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KPIT / Sat Oct 3 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 74°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST31%Sep 26 · 10:44 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
57%
EPS
52%
ICON
27%
HRES
23%
AIFS
8%
Consensus
31%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 32.3¢Risks 32.30u
VS
AIFSNO 67.7¢Risks 67.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +67.70u · AIFS −67.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 7.8% · 2026-09-26T07:42:44+00:00AIFS Single: 7.8% · 2026-09-26T08:28:39+00:00AIFS Single: 7.8% · 2026-09-26T09:13:44+00:00AIFS Single: 7.8% · 2026-09-26T09:58:51+00:00AIFS Single: 7.8% · 2026-09-26T10:44:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.3% · 2026-09-26T07:42:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.3% · 2026-09-26T08:28:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.3% · 2026-09-26T09:13:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.3% · 2026-09-26T09:58:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.3% · 2026-09-26T10:44:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 56.8% · 2026-09-26T07:42:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 56.8% · 2026-09-26T08:28:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 56.8% · 2026-09-26T09:13:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 56.8% · 2026-09-26T09:58:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 56.8% · 2026-09-26T10:44:02+00:00IFS HRES: 22.6% · 2026-09-26T07:42:44+00:00IFS HRES: 22.6% · 2026-09-26T08:28:39+00:00IFS HRES: 22.6% · 2026-09-26T09:13:44+00:00IFS HRES: 22.6% · 2026-09-26T09:58:51+00:00IFS HRES: 22.6% · 2026-09-26T10:44:02+00:00ICON: 27.4% · 2026-09-26T07:42:44+00:00ICON: 27.4% · 2026-09-26T08:28:39+00:00ICON: 27.4% · 2026-09-26T09:13:44+00:00ICON: 27.4% · 2026-09-26T09:58:51+00:00ICON: 27.4% · 2026-09-26T10:44:02+00:0009-26 07:4209-26 09:1309-26 10:44
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-09-26T10:44:02+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-09-26T07:42:44+00:007.8%52.3%56.8%22.6%27.4%
2026-09-26T08:28:39+00:007.8%52.3%56.8%22.6%27.4%
2026-09-26T09:13:44+00:007.8%52.3%56.8%22.6%27.4%
2026-09-26T09:58:51+00:007.8%52.3%56.8%22.6%27.4%
2026-09-26T10:44:02+00:007.8%52.3%56.8%22.6%27.4%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 257%74.4°F5.2°F2026-09-25 18:00Pending
National Blend53%74.0°F6.5°F2026-09-26 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble52%73.9°F7.1°F2026-09-25 00:00Pending
ICON27%67.6°F9.8°F2026-09-26 00:00Pending
IFS HRES23%68.7°F6.4°F2026-09-26 00:00Pending
AIFS Single8%65.6°F5.6°F2026-09-26 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261003-TMAX-GE74
Opened Sep 26 · 07:42 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 74°F · Sat Oct 3

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗