KPIT / Sat Oct 3 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 72°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST29%Sep 27 · 02:34 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

48%

43%

35%

26%

Consensus

29%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 26.7¢Risks 26.65u

HRESNO 73.4¢Risks 73.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +73.35u · HRES −73.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	7.1%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	83.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	38.0%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	45.2%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	47.3%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	52.1%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	77.6%	—	—	—	—	58.5%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	17.1%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	11.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	29.9%	—	—	—	—	47.2%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	42.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	47.6%	—	—	56.4%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	17.7%	—	48.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	27.7%	—	79.4%	—	—	67.0%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	97.0%	—	—	74.1%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	52.6%	—	75.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	42.9%	—	86.3%	—	—	57.1%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	95.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	4.2%	9.0%	19.8%	—	—	41.3%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	84.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	11.2%	3.6%	91.0%	2.4%	—	36.2%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	13.6%	—	80.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	10.0%	3.6%	5.9%	9.0%	—	33.7%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	8.6%	—	2.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	23.9%	1.7%	0.8%	7.0%	—	33.0%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	20.0%	—	2.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	28.8%	6.9%	3.0%	7.2%	—	39.7%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	22.4%	0.0%	12.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	21.9%	6.6%	8.0%	10.4%	—	28.6%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	22.6%	1.4%	39.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	20.2%	10.1%	22.8%	14.6%	—	16.7%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	19.0%	14.0%	30.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	11.0%	13.4%	—	7.6%	2.6%	11.0%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	10.8%	8.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	6.2%	8.6%	6.2%	5.4%	—	9.0%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	8.4%	11.4%	7.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	3.8%	7.1%	10.3%	6.4%	0.0%	7.1%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	6.2%	5.5%	4.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	5.6%	8.1%	5.6%	5.6%	0.1%	8.1%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	7.1%	0.1%	5.1%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	2.7%	0.0%	8.5%	6.1%	1.4%	6.5%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	2.3%	0.0%	7.0%	5.5%	—	5.1%
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	2.0%	4.0%	6.3%	2.5%	1.8%	4.9%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	2.2%	2.4%	6.4%	3.0%	—	1.6%
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	2.0%	4.0%	11.3%	5.0%	1.1%	6.1%
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	2.3%	2.7%	9.2%	4.0%	—	4.0%
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	1.8%	2.9%	7.3%	2.5%	1.2%	4.4%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	1.5%	2.2%	5.1%	1.7%	—	2.4%
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	0.7%	3.7%	1.0%	0.4%	1.6%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.9%	1.9%	0.6%	—	1.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	50%	71.5°F	8.5°F	2026-09-26 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	48%	71.1°F	7.1°F	2026-09-26 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	43%	70.6°F	4.9°F	2026-09-26 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	35%	69.3°F	5.6°F	2026-09-26 18:00	Pending
ICON	26%	65.3°F	9.8°F	2026-09-26 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	6%	61.3°F	6.4°F	2026-09-26 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 72°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261003-TMAX-GE72
Opened Sep 26 · 11:29 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 72°F · Sat Oct 3

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗