KPIT / Mon Oct 5 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 63°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST73%Sep 29 · 03:36 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

88%

87%

57%

53%

51%

Consensus

73%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 69.5¢Risks 69.45u

HRESNO 30.6¢Risks 30.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +30.55u · HRES −30.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	84.1%	—	—	—	—	86.6%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	90.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	85.7%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	91.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	82.8%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	77.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	83.8%	—	—	—	—	82.1%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	94.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	83.5%	—	—	—	—	73.5%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	79.6%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	69.4%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	71.3%	—	—	—	—	75.2%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	45.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	74.6%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	83.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	60.7%	—	84.7%	—	—	60.1%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	64.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	67.0%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	40.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	34.1%	—	85.0%	—	—	70.8%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	54.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	34.1%	—	34.7%	—	—	66.5%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	45.5%	—	85.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	89.3%	—	71.1%	—	—	72.7%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	15.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	40.6%	22.3%	67.6%	—	—	64.5%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	52.8%	—	52.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	27.5%	28.6%	48.6%	37.6%	—	72.5%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	43.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	74.0%	51.5%	70.3%	—	72.2%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	31.3%	—	38.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	34.4%	23.9%	—	15.1%	27.0%	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	47.7%	—	25.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	81.6%	40.5%	32.3%	64.1%	—	66.3%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	58.9%	34.9%	35.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	64.7%	40.1%	53.3%	39.3%	—	74.9%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	54.3%	35.0%	44.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	43.0%	46.5%	30.7%	47.4%	—	57.8%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	38.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	58.2%	35.6%	55.5%	52.8%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	49.0%	—	68.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	62.4%	—	45.1%	51.0%	—	56.8%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	63.7%	—	60.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	55.1%	45.9%	—	54.1%
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	60.5%	53.2%	64.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	55.5%	47.8%	66.9%	40.3%	—	47.8%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	55.6%	55.6%	67.5%	1.3%	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	61.5%	54.6%	55.8%	40.8%	—	52.3%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	67.5%	59.5%	52.4%	44.0%	—	53.6%
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	74.4%	66.9%	61.1%	51.2%	59.9%	64.6%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	80.9%	60.2%	59.0%	46.1%	—	0.9%
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	88.0%	70.5%	68.1%	54.0%	58.0%	69.3%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	88.9%	65.0%	73.5%	48.6%	—	74.7%
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	89.2%	72.0%	81.8%	60.1%	77.8%	76.6%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	90.8%	71.5%	86.4%	64.8%	—	20.2%
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	91.1%	71.0%	89.8%	62.4%	78.6%	77.4%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	77.2%	90.1%	61.4%	—	88.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	88%	68.5°F	5.2°F	2026-09-28 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	87%	68.0°F	4.9°F	2026-09-28 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	57%	63.5°F	5.6°F	2026-09-28 18:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	63.4°F	6.6°F	2026-09-28 06:00	Pending
ICON	53%	63.3°F	9.8°F	2026-09-28 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	51%	62.7°F	6.3°F	2026-09-28 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 63°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261005-TMAX-GE63
Opened Sep 28 · 11:00 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 63°F · Mon Oct 5

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗