KPIT / Sun Oct 11 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST56%Oct 08 · 02:21 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

75%

65%

62%

49%

28%

Consensus

56%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 51.4¢Risks 51.40u

HRESNO 48.6¢Risks 48.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +48.60u · HRES −48.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—	4.9%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	93.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	45.8%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	38.0%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	17.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	0.8%	—	—	36.4%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	88.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	88.6%	—	—	—	—	56.4%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	93.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	82.2%	—	—	—	—	67.0%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	94.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	95.9%	—	—	—	42.1%	75.3%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	94.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	97.9%	—	—	—	—	67.6%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	98.5%	—	88.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	94.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	94.8%	—	96.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	96.1%	—	—	—	—	69.3%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	92.3%	—	94.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	96.8%	—	85.9%	—	—	65.8%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	90.6%	—	73.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	87.5%	25.4%	17.6%	—	—	75.6%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	89.0%	—	15.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	94.4%	74.8%	5.8%	0.6%	—	86.3%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	93.7%	—	75.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	32.3%	5.3%	92.1%	55.1%	—	80.1%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	76.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	52.3%	53.0%	4.8%	73.0%	—	75.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	17.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	20.6%	11.1%	41.3%	16.9%	—	80.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	34.1%	6.2%	88.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	37.7%	12.5%	—	12.9%	—	62.3%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	39.0%	12.3%	9.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	35.4%	43.0%	33.8%	12.7%	—	34.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	39.3%	33.4%	13.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	30.6%	52.8%	22.3%	4.8%	—	19.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	10.0%	13.7%	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	27.9%	5.4%	6.2%	3.5%	—	24.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	33.5%	17.0%	21.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	18.3%	6.7%	2.8%	15.7%	1.7%	25.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	16.9%	11.6%	20.5%	—	—	42.6%
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	8.5%	11.9%	2.8%	11.9%	—	45.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	9.7%	19.8%	6.7%	0.4%	—	61.1%
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	14.7%	11.0%	16.8%	10.0%	2.4%	60.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	11.9%	7.8%	31.4%	—	50.0%
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	7.5%	2.8%	7.5%	7.5%	—	38.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	7.7%	2.8%	9.8%	6.0%	—	21.9%
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	3.2%	2.2%	5.7%	3.5%	1.6%	16.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	2.0%	6.2%	1.7%	—	8.1%
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	0.7%	11.5%	1.3%	0.9%	1.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.7%	0.4%	0.0%	—	0.4%
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.2%	0.7%	0.7%	1.5%	2.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.3%	3.4%	—	0.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	75%	71.7°F	4.8°F	2026-10-07 00:00	Pending
ICON	65%	70.3°F	4.8°F	2026-10-07 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	62%	69.9°F	4.6°F	2026-10-07 18:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	69.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-07 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	69.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-07 15:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	49%	68.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-07 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	28%	65.6°F	5.0°F	2026-10-07 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261011-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 06 · 15:29 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 69°F · Sun Oct 11

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗