KPIT / Mon Oct 12 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST53%Oct 12 · 07:02 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

79%

61%

56%

43%

15%

Consensus

53%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 47.1¢Risks 47.10u

ICONNO 52.9¢Risks 52.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +52.90u · ICON −52.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-12T07:02:32+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-06T04:07:40+00:00	63.3%	66.7%	90.0%	69.2%	72.8%
2026-10-06T04:53:29+00:00	63.3%	66.7%	93.6%	69.2%	72.8%
2026-10-06T05:38:45+00:00	63.3%	66.7%	93.6%	69.2%	72.8%
2026-10-06T06:23:51+00:00	63.3%	66.7%	93.6%	69.2%	72.8%
2026-10-06T07:08:57+00:00	63.3%	66.7%	93.6%	69.2%	72.8%
2026-10-06T07:54:03+00:00	83.2%	66.7%	93.6%	69.2%	65.3%
2026-10-06T08:39:12+00:00	83.2%	66.7%	93.6%	69.2%	65.3%
2026-10-06T09:24:20+00:00	83.2%	66.7%	93.6%	69.2%	65.3%
2026-10-06T10:09:27+00:00	83.2%	66.7%	93.6%	69.2%	65.3%
2026-10-06T10:54:34+00:00	83.2%	59.9%	86.5%	69.2%	65.3%
2026-10-06T11:39:41+00:00	83.2%	59.9%	86.5%	69.2%	65.3%
2026-10-06T12:24:47+00:00	83.2%	59.9%	86.5%	69.2%	65.3%
2026-10-06T13:09:54+00:00	83.2%	59.9%	86.5%	69.2%	65.3%
2026-10-06T13:55:01+00:00	66.1%	59.9%	86.5%	69.3%	65.3%
2026-10-06T14:43:37+00:00	66.1%	59.9%	86.5%	69.3%	65.3%
2026-10-06T15:29:11+00:00	66.1%	61.5%	86.5%	69.3%	65.3%
2026-10-06T16:15:01+00:00	66.1%	61.5%	86.5%	69.3%	65.3%
2026-10-06T17:00:10+00:00	66.1%	61.5%	82.3%	69.3%	65.3%
2026-10-06T17:45:20+00:00	66.1%	61.5%	82.3%	69.3%	65.3%
2026-10-06T18:30:28+00:00	66.1%	61.5%	82.3%	69.3%	65.3%
2026-10-06T19:15:35+00:00	66.1%	61.5%	82.3%	69.3%	65.3%
2026-10-06T20:00:52+00:00	98.0%	61.5%	82.3%	28.8%	75.7%
2026-10-06T20:47:27+00:00	98.0%	61.5%	82.3%	28.8%	75.7%
2026-10-06T21:32:36+00:00	98.0%	61.5%	82.3%	28.8%	75.7%
2026-10-06T22:17:46+00:00	98.0%	61.5%	82.3%	28.8%	75.7%
2026-10-06T23:03:02+00:00	98.0%	61.5%	93.0%	28.8%	75.7%
2026-10-06T23:48:32+00:00	98.0%	61.5%	93.0%	28.8%	75.7%
2026-10-07T00:33:48+00:00	98.0%	61.5%	93.0%	28.8%	75.7%
2026-10-07T01:19:05+00:00	98.0%	61.5%	93.0%	28.8%	75.7%
2026-10-07T02:04:24+00:00	95.7%	61.5%	93.0%	28.8%	75.7%
2026-10-07T02:49:35+00:00	95.7%	61.5%	93.0%	28.8%	75.7%
2026-10-07T03:34:42+00:00	95.7%	61.5%	93.0%	28.8%	75.7%
2026-10-07T04:19:56+00:00	95.7%	61.5%	93.0%	28.8%	75.7%
2026-10-07T05:06:53+00:00	95.7%	61.5%	90.7%	28.8%	75.7%
2026-10-07T05:52:07+00:00	95.7%	61.5%	90.7%	28.8%	75.7%
2026-10-07T06:37:40+00:00	95.7%	61.5%	90.7%	28.8%	75.7%
2026-10-07T07:23:08+00:00	97.1%	61.5%	90.7%	60.9%	72.1%
2026-10-07T08:09:22+00:00	97.1%	61.5%	90.7%	60.9%	72.1%
2026-10-07T08:54:44+00:00	97.1%	61.5%	90.7%	60.9%	72.1%
2026-10-07T09:39:52+00:00	97.1%	61.5%	90.7%	60.9%	72.1%
2026-10-07T10:24:58+00:00	97.1%	61.5%	90.7%	60.9%	72.1%
2026-10-07T11:10:28+00:00	97.1%	45.4%	90.1%	60.9%	72.1%
2026-10-07T11:55:58+00:00	97.1%	45.4%	90.1%	60.9%	72.1%
2026-10-07T12:41:05+00:00	97.1%	45.4%	90.1%	60.9%	72.1%
2026-10-07T13:26:11+00:00	96.2%	45.4%	90.1%	60.9%	72.1%
2026-10-07T14:17:31+00:00	96.2%	45.5%	90.1%	60.9%	72.1%
2026-10-07T15:02:38+00:00	96.2%	43.2%	90.1%	60.9%	72.1%
2026-10-07T15:47:45+00:00	96.2%	43.2%	90.1%	60.9%	72.1%
2026-10-08T03:06:22+00:00	71.6%	43.2%	77.1%	58.9%	73.8%
2026-10-08T03:52:31+00:00	71.6%	43.2%	77.1%	58.9%	73.8%
2026-10-08T04:37:38+00:00	71.6%	43.2%	77.1%	58.9%	73.8%
2026-10-08T05:22:44+00:00	71.6%	43.2%	51.0%	58.9%	73.8%
2026-10-08T06:07:55+00:00	71.6%	43.2%	51.0%	58.9%	73.8%
2026-10-08T06:53:02+00:00	71.6%	43.2%	51.0%	58.9%	73.8%
2026-10-08T07:38:12+00:00	66.8%	43.2%	51.0%	65.5%	34.5%
2026-10-08T08:24:43+00:00	66.8%	43.2%	51.0%	65.5%	34.5%
2026-10-08T09:09:49+00:00	66.8%	43.2%	51.0%	65.5%	34.5%
2026-10-08T09:54:56+00:00	66.8%	43.2%	51.0%	65.5%	34.5%
2026-10-08T10:40:02+00:00	66.8%	43.2%	51.0%	65.5%	34.5%
2026-10-08T11:25:16+00:00	66.8%	42.6%	47.8%	65.5%	34.5%
2026-10-08T12:10:40+00:00	66.8%	42.6%	47.8%	65.5%	34.5%
2026-10-08T12:55:49+00:00	66.8%	42.6%	47.8%	65.5%	34.5%
2026-10-08T13:40:56+00:00	72.9%	42.6%	47.8%	65.5%	34.5%
2026-10-08T14:30:25+00:00	72.9%	42.7%	47.8%	65.5%	35.3%
2026-10-08T15:15:50+00:00	72.9%	42.6%	47.8%	65.5%	35.3%
2026-10-08T16:01:32+00:00	72.9%	42.6%	47.8%	65.5%	35.3%
2026-10-08T16:46:38+00:00	72.9%	42.6%	47.8%	65.5%	35.3%
2026-10-08T17:31:44+00:00	72.9%	42.6%	47.8%	65.5%	35.3%
2026-10-08T18:16:49+00:00	72.9%	42.6%	47.8%	65.5%	35.3%
2026-10-08T19:01:54+00:00	72.9%	42.6%	47.8%	65.5%	35.3%
2026-10-08T19:46:59+00:00	64.4%	42.6%	47.8%	54.8%	68.5%
2026-10-08T20:32:12+00:00	64.4%	42.6%	47.8%	54.8%	68.5%
2026-10-08T21:17:20+00:00	64.4%	42.6%	47.8%	54.8%	68.5%
2026-10-08T22:02:30+00:00	64.4%	42.6%	47.8%	54.8%	68.5%
2026-10-08T22:47:36+00:00	64.4%	42.6%	47.8%	54.8%	68.5%
2026-10-08T23:32:43+00:00	64.4%	42.6%	60.7%	54.8%	68.5%
2026-10-09T00:17:55+00:00	64.4%	42.6%	60.7%	54.8%	68.5%
2026-10-09T01:03:07+00:00	64.4%	42.6%	60.7%	54.8%	68.5%
2026-10-09T01:48:12+00:00	75.0%	42.6%	60.7%	54.8%	68.5%
2026-10-09T02:33:33+00:00	75.0%	42.6%	60.7%	54.8%	68.5%
2026-10-09T03:18:49+00:00	75.0%	42.6%	60.7%	54.8%	68.5%
2026-10-09T04:05:04+00:00	75.0%	42.6%	60.7%	54.8%	68.5%
2026-10-09T04:50:12+00:00	75.0%	42.6%	60.7%	54.8%	68.5%
2026-10-09T05:35:18+00:00	75.0%	42.6%	62.7%	54.8%	68.5%
2026-10-09T06:20:26+00:00	75.0%	42.6%	62.7%	54.8%	68.5%
2026-10-09T07:05:32+00:00	75.0%	42.6%	62.7%	54.8%	68.5%
2026-10-09T07:50:45+00:00	82.3%	42.6%	62.7%	52.7%	60.0%
2026-10-09T08:37:12+00:00	82.3%	42.6%	62.7%	52.7%	60.0%
2026-10-09T09:22:17+00:00	82.3%	42.6%	62.7%	52.7%	60.0%
2026-10-09T10:07:23+00:00	82.3%	42.6%	62.7%	52.7%	60.0%
2026-10-09T10:52:29+00:00	82.3%	42.6%	62.7%	52.7%	60.0%
2026-10-09T11:37:36+00:00	82.3%	42.6%	62.7%	52.7%	60.0%
2026-10-09T12:23:10+00:00	82.3%	46.9%	62.7%	52.7%	60.0%
2026-10-09T13:08:25+00:00	82.3%	46.9%	62.7%	52.7%	60.0%
2026-10-09T13:53:30+00:00	82.3%	46.9%	62.7%	52.7%	61.0%
2026-10-09T14:42:07+00:00	82.3%	46.9%	62.7%	52.7%	61.0%
2026-10-09T15:27:17+00:00	82.3%	49.0%	62.7%	52.7%	61.0%
2026-10-09T16:13:13+00:00	82.3%	49.0%	62.7%	52.7%	61.0%
2026-10-09T16:58:25+00:00	82.3%	49.0%	69.4%	52.7%	61.0%
2026-10-09T17:43:32+00:00	82.3%	49.0%	69.4%	52.7%	61.0%
2026-10-09T18:28:38+00:00	82.3%	49.0%	69.4%	52.7%	61.0%
2026-10-09T19:13:43+00:00	82.3%	49.0%	69.4%	52.7%	61.0%
2026-10-09T19:58:50+00:00	79.2%	49.0%	69.4%	79.6%	57.0%
2026-10-09T20:44:01+00:00	79.2%	49.0%	69.4%	79.6%	57.0%
2026-10-09T21:29:10+00:00	79.2%	49.0%	69.4%	79.6%	57.0%
2026-10-09T22:14:36+00:00	79.2%	49.0%	69.4%	79.6%	57.0%
2026-10-09T22:59:41+00:00	79.2%	49.0%	69.4%	79.6%	57.0%
2026-10-09T23:44:48+00:00	79.2%	49.0%	69.4%	79.6%	57.0%
2026-10-10T00:29:59+00:00	79.2%	49.0%	69.4%	79.6%	57.0%
2026-10-10T01:15:14+00:00	79.2%	49.0%	69.4%	79.6%	57.0%
2026-10-10T02:00:41+00:00	75.7%	49.0%	69.4%	79.6%	57.0%
2026-10-10T02:45:58+00:00	75.7%	49.0%	69.4%	79.6%	57.0%
2026-10-10T03:31:21+00:00	75.7%	49.0%	69.4%	79.6%	57.0%
2026-10-10T04:16:36+00:00	75.7%	49.0%	69.4%	79.6%	57.0%
2026-10-10T05:03:03+00:00	75.7%	49.0%	64.0%	79.6%	57.0%
2026-10-10T05:48:13+00:00	75.7%	49.0%	64.0%	79.6%	57.0%
2026-10-10T06:33:20+00:00	75.7%	49.0%	64.0%	79.6%	57.0%
2026-10-10T07:18:25+00:00	75.7%	49.0%	64.0%	79.6%	57.0%
2026-10-10T08:03:30+00:00	74.4%	49.0%	64.0%	79.6%	51.1%
2026-10-10T08:48:39+00:00	74.4%	49.0%	64.0%	79.6%	51.1%
2026-10-10T09:33:44+00:00	74.4%	49.0%	64.0%	79.6%	51.1%
2026-10-10T10:18:54+00:00	74.4%	49.0%	64.0%	79.6%	51.1%
2026-10-10T11:04:03+00:00	74.4%	46.9%	64.0%	79.6%	51.1%
2026-10-10T11:49:13+00:00	74.4%	46.9%	64.0%	79.6%	51.1%
2026-10-10T12:34:18+00:00	74.4%	46.9%	64.0%	79.6%	51.1%
2026-10-10T13:19:24+00:00	74.4%	46.9%	64.0%	79.6%	51.1%
2026-10-10T14:04:42+00:00	72.8%	46.9%	62.8%	79.6%	51.1%
2026-10-10T14:53:45+00:00	72.8%	46.9%	62.8%	79.6%	51.1%
2026-10-10T15:39:25+00:00	72.8%	46.9%	62.8%	79.6%	51.1%
2026-10-10T16:24:36+00:00	72.8%	46.9%	62.8%	79.6%	51.1%
2026-10-10T17:09:43+00:00	72.8%	46.9%	62.6%	79.6%	51.1%
2026-10-10T17:54:52+00:00	72.8%	46.9%	62.6%	79.6%	51.1%
2026-10-10T18:40:19+00:00	72.8%	46.9%	62.6%	79.6%	51.1%
2026-10-10T19:25:30+00:00	79.6%	46.9%	62.6%	79.6%	48.9%
2026-10-10T20:10:40+00:00	79.6%	46.9%	62.6%	79.6%	48.9%
2026-10-10T20:55:54+00:00	79.6%	46.9%	62.6%	79.6%	48.9%
2026-10-10T21:41:27+00:00	79.6%	46.9%	62.6%	79.6%	48.9%
2026-10-10T22:26:41+00:00	79.6%	46.9%	62.6%	78.8%	48.9%
2026-10-10T23:13:29+00:00	79.7%	46.9%	68.6%	78.2%	48.9%
2026-10-10T23:58:37+00:00	79.7%	46.9%	68.6%	78.2%	48.9%
2026-10-11T00:43:43+00:00	79.7%	46.9%	68.6%	78.2%	48.9%
2026-10-11T01:28:58+00:00	86.4%	46.9%	68.6%	78.2%	48.9%
2026-10-11T02:14:10+00:00	86.4%	46.9%	68.6%	78.2%	48.9%
2026-10-11T02:59:17+00:00	86.4%	46.9%	68.6%	78.2%	48.9%
2026-10-11T03:44:33+00:00	86.4%	46.9%	68.6%	78.2%	48.9%
2026-10-11T04:30:38+00:00	86.4%	46.9%	68.6%	78.2%	48.9%
2026-10-11T05:16:01+00:00	86.4%	46.9%	66.3%	78.2%	48.9%
2026-10-11T06:01:14+00:00	86.4%	46.9%	66.3%	78.2%	48.9%
2026-10-11T06:46:23+00:00	86.4%	46.9%	66.3%	78.2%	48.9%
2026-10-11T07:31:36+00:00	82.4%	46.9%	66.3%	74.9%	48.9%
2026-10-11T08:18:00+00:00	82.4%	46.9%	66.3%	74.9%	48.9%
2026-10-11T09:03:06+00:00	82.4%	46.9%	66.3%	74.9%	48.9%
2026-10-11T09:48:14+00:00	82.4%	46.9%	66.3%	74.9%	48.9%
2026-10-11T10:33:31+00:00	82.4%	46.9%	66.3%	74.9%	48.9%
2026-10-11T11:19:41+00:00	82.4%	43.0%	64.6%	74.9%	48.9%
2026-10-11T12:05:20+00:00	82.4%	43.0%	64.6%	74.9%	48.9%
2026-10-11T12:50:26+00:00	82.4%	43.0%	64.6%	74.9%	48.9%
2026-10-11T13:35:37+00:00	74.3%	43.0%	64.6%	74.9%	48.9%
2026-10-11T14:26:10+00:00	74.3%	43.1%	64.6%	74.9%	48.9%
2026-10-11T15:11:24+00:00	74.3%	42.8%	64.6%	74.9%	48.9%
2026-10-11T15:57:16+00:00	74.3%	42.8%	64.6%	74.9%	48.9%
2026-10-11T16:42:24+00:00	74.3%	42.8%	64.6%	74.9%	48.9%
2026-10-11T17:27:58+00:00	74.3%	42.8%	67.1%	74.9%	48.9%
2026-10-11T18:13:06+00:00	74.3%	42.8%	67.1%	74.9%	48.9%
2026-10-11T18:58:16+00:00	74.3%	42.8%	67.1%	74.9%	48.9%
2026-10-11T19:43:28+00:00	62.8%	42.8%	67.1%	78.9%	15.3%
2026-10-11T20:28:37+00:00	62.8%	42.8%	67.1%	78.9%	15.3%
2026-10-11T21:13:48+00:00	62.8%	42.8%	67.1%	78.9%	15.3%
2026-10-11T21:58:57+00:00	62.8%	42.8%	67.1%	78.9%	15.3%
2026-10-11T22:44:08+00:00	62.8%	42.8%	67.1%	78.9%	15.3%
2026-10-11T23:29:26+00:00	62.8%	42.8%	55.4%	78.9%	15.3%
2026-10-12T00:14:42+00:00	62.8%	42.8%	55.4%	78.9%	15.3%
2026-10-12T01:00:07+00:00	62.8%	42.8%	55.4%	78.9%	15.3%
2026-10-12T01:45:18+00:00	56.0%	42.8%	55.4%	78.9%	15.3%
2026-10-12T02:30:27+00:00	56.0%	42.8%	55.4%	78.9%	15.3%
2026-10-12T03:15:36+00:00	56.0%	42.8%	55.4%	78.9%	15.3%
2026-10-12T04:01:00+00:00	56.0%	42.8%	55.4%	78.9%	15.3%
2026-10-12T04:47:13+00:00	56.0%	42.8%	55.4%	78.9%	15.3%
2026-10-12T05:32:19+00:00	56.0%	42.8%	60.8%	78.9%	15.3%
2026-10-12T06:17:27+00:00	56.0%	42.8%	60.8%	78.9%	15.3%
2026-10-12T07:02:32+00:00	56.0%	42.8%	60.8%	78.9%	15.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	79%	73.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-11 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	61%	71.3°F	2.9°F	2026-10-11 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	71.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-12 02:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	71.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	56%	71.1°F	4.0°F	2026-10-11 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	43%	69.9°F	3.3°F	2026-10-11 00:00	Pending
ICON	15%	66.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-11 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261012-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 06 · 04:07 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 71°F · Mon Oct 12

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗