KPIT / Fri Oct 9 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST71%Oct 08 · 02:21 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

93%

86%

60%

41%

35%

Consensus

71%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 63.7¢Risks 63.65u

ICONNO 36.3¢Risks 36.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +36.35u · ICON −36.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-08T02:21:08+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-03T03:32:56+00:00	98.4%	76.6%	94.2%	92.0%	77.3%
2026-10-03T04:18:35+00:00	98.4%	76.6%	94.2%	92.0%	77.3%
2026-10-03T05:03:40+00:00	98.4%	76.6%	95.5%	92.0%	77.3%
2026-10-03T05:48:48+00:00	98.4%	76.6%	95.5%	92.0%	77.3%
2026-10-03T06:33:54+00:00	98.4%	76.6%	95.5%	92.0%	77.3%
2026-10-03T07:18:58+00:00	98.4%	76.6%	95.5%	92.0%	77.3%
2026-10-03T08:04:09+00:00	99.1%	76.6%	95.5%	77.1%	88.8%
2026-10-03T08:50:20+00:00	99.1%	76.6%	95.5%	77.1%	88.8%
2026-10-03T09:35:24+00:00	99.1%	76.6%	95.5%	77.1%	88.8%
2026-10-03T10:20:29+00:00	99.1%	76.6%	95.5%	77.1%	88.8%
2026-10-03T11:05:37+00:00	99.1%	68.7%	96.9%	77.1%	88.8%
2026-10-03T11:51:00+00:00	99.1%	68.7%	96.9%	77.1%	88.8%
2026-10-03T12:36:04+00:00	99.1%	68.7%	96.9%	77.1%	88.8%
2026-10-03T13:21:09+00:00	99.1%	68.7%	96.9%	77.1%	88.8%
2026-10-03T14:09:33+00:00	98.3%	68.6%	96.9%	77.6%	88.8%
2026-10-06T04:07:40+00:00	76.2%	54.0%	86.0%	51.6%	39.2%
2026-10-06T04:53:29+00:00	76.2%	54.0%	92.4%	51.6%	39.2%
2026-10-06T05:38:45+00:00	76.2%	54.0%	92.4%	51.6%	39.2%
2026-10-06T06:23:51+00:00	76.2%	54.0%	92.4%	51.6%	39.2%
2026-10-06T07:08:57+00:00	76.2%	54.0%	92.4%	51.6%	39.2%
2026-10-06T07:54:03+00:00	71.0%	54.0%	92.4%	51.6%	34.1%
2026-10-06T08:39:12+00:00	71.0%	54.0%	92.4%	51.6%	34.1%
2026-10-06T09:24:20+00:00	71.0%	54.0%	92.4%	51.6%	34.1%
2026-10-06T10:09:27+00:00	71.0%	54.0%	92.4%	51.6%	34.1%
2026-10-06T10:54:34+00:00	71.0%	55.7%	91.5%	51.6%	34.1%
2026-10-06T11:39:41+00:00	71.0%	55.7%	91.5%	51.6%	34.1%
2026-10-06T12:24:47+00:00	71.0%	55.7%	91.5%	51.6%	34.1%
2026-10-06T13:09:54+00:00	71.0%	55.7%	91.5%	51.6%	34.1%
2026-10-06T13:55:01+00:00	65.3%	55.7%	91.5%	51.6%	34.2%
2026-10-06T14:43:37+00:00	65.3%	55.7%	91.5%	51.6%	34.2%
2026-10-06T15:29:11+00:00	65.3%	56.6%	91.5%	51.6%	34.2%
2026-10-06T16:15:01+00:00	65.3%	56.6%	91.5%	51.6%	34.2%
2026-10-06T17:00:10+00:00	65.3%	56.6%	86.5%	51.6%	34.2%
2026-10-06T17:45:20+00:00	65.3%	56.6%	86.5%	51.6%	34.2%
2026-10-06T18:30:28+00:00	65.3%	56.6%	86.5%	51.6%	34.2%
2026-10-06T19:15:35+00:00	65.3%	56.6%	86.5%	51.6%	34.2%
2026-10-06T20:00:52+00:00	68.6%	56.6%	86.5%	55.3%	35.1%
2026-10-06T20:47:27+00:00	68.6%	56.6%	86.5%	55.3%	35.1%
2026-10-06T21:32:36+00:00	68.6%	56.6%	86.5%	55.3%	35.1%
2026-10-06T22:17:46+00:00	68.6%	56.6%	86.5%	55.3%	35.1%
2026-10-06T23:03:02+00:00	68.6%	56.6%	88.9%	55.3%	35.1%
2026-10-06T23:48:32+00:00	68.6%	56.6%	88.9%	55.3%	35.1%
2026-10-07T00:33:48+00:00	68.6%	56.6%	88.9%	55.3%	35.1%
2026-10-07T01:19:05+00:00	68.6%	56.6%	88.9%	55.3%	35.1%
2026-10-07T02:04:24+00:00	70.2%	56.6%	88.9%	55.3%	35.1%
2026-10-07T02:49:35+00:00	70.2%	56.6%	88.9%	55.3%	35.1%
2026-10-07T03:34:42+00:00	70.2%	56.6%	88.9%	55.3%	35.1%
2026-10-07T04:19:55+00:00	70.2%	56.6%	88.9%	55.3%	35.1%
2026-10-07T05:06:53+00:00	70.2%	56.6%	93.9%	55.3%	35.1%
2026-10-07T05:52:07+00:00	70.2%	56.6%	93.9%	55.3%	35.1%
2026-10-07T06:37:40+00:00	70.2%	56.6%	93.9%	55.3%	35.1%
2026-10-07T07:23:08+00:00	71.9%	56.6%	93.9%	57.7%	36.7%
2026-10-07T08:09:22+00:00	71.9%	56.6%	93.9%	57.7%	36.7%
2026-10-07T08:54:44+00:00	71.9%	56.6%	93.9%	57.7%	36.7%
2026-10-07T09:39:52+00:00	71.9%	56.6%	93.9%	57.7%	36.7%
2026-10-07T10:24:58+00:00	71.9%	56.6%	93.9%	57.7%	36.7%
2026-10-07T11:10:28+00:00	71.9%	43.4%	93.1%	57.7%	36.7%
2026-10-07T11:55:58+00:00	71.9%	43.4%	93.1%	57.7%	36.7%
2026-10-07T12:41:05+00:00	71.9%	43.4%	93.1%	57.7%	36.7%
2026-10-07T13:26:11+00:00	75.1%	43.4%	93.1%	57.7%	36.7%
2026-10-07T14:17:31+00:00	75.2%	43.5%	93.1%	57.7%	36.7%
2026-10-07T15:02:38+00:00	75.2%	41.2%	93.1%	57.7%	36.7%
2026-10-07T15:47:45+00:00	75.2%	41.2%	93.1%	57.7%	36.7%
2026-10-07T16:32:58+00:00	75.2%	41.2%	93.1%	57.7%	36.7%
2026-10-07T17:18:45+00:00	75.2%	41.2%	89.6%	57.7%	36.7%
2026-10-07T18:03:53+00:00	75.2%	41.2%	89.6%	57.7%	36.7%
2026-10-07T18:48:59+00:00	75.2%	41.2%	89.6%	57.7%	36.7%
2026-10-07T19:34:07+00:00	82.8%	41.2%	89.6%	59.6%	34.6%
2026-10-07T20:19:19+00:00	82.8%	41.2%	89.6%	59.6%	34.6%
2026-10-07T21:04:27+00:00	82.8%	41.2%	89.6%	59.6%	34.6%
2026-10-07T21:50:00+00:00	82.8%	41.2%	89.6%	59.6%	34.6%
2026-10-07T22:35:06+00:00	82.8%	41.2%	89.6%	59.6%	34.6%
2026-10-07T23:20:13+00:00	82.8%	41.2%	92.7%	59.6%	34.6%
2026-10-08T00:05:28+00:00	82.8%	41.2%	92.7%	59.6%	34.6%
2026-10-08T00:50:45+00:00	82.8%	41.2%	92.7%	59.6%	34.6%
2026-10-08T01:35:59+00:00	85.7%	41.2%	92.7%	59.6%	34.6%
2026-10-08T02:21:08+00:00	85.7%	41.2%	92.7%	59.6%	34.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	93%	72.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-07 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	86%	71.9°F	4.1°F	2026-10-07 18:00	Pending
National Blend	76%	69.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-07 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	60%	68.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-07 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	68.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-07 15:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	41%	66.8°F	3.1°F	2026-10-07 00:00	Pending
ICON	35%	66.1°F	3.5°F	2026-10-07 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261009-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 03 · 03:32 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 68°F · Fri Oct 9

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗