KPIT / Sat Oct 3 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST84%Oct 03 · 07:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

95%

85%

80%

50%

44%

Consensus

84%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 69.5¢Risks 69.55u

ICONNO 30.4¢Risks 30.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +30.45u · ICON −30.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-03T07:18:58+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-27T14:40:00+00:00	68.7%	66.5%	91.0%	55.4%	46.0%
2026-09-27T15:25:27+00:00	68.7%	67.9%	91.0%	55.4%	46.0%
2026-09-27T16:10:32+00:00	68.7%	67.9%	91.0%	55.4%	46.0%
2026-09-27T16:55:37+00:00	68.7%	67.9%	91.4%	55.4%	38.6%
2026-09-27T17:40:46+00:00	68.7%	67.9%	91.4%	55.4%	38.6%
2026-09-27T18:25:54+00:00	68.7%	67.9%	91.4%	55.4%	38.6%
2026-09-27T19:11:07+00:00	68.7%	67.9%	91.4%	55.4%	38.6%
2026-09-27T19:56:16+00:00	88.2%	67.9%	91.4%	63.5%	38.6%
2026-09-27T20:41:24+00:00	88.2%	67.9%	91.4%	63.5%	38.6%
2026-09-27T21:26:31+00:00	88.2%	67.9%	91.4%	63.5%	38.6%
2026-09-27T22:11:35+00:00	88.2%	67.9%	91.4%	63.5%	38.6%
2026-09-27T22:56:41+00:00	88.2%	67.9%	97.7%	63.5%	38.6%
2026-09-27T23:41:49+00:00	88.2%	67.9%	97.7%	63.5%	38.6%
2026-09-28T00:26:54+00:00	88.2%	67.9%	97.7%	63.5%	38.6%
2026-09-28T01:12:03+00:00	88.2%	67.9%	97.7%	63.5%	38.6%
2026-09-28T01:57:10+00:00	87.0%	67.9%	97.7%	63.5%	38.6%
2026-09-28T02:42:16+00:00	87.0%	67.9%	97.7%	63.5%	38.6%
2026-09-28T03:27:24+00:00	87.0%	67.9%	97.7%	63.5%	38.6%
2026-09-28T04:13:27+00:00	87.0%	67.9%	97.7%	63.5%	38.6%
2026-09-28T04:58:33+00:00	87.0%	67.9%	99.8%	63.5%	55.5%
2026-09-28T05:43:42+00:00	87.0%	67.9%	99.8%	63.5%	55.5%
2026-09-28T06:28:53+00:00	87.0%	67.9%	99.8%	63.5%	55.5%
2026-09-28T07:13:59+00:00	87.0%	67.9%	99.8%	63.5%	55.5%
2026-09-28T07:59:14+00:00	92.8%	67.9%	99.8%	74.3%	55.5%
2026-09-28T08:45:26+00:00	92.8%	67.9%	99.8%	74.3%	55.5%
2026-09-28T09:30:32+00:00	92.8%	67.9%	99.8%	74.3%	55.5%
2026-09-28T10:15:37+00:00	92.8%	67.9%	99.8%	74.3%	55.5%
2026-09-28T11:00:45+00:00	92.8%	69.8%	98.8%	74.3%	55.5%
2026-09-28T11:46:03+00:00	92.8%	69.8%	98.8%	74.3%	55.5%
2026-09-28T12:31:11+00:00	92.8%	69.8%	98.8%	74.3%	55.5%
2026-09-28T13:16:20+00:00	92.8%	69.8%	98.8%	74.3%	55.5%
2026-09-28T14:01:26+00:00	89.9%	69.8%	98.8%	74.3%	56.2%
2026-09-28T14:48:29+00:00	89.9%	69.8%	98.8%	74.3%	56.2%
2026-09-28T15:34:00+00:00	89.9%	71.2%	98.8%	74.3%	56.2%
2026-09-28T16:19:06+00:00	89.9%	71.2%	98.8%	74.3%	56.2%
2026-09-28T17:04:13+00:00	89.9%	71.2%	99.2%	74.3%	57.5%
2026-09-28T17:49:21+00:00	89.9%	71.2%	99.2%	74.3%	57.5%
2026-09-28T18:34:27+00:00	89.9%	71.2%	99.2%	74.3%	57.5%
2026-09-28T19:19:33+00:00	89.9%	71.2%	99.2%	74.3%	57.5%
2026-09-28T20:04:42+00:00	89.9%	71.2%	99.2%	71.5%	57.5%
2026-09-28T20:49:49+00:00	89.9%	71.2%	99.2%	71.5%	57.5%
2026-09-28T21:34:53+00:00	89.9%	71.2%	99.2%	71.5%	57.5%
2026-09-28T22:19:57+00:00	89.9%	71.2%	99.2%	71.5%	57.5%
2026-09-28T23:05:03+00:00	89.9%	71.2%	98.5%	71.5%	57.5%
2026-09-28T23:50:09+00:00	89.9%	71.2%	98.5%	71.5%	57.5%
2026-09-29T00:35:16+00:00	89.9%	71.2%	98.5%	71.5%	57.5%
2026-09-29T01:20:26+00:00	89.9%	71.2%	98.5%	71.5%	57.5%
2026-09-29T02:05:35+00:00	90.6%	71.2%	98.5%	71.5%	57.5%
2026-09-29T02:51:00+00:00	90.6%	71.2%	98.5%	71.5%	57.5%
2026-09-29T03:36:05+00:00	90.6%	71.2%	98.5%	71.5%	57.5%
2026-09-30T15:53:23+00:00	83.3%	48.9%	79.1%	51.8%	59.1%
2026-09-30T16:38:46+00:00	83.3%	48.9%	79.1%	51.8%	58.1%
2026-09-30T17:23:55+00:00	83.3%	48.9%	82.7%	51.8%	58.1%
2026-09-30T18:09:02+00:00	83.3%	48.9%	82.7%	51.8%	58.1%
2026-09-30T18:54:12+00:00	83.3%	48.9%	82.7%	51.8%	58.1%
2026-09-30T19:39:17+00:00	74.0%	48.9%	82.7%	67.2%	58.1%
2026-09-30T20:24:31+00:00	74.0%	48.9%	82.7%	67.2%	58.1%
2026-09-30T21:09:37+00:00	74.0%	48.9%	82.7%	67.2%	58.1%
2026-09-30T21:54:43+00:00	74.0%	48.9%	82.7%	67.2%	58.1%
2026-09-30T22:39:49+00:00	74.0%	48.9%	82.7%	67.2%	58.1%
2026-09-30T23:24:54+00:00	74.0%	48.9%	77.5%	67.2%	58.1%
2026-10-01T00:10:05+00:00	74.0%	48.9%	77.5%	67.2%	58.1%
2026-10-01T00:55:49+00:00	74.0%	48.9%	77.5%	67.2%	58.1%
2026-10-01T01:40:54+00:00	82.1%	48.9%	77.5%	67.2%	58.1%
2026-10-01T02:26:02+00:00	82.1%	48.9%	77.5%	67.2%	58.1%
2026-10-01T03:11:12+00:00	82.1%	48.9%	77.5%	67.2%	58.1%
2026-10-01T03:57:02+00:00	82.1%	48.9%	77.5%	67.2%	58.1%
2026-10-01T04:42:07+00:00	82.1%	48.9%	77.5%	67.2%	58.1%
2026-10-01T05:27:13+00:00	82.1%	48.9%	85.3%	67.2%	58.1%
2026-10-01T06:12:18+00:00	82.1%	48.9%	85.3%	67.2%	58.1%
2026-10-01T06:57:23+00:00	82.1%	48.9%	85.3%	67.2%	58.1%
2026-10-01T07:42:33+00:00	82.6%	48.9%	85.3%	71.2%	58.1%
2026-10-01T08:28:44+00:00	82.6%	48.9%	85.3%	71.2%	58.1%
2026-10-01T09:13:49+00:00	82.6%	48.9%	85.3%	71.2%	58.1%
2026-10-01T09:58:53+00:00	82.6%	48.9%	85.3%	71.2%	58.1%
2026-10-01T10:43:58+00:00	82.6%	48.9%	85.3%	71.2%	58.1%
2026-10-01T11:29:04+00:00	82.6%	48.6%	82.3%	71.2%	58.1%
2026-10-01T12:14:27+00:00	82.6%	48.6%	82.3%	71.2%	58.1%
2026-10-01T12:59:33+00:00	82.6%	48.6%	82.3%	71.2%	58.1%
2026-10-01T13:44:39+00:00	86.6%	48.6%	82.3%	71.2%	58.1%
2026-10-01T14:32:53+00:00	86.6%	48.6%	82.2%	71.3%	58.1%
2026-10-02T03:20:50+00:00	78.0%	51.4%	75.8%	71.3%	58.1%
2026-10-02T04:06:23+00:00	78.0%	51.4%	75.8%	71.3%	58.1%
2026-10-02T04:51:29+00:00	78.0%	51.4%	75.8%	71.3%	58.1%
2026-10-02T05:36:39+00:00	78.0%	51.4%	87.5%	71.3%	58.1%
2026-10-02T06:21:59+00:00	78.0%	51.4%	87.5%	71.3%	58.1%
2026-10-02T07:07:06+00:00	78.0%	51.4%	87.5%	71.3%	58.1%
2026-10-02T07:52:19+00:00	78.6%	51.4%	87.5%	71.3%	58.1%
2026-10-02T08:37:30+00:00	78.6%	51.4%	87.5%	71.3%	58.1%
2026-10-02T09:22:35+00:00	78.6%	51.4%	87.5%	71.3%	58.1%
2026-10-02T10:07:41+00:00	78.6%	51.4%	87.5%	71.3%	58.1%
2026-10-02T10:52:57+00:00	78.6%	50.0%	88.8%	74.0%	58.1%
2026-10-02T11:39:17+00:00	78.6%	50.0%	88.8%	74.0%	58.1%
2026-10-02T12:25:20+00:00	78.6%	50.0%	88.8%	74.0%	58.1%
2026-10-02T13:10:25+00:00	78.6%	50.0%	88.8%	74.0%	58.1%
2026-10-02T13:55:40+00:00	80.7%	50.0%	88.8%	74.0%	58.1%
2026-10-02T14:44:18+00:00	80.7%	50.0%	91.0%	74.0%	58.1%
2026-10-02T15:29:51+00:00	80.7%	50.0%	91.0%	74.0%	58.1%
2026-10-02T16:14:59+00:00	80.7%	50.0%	91.0%	74.0%	58.1%
2026-10-02T17:00:06+00:00	80.7%	50.0%	91.0%	74.0%	44.4%
2026-10-02T17:45:21+00:00	80.7%	50.0%	91.0%	74.0%	44.4%
2026-10-02T18:30:26+00:00	80.7%	50.0%	91.0%	74.0%	44.4%
2026-10-02T19:15:33+00:00	80.7%	50.0%	91.0%	74.0%	44.4%
2026-10-02T20:00:40+00:00	82.1%	50.0%	91.0%	74.0%	44.4%
2026-10-02T20:45:50+00:00	82.1%	50.0%	91.0%	74.0%	44.4%
2026-10-02T21:30:56+00:00	82.1%	50.0%	91.0%	74.0%	44.4%
2026-10-02T22:16:03+00:00	82.1%	50.0%	91.0%	74.0%	44.4%
2026-10-02T23:01:43+00:00	82.1%	50.0%	93.0%	79.7%	44.4%
2026-10-02T23:46:51+00:00	82.1%	50.0%	93.0%	79.7%	44.4%
2026-10-03T00:31:58+00:00	82.1%	50.0%	93.0%	79.7%	44.4%
2026-10-03T01:17:08+00:00	82.1%	50.0%	93.0%	79.7%	44.4%
2026-10-03T02:02:26+00:00	84.6%	50.0%	93.0%	79.7%	44.4%
2026-10-03T02:47:40+00:00	84.6%	50.0%	93.0%	79.7%	44.4%
2026-10-03T03:32:54+00:00	84.6%	50.0%	93.0%	79.7%	44.4%
2026-10-03T04:18:35+00:00	84.6%	50.0%	93.0%	79.7%	44.4%
2026-10-03T05:03:40+00:00	84.6%	50.0%	94.7%	79.7%	44.4%
2026-10-03T05:48:48+00:00	84.6%	50.0%	94.7%	79.7%	44.4%
2026-10-03T06:33:54+00:00	84.6%	50.0%	94.7%	79.7%	44.4%
2026-10-03T07:18:58+00:00	84.6%	50.0%	94.7%	79.7%	44.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	95%	70.2°F	2.9°F	2026-10-02 18:00	Pending
National Blend	91%	67.0°F	1.1°F	2026-10-03 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	85%	69.6°F	4.0°F	2026-10-02 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	80%	68.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-02 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	66.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-03 02:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	50%	65.5°F	2.9°F	2026-10-02 00:00	Pending
ICON	44%	65.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-02 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261003-TMAX-GE66
Opened Sep 27 · 14:40 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 66°F · Sat Oct 3

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗