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KPIT / Sat Oct 3 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 72°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST29%Sep 27 · 02:34 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
48%
WN2
43%
AIFS
35%
ICON
26%
HRES
6%
Consensus
29%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 26.7¢Risks 26.65u
VS
HRESNO 73.4¢Risks 73.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +73.35u · HRES −73.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 14.5% · 2026-09-26T11:29:13+00:00AIFS Single: 14.5% · 2026-09-26T12:14:29+00:00AIFS Single: 14.5% · 2026-09-26T12:59:34+00:00AIFS Single: 4.1% · 2026-09-26T13:44:41+00:00AIFS Single: 4.1% · 2026-09-26T14:32:03+00:00AIFS Single: 4.1% · 2026-09-26T15:17:28+00:00AIFS Single: 4.1% · 2026-09-26T16:02:34+00:00AIFS Single: 4.1% · 2026-09-26T16:47:40+00:00AIFS Single: 4.1% · 2026-09-26T17:32:49+00:00AIFS Single: 4.1% · 2026-09-26T18:17:56+00:00AIFS Single: 4.1% · 2026-09-26T19:03:07+00:00AIFS Single: 30.1% · 2026-09-26T19:48:16+00:00AIFS Single: 30.1% · 2026-09-26T20:33:25+00:00AIFS Single: 30.1% · 2026-09-26T21:18:31+00:00AIFS Single: 30.1% · 2026-09-26T22:03:36+00:00AIFS Single: 30.1% · 2026-09-26T22:48:42+00:00AIFS Single: 30.1% · 2026-09-26T23:33:53+00:00AIFS Single: 30.1% · 2026-09-27T00:19:01+00:00AIFS Single: 30.1% · 2026-09-27T01:04:10+00:00AIFS Single: 34.6% · 2026-09-27T01:49:24+00:00AIFS Single: 34.6% · 2026-09-27T02:34:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 45.6% · 2026-09-26T11:29:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 45.6% · 2026-09-26T12:14:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 45.6% · 2026-09-26T12:59:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 45.6% · 2026-09-26T13:44:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 45.6% · 2026-09-26T14:32:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 47.8% · 2026-09-26T15:17:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 47.8% · 2026-09-26T16:02:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 47.8% · 2026-09-26T16:47:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 47.8% · 2026-09-26T17:32:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 47.8% · 2026-09-26T18:17:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 47.8% · 2026-09-26T19:03:07+00:00IFS Ensemble: 47.8% · 2026-09-26T19:48:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 47.8% · 2026-09-26T20:33:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 47.8% · 2026-09-26T21:18:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 47.8% · 2026-09-26T22:03:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 47.8% · 2026-09-26T22:48:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 47.8% · 2026-09-26T23:33:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 47.8% · 2026-09-27T00:19:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 47.8% · 2026-09-27T01:04:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 47.8% · 2026-09-27T01:49:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 47.8% · 2026-09-27T02:34:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 42.7% · 2026-09-26T11:29:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 42.7% · 2026-09-26T12:14:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 42.7% · 2026-09-26T12:59:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 42.7% · 2026-09-26T13:44:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 42.7% · 2026-09-26T14:32:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 42.7% · 2026-09-26T15:17:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 42.7% · 2026-09-26T16:02:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 42.7% · 2026-09-26T16:47:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 42.7% · 2026-09-26T17:32:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 42.7% · 2026-09-26T18:17:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 42.7% · 2026-09-26T19:03:07+00:00WeatherNext 2: 42.7% · 2026-09-26T19:48:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 42.7% · 2026-09-26T20:33:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 42.7% · 2026-09-26T21:18:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 42.7% · 2026-09-26T22:03:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 42.7% · 2026-09-26T22:48:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 42.7% · 2026-09-26T23:33:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 42.7% · 2026-09-27T00:19:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 42.7% · 2026-09-27T01:04:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 42.7% · 2026-09-27T01:49:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 42.7% · 2026-09-27T02:34:30+00:00IFS HRES: 33.0% · 2026-09-26T11:29:13+00:00IFS HRES: 33.0% · 2026-09-26T12:14:29+00:00IFS HRES: 33.0% · 2026-09-26T12:59:34+00:00IFS HRES: 33.0% · 2026-09-26T13:44:41+00:00IFS HRES: 33.0% · 2026-09-26T14:32:03+00:00IFS HRES: 33.0% · 2026-09-26T15:17:28+00:00IFS HRES: 33.0% · 2026-09-26T16:02:34+00:00IFS HRES: 33.0% · 2026-09-26T16:47:40+00:00IFS HRES: 33.0% · 2026-09-26T17:32:49+00:00IFS HRES: 33.0% · 2026-09-26T18:17:56+00:00IFS HRES: 33.0% · 2026-09-26T19:03:07+00:00IFS HRES: 5.5% · 2026-09-26T19:48:16+00:00IFS HRES: 5.5% · 2026-09-26T20:33:25+00:00IFS HRES: 5.5% · 2026-09-26T21:18:31+00:00IFS HRES: 5.5% · 2026-09-26T22:03:36+00:00IFS HRES: 5.5% · 2026-09-26T22:48:42+00:00IFS HRES: 5.5% · 2026-09-26T23:33:53+00:00IFS HRES: 5.5% · 2026-09-27T00:19:01+00:00IFS HRES: 5.5% · 2026-09-27T01:04:10+00:00IFS HRES: 5.5% · 2026-09-27T01:49:24+00:00IFS HRES: 5.5% · 2026-09-27T02:34:30+00:00ICON: 34.5% · 2026-09-26T11:29:13+00:00ICON: 34.5% · 2026-09-26T12:14:29+00:00ICON: 34.5% · 2026-09-26T12:59:34+00:00ICON: 34.5% · 2026-09-26T13:44:41+00:00ICON: 34.5% · 2026-09-26T14:32:03+00:00ICON: 34.5% · 2026-09-26T15:17:28+00:00ICON: 34.5% · 2026-09-26T16:02:34+00:00ICON: 26.3% · 2026-09-26T16:47:40+00:00ICON: 26.3% · 2026-09-26T17:32:49+00:00ICON: 26.3% · 2026-09-26T18:17:56+00:00ICON: 26.3% · 2026-09-26T19:03:07+00:00ICON: 26.3% · 2026-09-26T19:48:16+00:00ICON: 26.3% · 2026-09-26T20:33:25+00:00ICON: 26.3% · 2026-09-26T21:18:31+00:00ICON: 26.3% · 2026-09-26T22:03:36+00:00ICON: 26.3% · 2026-09-26T22:48:42+00:00ICON: 26.3% · 2026-09-26T23:33:53+00:00ICON: 26.3% · 2026-09-27T00:19:01+00:00ICON: 26.3% · 2026-09-27T01:04:10+00:00ICON: 26.3% · 2026-09-27T01:49:24+00:00ICON: 26.3% · 2026-09-27T02:34:30+00:0009-26 11:2909-26 19:0309-27 02:34
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-09-27T02:34:30+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-09-26T11:29:13+00:0014.5%45.6%42.7%33.0%34.5%
2026-09-26T12:14:29+00:0014.5%45.6%42.7%33.0%34.5%
2026-09-26T12:59:34+00:0014.5%45.6%42.7%33.0%34.5%
2026-09-26T13:44:41+00:004.1%45.6%42.7%33.0%34.5%
2026-09-26T14:32:03+00:004.1%45.6%42.7%33.0%34.5%
2026-09-26T15:17:28+00:004.1%47.8%42.7%33.0%34.5%
2026-09-26T16:02:34+00:004.1%47.8%42.7%33.0%34.5%
2026-09-26T16:47:40+00:004.1%47.8%42.7%33.0%26.3%
2026-09-26T17:32:49+00:004.1%47.8%42.7%33.0%26.3%
2026-09-26T18:17:56+00:004.1%47.8%42.7%33.0%26.3%
2026-09-26T19:03:07+00:004.1%47.8%42.7%33.0%26.3%
2026-09-26T19:48:16+00:0030.1%47.8%42.7%5.5%26.3%
2026-09-26T20:33:25+00:0030.1%47.8%42.7%5.5%26.3%
2026-09-26T21:18:31+00:0030.1%47.8%42.7%5.5%26.3%
2026-09-26T22:03:36+00:0030.1%47.8%42.7%5.5%26.3%
2026-09-26T22:48:42+00:0030.1%47.8%42.7%5.5%26.3%
2026-09-26T23:33:53+00:0030.1%47.8%42.7%5.5%26.3%
2026-09-27T00:19:01+00:0030.1%47.8%42.7%5.5%26.3%
2026-09-27T01:04:10+00:0030.1%47.8%42.7%5.5%26.3%
2026-09-27T01:49:24+00:0034.6%47.8%42.7%5.5%26.3%
2026-09-27T02:34:30+00:0034.6%47.8%42.7%5.5%26.3%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
National Blend50%71.5°F8.5°F2026-09-26 06:00Pending
IFS Ensemble48%71.1°F7.1°F2026-09-26 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 243%70.6°F4.9°F2026-09-26 12:00Pending
AIFS Single35%69.3°F5.6°F2026-09-26 18:00Pending
ICON26%65.3°F9.8°F2026-09-26 12:00Pending
IFS HRES6%61.3°F6.4°F2026-09-26 12:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 72°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261003-TMAX-GE72
Opened Sep 26 · 11:29 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 72°F · Sat Oct 3

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗