KPIT / Sun Oct 11 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST56%Oct 08 · 02:21 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

75%

65%

62%

49%

28%

Consensus

56%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 51.4¢Risks 51.40u

HRESNO 48.6¢Risks 48.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +48.60u · HRES −48.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-08T02:21:08+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-06T15:29:11+00:00	66.6%	88.9%	83.3%	85.6%	26.2%
2026-10-06T16:15:01+00:00	66.6%	88.9%	83.3%	85.6%	26.2%
2026-10-06T17:00:10+00:00	66.6%	88.9%	65.4%	85.6%	26.2%
2026-10-06T17:45:20+00:00	66.6%	88.9%	65.4%	85.6%	26.2%
2026-10-06T18:30:28+00:00	66.6%	88.9%	65.4%	85.6%	26.2%
2026-10-06T19:15:35+00:00	66.6%	88.9%	65.4%	85.6%	26.2%
2026-10-06T20:00:52+00:00	70.9%	88.9%	65.4%	53.4%	29.7%
2026-10-06T20:47:27+00:00	70.9%	88.9%	65.4%	53.4%	29.7%
2026-10-06T21:32:36+00:00	70.9%	88.9%	65.4%	53.4%	29.7%
2026-10-06T22:17:46+00:00	70.9%	88.9%	65.4%	53.4%	29.7%
2026-10-06T23:03:02+00:00	70.9%	88.9%	75.6%	53.4%	29.7%
2026-10-06T23:48:32+00:00	70.9%	88.9%	75.6%	53.4%	29.7%
2026-10-07T00:33:48+00:00	70.9%	88.9%	75.6%	53.4%	29.7%
2026-10-07T01:19:05+00:00	70.9%	88.9%	75.6%	53.4%	29.7%
2026-10-07T02:04:24+00:00	71.6%	88.9%	75.6%	53.4%	29.7%
2026-10-07T02:49:35+00:00	71.6%	88.9%	75.6%	53.4%	29.7%
2026-10-07T03:34:42+00:00	71.6%	88.9%	75.6%	53.4%	29.7%
2026-10-07T04:19:56+00:00	71.6%	88.9%	75.6%	53.4%	29.7%
2026-10-07T05:06:53+00:00	71.6%	88.9%	75.6%	53.4%	29.7%
2026-10-07T05:52:07+00:00	71.6%	88.9%	75.6%	53.4%	29.7%
2026-10-07T06:37:40+00:00	71.6%	88.9%	75.6%	53.4%	29.7%
2026-10-07T07:23:08+00:00	69.1%	88.9%	75.6%	35.9%	55.9%
2026-10-07T08:09:22+00:00	69.1%	88.9%	75.6%	35.9%	55.9%
2026-10-07T08:54:44+00:00	69.1%	88.9%	75.6%	35.9%	55.9%
2026-10-07T09:39:52+00:00	69.1%	88.9%	75.6%	35.9%	55.9%
2026-10-07T10:24:58+00:00	69.1%	88.9%	75.6%	35.9%	55.9%
2026-10-07T11:10:28+00:00	69.1%	76.0%	73.3%	35.9%	55.9%
2026-10-07T11:55:58+00:00	69.1%	76.0%	73.3%	35.9%	55.9%
2026-10-07T12:41:05+00:00	69.1%	76.0%	73.3%	35.9%	55.9%
2026-10-07T13:26:11+00:00	73.5%	76.0%	73.3%	35.9%	55.9%
2026-10-07T14:17:31+00:00	73.6%	75.8%	73.3%	35.9%	55.9%
2026-10-07T15:02:38+00:00	73.6%	74.5%	73.3%	35.9%	55.9%
2026-10-07T15:47:45+00:00	73.6%	74.7%	73.3%	35.9%	55.9%
2026-10-07T16:32:58+00:00	73.6%	74.7%	73.3%	35.9%	55.9%
2026-10-07T17:18:45+00:00	73.6%	74.7%	60.7%	35.9%	55.9%
2026-10-07T18:03:53+00:00	73.6%	74.7%	60.7%	35.9%	55.9%
2026-10-07T18:48:59+00:00	73.6%	74.7%	60.7%	35.9%	55.9%
2026-10-07T19:34:07+00:00	65.2%	74.7%	60.7%	28.1%	64.8%
2026-10-07T20:19:19+00:00	65.2%	74.7%	60.7%	28.1%	64.8%
2026-10-07T21:04:27+00:00	65.2%	74.7%	60.7%	28.1%	64.8%
2026-10-07T21:50:00+00:00	65.2%	74.7%	60.7%	28.1%	64.8%
2026-10-07T22:35:06+00:00	65.2%	74.7%	60.7%	28.1%	64.8%
2026-10-07T23:20:13+00:00	65.2%	74.7%	48.9%	28.1%	64.8%
2026-10-08T00:05:28+00:00	65.2%	74.7%	48.9%	28.1%	64.8%
2026-10-08T00:50:46+00:00	65.2%	74.7%	48.9%	28.1%	64.8%
2026-10-08T01:35:59+00:00	62.0%	74.7%	48.9%	28.1%	64.8%
2026-10-08T02:21:08+00:00	62.0%	74.7%	48.9%	28.1%	64.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	75%	71.7°F	4.8°F	2026-10-07 00:00	Pending
ICON	65%	70.3°F	4.8°F	2026-10-07 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	62%	69.9°F	4.6°F	2026-10-07 18:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	69.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-07 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	69.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-07 15:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	49%	68.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-07 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	28%	65.6°F	5.0°F	2026-10-07 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261011-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 06 · 15:29 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 69°F · Sun Oct 11

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗