KPIT / Fri Oct 9 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 70°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST83%Oct 03 · 02:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

88%

86%

71%

61%

Consensus

83%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 78.5¢Risks 78.50u

EPSNO 21.5¢Risks 21.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +21.50u · EPS −21.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-03T02:47:40+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-02T13:55:40+00:00	97.9%	60.7%	76.3%	91.7%	—
2026-10-02T14:44:19+00:00	97.9%	60.7%	75.6%	91.7%	—
2026-10-02T15:29:51+00:00	97.9%	60.7%	75.6%	91.7%	—
2026-10-02T16:14:59+00:00	97.9%	60.7%	75.6%	91.7%	—
2026-10-02T17:00:07+00:00	97.9%	60.7%	87.3%	91.7%	70.7%
2026-10-02T17:45:21+00:00	97.9%	60.7%	87.3%	91.7%	70.7%
2026-10-02T18:30:26+00:00	97.9%	60.7%	87.3%	91.7%	70.7%
2026-10-02T19:15:33+00:00	97.9%	60.7%	87.3%	91.7%	70.7%
2026-10-02T20:00:40+00:00	81.6%	60.7%	87.3%	91.7%	70.7%
2026-10-02T20:45:50+00:00	81.6%	60.7%	87.3%	91.7%	70.7%
2026-10-02T21:30:56+00:00	81.6%	60.7%	87.3%	91.7%	70.7%
2026-10-02T22:16:03+00:00	81.6%	60.7%	87.3%	91.7%	70.7%
2026-10-02T23:01:43+00:00	81.6%	60.7%	87.7%	86.1%	70.7%
2026-10-02T23:46:51+00:00	81.6%	60.7%	87.7%	86.2%	70.7%
2026-10-03T00:31:58+00:00	81.6%	60.7%	87.7%	86.2%	70.7%
2026-10-03T01:17:08+00:00	81.6%	60.7%	87.7%	86.2%	70.7%
2026-10-03T02:02:26+00:00	96.3%	60.7%	87.7%	86.2%	70.7%
2026-10-03T02:47:40+00:00	96.3%	60.7%	87.7%	86.2%	70.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	96%	79.4°F	5.6°F	2026-10-02 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	88%	75.2°F	4.9°F	2026-10-02 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	86%	76.4°F	6.3°F	2026-10-02 12:00	Pending
ICON	71%	74.8°F	9.7°F	2026-10-02 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	61%	70.7°F	4.4°F	2026-10-02 00:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	70.0°F	5.4°F	2026-10-02 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 70°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261009-TMAX-GE70
Opened Oct 02 · 13:55 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 70°F · Fri Oct 9

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗