KPIT / Sat Oct 10 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST88%Oct 06 · 03:22 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

92%

86%

82%

57%

Consensus

88%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 78.3¢Risks 78.30u

EPSNO 21.7¢Risks 21.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +21.70u · EPS −21.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	5.1%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	—	—	—	36.4%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	89.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	36.4%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	93.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	93.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	92.5%	—	10.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	31.0%	—	3.6%	—	—	30.0%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	88.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	86.7%	—	—	—	—	52.8%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	96.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	95.2%	—	—	—	—	40.1%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	65.7%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	72.4%	—	77.6%	—	89.9%	55.4%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	74.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	1.9%	—	—	59.3%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	90.8%	—	23.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	37.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	52.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	81.5%	30.6%	2.9%	—	—	60.7%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	84.2%	—	97.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	89.1%	26.3%	90.7%	2.5%	—	58.4%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	85.6%	—	49.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	64.3%	79.5%	70.9%	9.3%	—	71.5%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	50.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	90.3%	74.2%	80.0%	7.6%	—	73.0%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	70.1%	—	27.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	50.0%	85.1%	50.8%	—	64.8%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	46.7%	1.2%	49.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	82.7%	73.5%	63.1%	45.8%	—	79.9%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	77.4%	61.0%	43.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	84.9%	61.3%	94.6%	46.5%	—	94.6%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	65.8%	56.3%	96.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	76.3%	54.6%	—	84.0%	—	94.7%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	79.7%	74.7%	95.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	67.0%	57.7%	73.7%	79.0%	0.2%	93.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	64.7%	50.0%	83.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	67.0%	64.1%	76.5%	62.2%	—	90.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	83.1%	77.2%	88.9%	—	—	91.2%
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	82.4%	47.8%	88.6%	82.4%	—	93.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	81.7%	76.0%	72.4%	0.0%	—	91.7%
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	78.5%	66.9%	73.0%	51.2%	34.1%	81.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	83.3%	57.2%	88.0%	51.2%	—	87.4%
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	85.6%	63.4%	79.2%	62.3%	—	88.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	81.8%	50.0%	91.8%	62.7%	—	83.4%
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	76.0%	52.7%	92.6%	42.0%	40.7%	68.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	82.7%	37.7%	68.8%	50.0%	—	59.7%
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	77.8%	40.0%	75.5%	47.1%	62.8%	72.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	64.8%	51.5%	67.5%	27.2%	—	36.6%
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	75.0%	29.0%	62.4%	23.8%	42.1%	50.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	33.9%	58.2%	41.8%	—	58.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	>99%	78.4°F	4.0°F	2026-10-05 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	92%	75.4°F	4.9°F	2026-10-05 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	86%	74.7°F	5.8°F	2026-10-05 00:00	Pending
ICON	82%	73.9°F	5.8°F	2026-10-05 12:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	70.0°F	6.5°F	2026-10-05 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	57%	69.6°F	6.0°F	2026-10-05 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	69.0°F	5.1°F	2026-10-05 15:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261010-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 03 · 08:04 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 69°F · Sat Oct 10

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗