KPIT / Fri Oct 9 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST71%Oct 08 · 02:21 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

93%

86%

60%

41%

35%

Consensus

71%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 63.7¢Risks 63.65u

ICONNO 36.3¢Risks 36.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +36.35u · ICON −36.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	5.3%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	40.5%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	81.4%	—	—	—	—	31.1%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	38.5%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	93.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	62.6%	—	—	—	—	47.3%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	31.0%	—	—	—	—	42.9%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	92.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	7.1%	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	54.6%	—	14.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	40.1%	—	78.6%	—	—	33.5%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	42.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	56.0%	—	0.8%	—	—	53.0%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	74.7%	—	1.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	81.5%	—	—	—	—	54.4%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	85.1%	—	38.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	84.8%	—	58.4%	—	85.6%	69.4%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	82.4%	—	58.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	86.8%	—	68.8%	—	—	64.5%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	95.5%	—	35.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	71.4%	—	31.7%	6.5%	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	93.5%	—	98.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	95.4%	83.0%	69.0%	33.7%	—	72.2%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	92.8%	—	74.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	94.4%	72.4%	73.6%	21.1%	—	71.7%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	75.9%	—	40.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	67.7%	26.1%	54.8%	15.4%	—	65.5%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	69.5%	0.8%	47.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	63.9%	36.1%	41.7%	40.1%	—	63.9%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	55.1%	24.6%	36.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	67.0%	67.0%	39.6%	58.7%	—	43.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	48.2%	30.2%	43.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	48.2%	25.9%	37.3%	16.0%	—	50.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	48.1%	32.6%	32.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	39.4%	29.6%	36.6%	5.9%	0.9%	44.2%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	32.6%	21.1%	40.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	35.9%	29.4%	—	19.0%	—	41.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	37.5%	33.5%	58.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	38.2%	40.3%	61.8%	48.9%	56.5%	45.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	42.2%	34.6%	64.3%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	54.6%	37.4%	52.3%	28.0%	59.2%	47.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	61.9%	59.5%	57.2%	26.3%	—	56.0%
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	65.8%	66.9%	63.4%	33.1%	43.8%	62.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	65.1%	72.0%	55.1%	23.8%	—	60.2%
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	69.3%	73.9%	61.9%	46.0%	51.3%	58.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	73.5%	72.4%	55.6%	39.0%	—	63.7%
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	77.8%	79.8%	62.8%	54.3%	69.5%	72.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	72.8%	76.4%	74.0%	54.5%	—	68.9%
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	72.4%	75.0%	76.2%	51.6%	66.8%	66.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	75.9%	84.0%	64.5%	—	81.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	93%	72.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-07 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	86%	71.9°F	4.1°F	2026-10-07 18:00	Pending
National Blend	76%	69.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-07 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	60%	68.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-07 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	68.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-07 15:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	41%	66.8°F	3.1°F	2026-10-07 00:00	Pending
ICON	35%	66.1°F	3.5°F	2026-10-07 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261009-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 03 · 03:32 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 68°F · Fri Oct 9

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗