KPIT / Fri Oct 9 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 70°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST83%Oct 03 · 02:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

88%

86%

71%

61%

Consensus

83%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 78.5¢Risks 78.50u

EPSNO 21.5¢Risks 21.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +21.50u · EPS −21.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	3.0%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	—	—	—	18.2%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	29.7%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	89.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	15.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	87.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	54.0%	—	—	—	4.0%	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	9.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	29.3%	—	69.2%	—	—	23.6%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	37.7%	—	31.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	44.0%	—	0.3%	—	—	41.0%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	63.9%	—	0.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	72.0%	—	—	—	—	41.9%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	76.5%	—	26.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	75.9%	—	45.5%	—	76.9%	57.1%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	72.5%	—	45.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	78.2%	—	56.1%	—	—	51.3%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	91.1%	—	23.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	58.4%	—	20.4%	3.1%	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	87.5%	—	96.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	90.7%	72.2%	55.1%	21.5%	—	58.7%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	86.1%	—	61.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	88.6%	58.3%	59.8%	11.8%	—	57.6%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	62.3%	—	26.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	52.4%	14.9%	39.0%	7.8%	—	50.0%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	54.1%	0.2%	31.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	47.5%	21.9%	26.5%	25.1%	—	47.5%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	38.2%	13.2%	22.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	50.0%	24.1%	41.3%	—	26.9%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	31.0%	16.6%	27.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	30.6%	13.4%	21.6%	7.3%	—	32.2%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	30.1%	17.7%	17.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	22.5%	15.3%	20.3%	2.0%	0.2%	26.3%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	17.0%	9.6%	22.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	19.0%	14.5%	—	8.2%	—	23.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	19.8%	16.9%	37.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	19.8%	21.3%	40.3%	28.2%	35.1%	25.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	22.3%	16.8%	42.2%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	32.0%	18.3%	30.0%	12.1%	36.3%	26.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	38.1%	35.9%	33.6%	10.8%	—	32.5%
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	42.6%	38.9%	14.4%	21.7%	37.7%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	39.8%	47.4%	30.2%	8.7%	—	34.9%
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	43.3%	48.7%	35.6%	22.0%	26.2%	31.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	47.2%	45.8%	28.8%	16.4%	—	36.3%
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	51.4%	54.3%	34.5%	26.8%	41.4%	44.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	44.0%	48.5%	45.5%	26.0%	—	39.5%
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	42.1%	45.3%	46.8%	22.6%	36.1%	36.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	45.1%	56.6%	32.4%	—	53.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	96%	79.4°F	5.6°F	2026-10-02 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	88%	75.2°F	4.9°F	2026-10-02 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	86%	76.4°F	6.3°F	2026-10-02 12:00	Pending
ICON	71%	74.8°F	9.7°F	2026-10-02 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	61%	70.7°F	4.4°F	2026-10-02 00:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	70.0°F	5.4°F	2026-10-02 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 70°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261009-TMAX-GE70
Opened Oct 02 · 13:55 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 70°F · Fri Oct 9

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗