KPIT / Tue Oct 6 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST78%Oct 06 · 19:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

91%

89%

65%

55%

34%

Consensus

78%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 62.4¢Risks 62.35u

ICONNO 37.6¢Risks 37.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +37.65u · ICON −37.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	47.3%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	87.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	82.5%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	76.8%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	98.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	70.3%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	73.5%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	67.0%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	88.0%	—	—	—	—	65.5%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	59.5%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	20.7%	—	—	—	—	64.6%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	77.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	56.6%	—	—	—	—	59.8%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	57.3%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	66.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	57.6%	—	2.3%	—	—	69.2%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	79.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	79.4%	—	86.7%	—	—	72.9%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	33.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	2.7%	—	—	62.4%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	26.6%	—	46.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	25.7%	—	—	70.5%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	13.3%	—	43.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	21.8%	14.3%	40.0%	—	—	55.4%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	16.7%	—	19.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	16.6%	2.9%	—	4.2%	58.4%	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	22.5%	—	20.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	36.4%	41.3%	28.5%	30.4%	—	44.9%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	25.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	39.4%	33.0%	17.9%	20.0%	—	51.5%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	25.9%	—	18.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	31.6%	45.2%	30.1%	48.4%	—	41.3%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	36.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	37.7%	—	32.2%	40.9%	37.7%	39.3%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	25.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	54.4%	—	33.8%	45.6%	—	50.9%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	50.9%	—	29.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	64.4%	—	50.9%	20.3%	—	50.0%
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	63.0%	39.7%	61.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	54.9%	38.5%	72.1%	41.3%	—	54.9%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	62.8%	51.0%	77.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	56.1%	39.8%	78.1%	36.9%	—	51.0%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	67.4%	56.3%	80.2%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	66.9%	58.7%	81.0%	33.1%	0.5%	47.8%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	67.5%	52.2%	74.2%	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	59.2%	50.0%	77.6%	41.9%	0.4%	44.2%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	54.8%	53.6%	71.7%	33.6%	—	0.0%
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	45.0%	74.4%	36.5%	42.6%	48.8%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	39.8%	81.8%	28.0%	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	40.7%	78.0%	22.0%	36.8%	48.7%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	52.8%	47.2%	72.4%	24.2%	—	50.0%
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	54.3%	61.4%	79.8%	25.6%	44.2%	55.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	56.0%	54.5%	74.0%	39.5%	—	48.5%
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	51.6%	46.8%	72.4%	25.0%	34.6%	40.6%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	54.9%	71.9%	30.9%	—	51.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	91%	64.0°F	1.9°F	2026-10-06 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	91%	65.5°F	3.0°F	2026-10-06 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	89%	64.5°F	2.5°F	2026-10-06 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	65%	62.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-05 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	62.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-06 14:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	55%	61.8°F	2.6°F	2026-10-06 00:00	Pending
ICON	34%	60.1°F	3.4°F	2026-10-06 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261006-TMAX-GE62
Opened Sep 29 · 11:08 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 62°F · Tue Oct 6

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗