64.2%	74.7%	94.8%	37.2%	81.8%
2026-09-27T09:21:58+00:00	64.2%	74.7%	94.8%	37.2%	81.8%
2026-09-27T10:07:03+00:00	64.2%	74.7%	94.8%	37.2%	81.8%
2026-09-27T10:52:08+00:00	64.2%	74.7%	94.8%	37.2%	81.8%
2026-09-27T11:37:14+00:00	64.2%	87.7%	97.6%	37.2%	81.8%
2026-09-27T12:22:25+00:00	64.2%	87.7%	97.6%	37.2%	81.8%
2026-09-27T13:07:31+00:00	64.2%	87.7%	97.6%	37.2%	81.8%
2026-09-27T13:52:38+00:00	65.0%	87.7%	97.6%	37.2%	81.9%
2026-09-28T03:27:24+00:00	99.9%	88.6%	98.4%	56.1%	78.5%
2026-09-28T04:13:27+00:00	99.9%	88.6%	98.4%	56.1%	78.5%
2026-09-28T04:58:33+00:00	99.9%	88.6%	99.9%	56.1%	78.3%
2026-09-28T05:43:41+00:00	99.9%	88.6%	99.9%	56.1%	78.3%
2026-09-28T06:28:53+00:00	99.9%	88.6%	99.9%	56.1%	78.3%
2026-09-28T07:13:59+00:00	99.9%	88.6%	99.9%	56.1%	78.3%
2026-09-28T07:59:14+00:00	99.0%	88.6%	99.9%	93.2%	78.3%
2026-09-28T08:45:26+00:00	99.0%	88.6%	99.9%	93.2%	78.3%
2026-09-28T09:30:32+00:00	99.0%	88.6%	99.9%	93.2%	78.3%
2026-09-28T10:15:37+00:00	99.0%	88.6%	99.9%	93.2%	78.3%
2026-09-28T11:00:45+00:00	99.0%	91.5%	99.9%	93.2%	78.3%
2026-09-28T11:46:03+00:00	99.0%	91.5%	99.9%	93.2%	78.3%
2026-09-28T12:31:11+00:00	99.0%	91.5%	99.9%	93.2%	78.3%
2026-09-28T13:16:20+00:00	99.0%	91.5%	99.9%	93.2%	78.3%
2026-09-28T14:01:26+00:00	99.4%	91.5%	99.9%	93.2%	78.3%
2026-10-02T03:20:50+00:00	81.4%	99.5%	98.3%	72.2%	74.3%
2026-10-02T04:06:23+00:00	81.4%	99.5%	98.3%	72.2%	74.3%
2026-10-02T04:51:29+00:00	81.4%	99.5%	98.3%	72.2%	74.3%
2026-10-02T05:36:39+00:00	81.4%	99.5%	96.8%	72.2%	74.3%
2026-10-02T06:21:59+00:00	81.4%	99.5%	96.8%	72.2%	74.3%
2026-10-02T07:07:06+00:00	81.4%	99.5%	96.8%	72.2%	74.3%
2026-10-02T07:52:19+00:00	88.8%	99.5%	96.8%	72.2%	74.3%
2026-10-02T08:37:30+00:00	88.8%	99.5%	96.8%	72.2%	74.3%
2026-10-02T09:22:35+00:00	88.8%	99.5%	96.8%	72.2%	74.3%
2026-10-02T10:07:41+00:00	88.8%	99.5%	96.8%	72.2%	74.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	77.7°F	2.8°F	2026-10-01 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	97%	76.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-01 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	89%	74.2°F	3.0°F	2026-10-02 00:00	Pending
ICON	74%	72.8°F	3.5°F	2026-09-30 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	72%	72.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-01 12:00	Pending
National Blend	64%	72.1°F	4.4°F	2026-10-02 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	71.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-02 02:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261002-TMAX-GE71
Opened Sep 26 · 14:32 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 71°F · Fri Oct 2

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗