KPIT / Sat Oct 10 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST88%Oct 06 · 03:22 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

92%

86%

82%

57%

Consensus

88%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 78.3¢Risks 78.30u

EPSNO 21.7¢Risks 21.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +21.70u · EPS −21.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-06T03:22:26+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-03T08:04:09+00:00	94.3%	65.9%	83.2%	89.1%	54.5%
2026-10-03T08:50:20+00:00	94.3%	65.9%	83.2%	89.1%	54.5%
2026-10-03T09:35:24+00:00	94.3%	65.9%	83.2%	89.1%	54.5%
2026-10-03T10:20:29+00:00	94.3%	65.9%	83.2%	89.1%	54.5%
2026-10-05T16:04:35+00:00	74.2%	57.9%	97.3%	85.8%	66.0%
2026-10-05T16:50:27+00:00	74.2%	57.9%	97.3%	85.8%	66.0%
2026-10-05T17:35:34+00:00	74.2%	57.9%	97.0%	85.8%	66.0%
2026-10-05T18:20:41+00:00	74.2%	57.9%	97.0%	85.8%	66.0%
2026-10-05T19:05:48+00:00	74.2%	57.9%	97.0%	85.8%	66.0%
2026-10-05T19:50:54+00:00	94.1%	57.9%	97.0%	85.8%	82.4%
2026-10-05T20:36:04+00:00	94.1%	57.9%	97.0%	85.8%	82.4%
2026-10-05T21:21:20+00:00	94.1%	57.9%	97.0%	85.8%	82.4%
2026-10-05T22:06:29+00:00	94.1%	57.9%	97.0%	85.8%	82.4%
2026-10-05T22:51:35+00:00	94.1%	57.9%	97.0%	85.8%	82.4%
2026-10-05T23:36:41+00:00	94.1%	57.3%	99.3%	85.8%	82.4%
2026-10-06T00:21:49+00:00	94.1%	57.3%	99.3%	85.8%	82.4%
2026-10-06T01:07:02+00:00	94.1%	57.3%	99.3%	85.8%	82.4%
2026-10-06T01:52:08+00:00	92.0%	57.3%	99.3%	85.8%	82.4%
2026-10-06T02:37:18+00:00	92.0%	57.3%	99.3%	85.8%	82.4%
2026-10-06T03:22:26+00:00	92.0%	57.3%	99.3%	85.8%	82.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	>99%	78.4°F	4.0°F	2026-10-05 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	92%	75.4°F	4.9°F	2026-10-05 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	86%	74.7°F	5.8°F	2026-10-05 00:00	Pending
ICON	82%	73.9°F	5.8°F	2026-10-05 12:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	70.0°F	6.5°F	2026-10-05 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	57%	69.6°F	6.0°F	2026-10-05 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	69.0°F	5.1°F	2026-10-05 15:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261010-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 03 · 08:04 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 69°F · Sat Oct 10

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗