KPIT / Mon Oct 12 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST53%Oct 12 · 07:02 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

79%

61%

56%

43%

15%

Consensus

53%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 47.1¢Risks 47.10u

ICONNO 52.9¢Risks 52.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +52.90u · ICON −52.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.0%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	35.4%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	19.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	6.9%	—	—	30.6%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	11.9%	—	—	—	—	59.5%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	83.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	95.4%	—	—	—	—	52.2%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	92.5%	—	22.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	93.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	93.2%	—	31.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	84.8%	—	—	—	—	52.3%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	81.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	87.9%	—	17.3%	—	—	57.2%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	81.9%	—	62.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	76.1%	—	2.5%	—	—	63.5%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	6.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	9.9%	—	56.5%	—	—	74.3%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	84.1%	—	4.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	56.7%	1.4%	7.7%	—	—	65.8%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	15.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	20.4%	61.8%	45.8%	20.4%	—	75.4%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	52.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	58.0%	45.6%	4.4%	28.5%	—	72.2%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	34.7%	—	13.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	91.0%	61.3%	—	31.6%	—	56.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	83.6%	—	34.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	86.0%	57.9%	85.5%	23.6%	—	56.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	83.7%	7.9%	77.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	70.0%	59.9%	68.5%	24.5%	—	48.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	38.2%	14.2%	26.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	31.4%	22.8%	6.5%	11.3%	—	56.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	37.6%	41.1%	11.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	28.2%	56.4%	3.6%	22.3%	—	44.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	39.7%	47.2%	14.8%	—	—	52.8%
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	53.9%	4.6%	12.6%	—	60.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	49.0%	51.0%	27.4%	—	—	64.7%
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	43.9%	50.0%	51.0%	30.3%	0.4%	72.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	38.5%	72.1%	68.4%	—	—	63.5%
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	35.1%	54.4%	69.9%	19.0%	—	60.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	32.6%	53.4%	63.3%	0.2%	—	63.3%
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	43.0%	52.3%	27.0%	22.4%	—	63.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	56.0%	39.3%	11.9%	13.9%	—	66.4%
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	47.5%	43.8%	56.2%	16.6%	27.6%	57.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	33.7%	47.4%	70.9%	12.2%	—	60.2%
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	18.2%	21.0%	40.7%	31.9%	21.0%	66.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	11.1%	23.2%	52.8%	26.5%	—	63.7%
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	21.2%	17.2%	52.9%	29.3%	7.8%	73.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	19.2%	29.8%	39.5%	26.0%	—	74.0%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	27.6%	33.1%	30.3%	40.6%	25.0%	65.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	24.1%	26.7%	32.4%	—	45.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	79%	73.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-11 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	61%	71.3°F	2.9°F	2026-10-11 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	71.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-12 02:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	71.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	56%	71.1°F	4.0°F	2026-10-11 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	43%	69.9°F	3.3°F	2026-10-11 00:00	Pending
ICON	15%	66.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-11 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261012-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 06 · 04:07 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 71°F · Mon Oct 12

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗