KPIT / Tue Oct 6 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST78%Oct 06 · 19:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

91%

89%

65%

55%

34%

Consensus

78%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 62.4¢Risks 62.35u

ICONNO 37.6¢Risks 37.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +37.65u · ICON −37.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-06T19:15:35+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-29T11:08:47+00:00	44.3%	74.3%	46.9%	38.8%	40.7%
2026-09-29T11:54:05+00:00	44.3%	74.3%	46.9%	38.8%	40.7%
2026-09-29T12:39:10+00:00	44.3%	74.3%	46.9%	38.8%	40.7%
2026-09-29T13:24:14+00:00	37.3%	74.3%	46.9%	38.8%	40.7%
2026-09-29T14:11:38+00:00	37.3%	74.3%	46.9%	38.8%	40.7%
2026-09-29T14:56:49+00:00	37.3%	76.0%	46.9%	38.8%	40.7%
2026-09-29T15:42:11+00:00	37.3%	76.0%	46.9%	38.8%	40.7%
2026-09-29T16:27:39+00:00	37.3%	76.0%	46.9%	38.8%	24.3%
2026-09-29T17:12:49+00:00	37.3%	76.0%	50.0%	38.8%	24.3%
2026-09-29T17:57:57+00:00	37.3%	76.0%	50.0%	38.8%	24.3%
2026-09-29T18:43:04+00:00	37.3%	76.0%	50.0%	38.8%	24.3%
2026-09-29T19:28:12+00:00	37.3%	76.0%	50.0%	24.4%	58.9%
2026-09-29T20:13:30+00:00	37.3%	76.0%	50.0%	24.4%	58.9%
2026-09-29T20:58:45+00:00	37.3%	76.0%	50.0%	24.4%	58.9%
2026-09-29T21:43:53+00:00	37.3%	76.0%	50.0%	24.4%	58.9%
2026-09-29T22:29:00+00:00	37.3%	76.0%	50.0%	24.4%	58.9%
2026-09-29T23:14:09+00:00	37.3%	76.0%	45.1%	24.4%	58.9%
2026-09-29T23:59:26+00:00	37.3%	76.0%	45.1%	24.4%	58.9%
2026-09-30T00:44:31+00:00	37.3%	76.0%	45.1%	24.4%	58.9%
2026-09-30T01:29:49+00:00	46.4%	76.0%	45.1%	24.4%	58.9%
2026-09-30T02:14:57+00:00	46.4%	76.0%	45.1%	24.4%	58.9%
2026-09-30T03:00:05+00:00	46.4%	76.0%	45.1%	24.4%	58.9%
2026-09-30T03:45:20+00:00	46.4%	76.0%	45.1%	24.4%	58.9%
2026-09-30T04:30:31+00:00	46.4%	76.0%	45.1%	24.4%	60.9%
2026-09-30T05:16:18+00:00	46.4%	76.0%	52.5%	24.4%	60.9%
2026-09-30T06:01:26+00:00	46.4%	76.0%	52.5%	24.4%	60.9%
2026-09-30T06:46:34+00:00	46.4%	76.0%	52.5%	24.4%	60.9%
2026-09-30T07:31:46+00:00	46.4%	76.0%	52.5%	46.4%	60.9%
2026-09-30T08:18:09+00:00	46.4%	76.0%	52.5%	46.4%	60.9%
2026-09-30T09:03:33+00:00	46.4%	76.0%	52.5%	46.4%	60.9%
2026-09-30T09:48:39+00:00	46.4%	76.0%	52.5%	46.4%	60.9%
2026-09-30T10:34:07+00:00	64.0%	76.0%	52.5%	46.4%	60.9%
2026-09-30T11:19:56+00:00	64.0%	59.1%	48.2%	46.4%	60.9%
2026-09-30T12:05:13+00:00	64.0%	59.1%	48.2%	46.4%	60.9%
2026-09-30T12:50:18+00:00	64.0%	59.1%	48.2%	46.4%	60.9%
2026-09-30T13:35:23+00:00	46.2%	59.1%	48.2%	46.4%	60.9%
2026-09-30T14:23:07+00:00	46.2%	59.1%	48.2%	46.4%	61.5%
2026-09-30T15:08:14+00:00	46.2%	54.5%	48.2%	46.4%	61.5%
2026-10-03T14:54:50+00:00	86.6%	59.0%	94.4%	60.5%	42.9%
2026-10-03T15:40:18+00:00	86.6%	59.0%	94.4%	60.5%	42.9%
2026-10-03T16:25:23+00:00	86.6%	59.0%	94.4%	60.5%	42.9%
2026-10-03T17:10:29+00:00	86.6%	59.0%	93.3%	60.5%	42.9%
2026-10-03T17:55:37+00:00	86.6%	59.0%	93.3%	60.5%	42.9%
2026-10-03T18:40:44+00:00	86.6%	59.0%	93.3%	60.5%	42.9%
2026-10-03T19:25:50+00:00	82.8%	59.0%	93.3%	58.8%	44.9%
2026-10-03T20:11:04+00:00	82.8%	59.0%	93.3%	58.8%	44.9%
2026-10-03T20:56:15+00:00	82.8%	59.0%	93.3%	58.8%	44.9%
2026-10-03T21:41:24+00:00	82.8%	59.0%	93.3%	58.8%	44.9%
2026-10-03T22:26:30+00:00	82.8%	59.0%	93.3%	58.8%	44.9%
2026-10-03T23:11:36+00:00	82.8%	59.0%	91.1%	58.8%	44.9%
2026-10-03T23:56:41+00:00	82.8%	59.0%	91.1%	58.8%	44.9%
2026-10-04T00:41:47+00:00	82.8%	59.0%	91.1%	58.8%	44.9%
2026-10-04T01:26:58+00:00	88.5%	59.0%	91.1%	58.8%	44.9%
2026-10-04T02:12:16+00:00	88.5%	59.0%	91.1%	58.8%	44.9%
2026-10-04T02:57:26+00:00	88.5%	59.0%	91.1%	58.8%	44.9%
2026-10-06T15:29:10+00:00	90.6%	54.6%	91.5%	64.6%	34.1%
2026-10-06T16:15:01+00:00	90.6%	54.6%	91.5%	64.6%	34.1%
2026-10-06T17:00:10+00:00	90.6%	54.6%	88.7%	64.6%	34.1%
2026-10-06T17:45:20+00:00	90.6%	54.6%	88.7%	64.6%	34.1%
2026-10-06T18:30:28+00:00	90.6%	54.6%	88.7%	64.6%	34.1%
2026-10-06T19:15:35+00:00	90.6%	54.6%	88.7%	64.6%	34.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	91%	64.0°F	1.9°F	2026-10-06 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	91%	65.5°F	3.0°F	2026-10-06 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	89%	64.5°F	2.5°F	2026-10-06 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	65%	62.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-05 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	62.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-06 14:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	55%	61.8°F	2.6°F	2026-10-06 00:00	Pending
ICON	34%	60.1°F	3.4°F	2026-10-06 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261006-TMAX-GE62
Opened Sep 29 · 11:08 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 62°F · Tue Oct 6

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗