KPIT / Mon Oct 5 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 63°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST73%Sep 29 · 03:36 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

88%

87%

57%

53%

51%

Consensus

73%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 69.5¢Risks 69.45u

HRESNO 30.6¢Risks 30.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +30.55u · HRES −30.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-29T03:36:05+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-28T11:00:45+00:00	68.6%	86.3%	90.2%	53.8%	48.0%
2026-09-28T11:46:03+00:00	68.6%	86.3%	90.2%	53.8%	48.0%
2026-09-28T12:31:11+00:00	68.6%	86.3%	90.2%	53.8%	48.0%
2026-09-28T13:16:20+00:00	68.6%	86.3%	90.2%	53.8%	48.0%
2026-09-28T14:01:26+00:00	79.1%	86.3%	90.2%	53.8%	48.0%
2026-09-28T14:48:29+00:00	79.1%	86.3%	90.2%	53.8%	48.0%
2026-09-28T15:34:00+00:00	79.1%	87.6%	90.2%	53.8%	48.0%
2026-09-28T16:19:07+00:00	79.1%	87.6%	90.2%	53.8%	48.0%
2026-09-28T17:04:13+00:00	79.1%	87.6%	93.8%	53.8%	53.3%
2026-09-28T17:49:21+00:00	79.1%	87.6%	93.8%	53.8%	53.3%
2026-09-28T18:34:27+00:00	79.1%	87.6%	93.8%	53.8%	53.3%
2026-09-28T19:19:33+00:00	79.1%	87.6%	93.8%	53.8%	53.3%
2026-09-28T20:04:42+00:00	55.7%	87.6%	93.8%	51.3%	53.3%
2026-09-28T20:49:49+00:00	55.7%	87.6%	93.8%	51.3%	53.3%
2026-09-28T21:34:53+00:00	55.7%	87.6%	93.8%	51.3%	53.3%
2026-09-28T22:19:57+00:00	55.7%	87.6%	93.8%	51.3%	53.3%
2026-09-28T23:05:03+00:00	55.7%	87.6%	87.1%	51.3%	53.3%
2026-09-28T23:50:09+00:00	55.7%	87.6%	87.1%	51.3%	53.3%
2026-09-29T00:35:16+00:00	55.7%	87.6%	87.1%	51.3%	53.3%
2026-09-29T01:20:26+00:00	55.7%	87.6%	87.1%	51.3%	53.3%
2026-09-29T02:05:35+00:00	57.1%	87.6%	87.1%	51.3%	53.3%
2026-09-29T02:51:00+00:00	57.1%	87.6%	87.1%	51.3%	53.3%
2026-09-29T03:36:05+00:00	57.1%	87.6%	87.1%	51.3%	53.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	88%	68.5°F	5.2°F	2026-09-28 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	87%	68.0°F	4.9°F	2026-09-28 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	57%	63.5°F	5.6°F	2026-09-28 18:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	63.4°F	6.6°F	2026-09-28 06:00	Pending
ICON	53%	63.3°F	9.8°F	2026-09-28 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	51%	62.7°F	6.3°F	2026-09-28 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 63°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261005-TMAX-GE63
Opened Sep 28 · 11:00 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 63°F · Mon Oct 5

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗