KPIT / Sat Oct 3 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 74°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST31%Sep 26 · 10:44 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

57%

52%

27%

23%

Consensus

31%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 32.3¢Risks 32.30u

AIFSNO 67.7¢Risks 67.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +67.70u · AIFS −67.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	4.2%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	31.6%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	34.9%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	—	—	—	47.9%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	—	—	—	42.6%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	17.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	24.5%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	20.9%	—	—	—	—	36.1%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	36.2%	—	—	44.7%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	37.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	69.8%	—	—	55.4%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	13.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	23.0%	—	94.0%	—	—	63.0%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	39.9%	—	64.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	77.9%	—	—	44.2%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	91.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	1.9%	4.7%	11.8%	—	—	28.8%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	75.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	5.8%	1.6%	83.8%	1.0%	—	24.1%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	68.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	4.9%	1.5%	2.7%	4.4%	—	21.5%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	4.1%	—	0.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	13.8%	0.6%	0.3%	3.2%	—	20.5%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	10.9%	—	1.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	16.9%	3.0%	1.1%	3.1%	—	25.5%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	12.2%	0.0%	6.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	11.6%	2.7%	3.4%	4.7%	—	16.2%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	11.9%	0.4%	23.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	10.1%	4.3%	11.8%	6.8%	—	8.0%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	6.3%	16.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	4.6%	5.8%	—	2.9%	0.8%	4.6%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	3.6%	4.4%	3.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	3.2%	2.1%	1.8%	—	3.4%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	3.0%	4.4%	2.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	2.4%	3.8%	2.1%	0.0%	2.4%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	1.9%	1.7%	1.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	2.6%	1.6%	1.6%	0.0%	2.6%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	0.0%	1.4%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	0.0%	2.5%	1.7%	0.3%	1.8%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	0.0%	1.9%	1.4%	—	1.3%
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.9%	1.6%	0.5%	0.3%	1.1%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.4%	1.5%	0.6%	—	0.3%
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.8%	3.0%	1.0%	0.1%	1.3%
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.4%	2.1%	0.7%	—	0.7%
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.4%	1.5%	0.4%	0.1%	0.7%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.3%	0.9%	0.2%	—	0.3%
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.1%	0.5%	0.1%	0.0%	0.2%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%	—	0.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	57%	74.4°F	5.2°F	2026-09-25 18:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	74.0°F	6.5°F	2026-09-26 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	52%	73.9°F	7.1°F	2026-09-25 00:00	Pending
ICON	27%	67.6°F	9.8°F	2026-09-26 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	23%	68.7°F	6.4°F	2026-09-26 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	8%	65.6°F	5.6°F	2026-09-26 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261003-TMAX-GE74
Opened Sep 26 · 07:42 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 74°F · Sat Oct 3

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗