KPIT / Sat Oct 3 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST84%Oct 03 · 07:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

95%

85%

80%

50%

44%

Consensus

84%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 69.5¢Risks 69.55u

ICONNO 30.4¢Risks 30.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +30.45u · ICON −30.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	96.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	68.9%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	72.1%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	75.2%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	76.8%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	—	—	—	80.3%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	94.1%	—	—	—	—	84.5%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	87.4%	—	—	—	—	79.2%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	91.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	81.1%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	55.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	45.1%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	36.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	62.8%	—	—	—	—	78.3%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	23.1%	—	79.5%	—	—	85.2%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	48.8%	—	80.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	95.9%	—	—	91.2%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	56.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	99.8%	—	—	94.4%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	84.8%	—	95.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	98.1%	—	—	87.7%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	11.9%	—	99.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	23.8%	37.4%	56.7%	—	—	78.7%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	98.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	43.7%	23.0%	99.2%	18.0%	—	75.9%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	49.3%	—	97.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	42.7%	24.3%	32.3%	40.6%	—	75.1%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	40.4%	—	19.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	67.0%	16.4%	10.3%	37.2%	—	76.1%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	63.0%	—	23.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	73.9%	39.0%	24.8%	39.7%	—	82.6%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	68.1%	1.2%	53.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	68.5%	40.1%	44.2%	50.0%	—	75.5%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	70.4%	18.4%	84.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	68.6%	51.7%	71.6%	60.4%	—	63.7%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	68.2%	60.7%	79.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	56.4%	60.9%	—	48.2%	28.9%	56.4%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	53.8%	57.5%	50.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	47.1%	53.9%	47.1%	44.2%	—	54.9%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	55.0%	61.8%	51.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	40.8%	53.1%	61.2%	51.0%	1.0%	53.1%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	52.1%	50.0%	46.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	52.2%	59.7%	52.2%	52.2%	7.7%	59.7%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	59.0%	5.7%	52.2%	0.4%	—	0.2%
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	43.0%	5.7%	64.8%	58.1%	33.1%	59.2%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	42.8%	3.1%	63.0%	58.4%	—	57.2%
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	42.6%	55.0%	63.4%	46.3%	41.3%	58.7%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	47.4%	48.7%	66.3%	52.6%	—	42.3%
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	48.7%	60.6%	79.0%	64.4%	39.4%	68.1%
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	54.2%	56.9%	77.9%	63.7%	—	63.7%
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	52.9%	61.4%	76.6%	58.6%	47.1%	68.2%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	54.5%	60.5%	74.0%	56.0%	—	61.9%
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	46.8%	72.4%	51.6%	37.6%	59.4%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	66.1%	66.1%	50.0%	—	58.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	95%	70.2°F	2.9°F	2026-10-02 18:00	Pending
National Blend	91%	67.0°F	1.1°F	2026-10-03 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	85%	69.6°F	4.0°F	2026-10-02 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	80%	68.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-02 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	66.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-03 02:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	50%	65.5°F	2.9°F	2026-10-02 00:00	Pending
ICON	44%	65.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-02 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261003-TMAX-GE66
Opened Sep 27 · 14:40 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 66°F · Sat Oct 3

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗