KPIT / Mon Oct 12 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 72°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST67%Oct 05 · 10:43 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

75%

64%

57%

16%

Consensus

67%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 53.1¢Risks 53.10u

ICONNO 46.9¢Risks 46.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +46.90u · ICON −46.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.7%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	16.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	5.3%	—	—	26.1%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	77.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	9.5%	—	—	—	—	54.3%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	93.9%	—	—	—	—	46.7%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	90.4%	—	18.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	91.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	91.1%	—	26.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	46.5%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	77.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	84.6%	—	13.7%	—	—	51.2%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	77.6%	—	56.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	70.9%	—	1.7%	—	—	57.5%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	4.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	50.0%	—	—	68.8%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	79.7%	—	3.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	0.9%	5.6%	—	—	59.4%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	12.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	15.8%	54.9%	38.9%	15.8%	—	69.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	27.7%	—	45.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	50.7%	38.5%	2.9%	22.6%	—	65.7%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	28.1%	—	10.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	87.5%	53.8%	—	25.1%	—	48.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	78.3%	—	27.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	81.1%	50.0%	80.5%	17.9%	—	48.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	78.2%	5.3%	71.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	62.3%	51.7%	60.7%	18.4%	—	40.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	30.3%	9.9%	19.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	24.1%	16.7%	4.1%	7.7%	—	47.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	29.4%	32.6%	7.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	20.9%	47.2%	2.1%	16.0%	—	35.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	30.9%	37.9%	10.0%	—	—	43.4%
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	40.4%	44.2%	2.7%	8.2%	—	51.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	39.1%	41.1%	19.7%	—	—	55.0%
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	34.0%	39.8%	40.8%	21.9%	0.2%	63.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	28.8%	62.5%	58.4%	—	—	53.2%
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	25.5%	43.5%	59.7%	12.5%	—	50.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	23.1%	42.2%	52.2%	0.1%	—	52.2%
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	32.0%	40.8%	18.3%	14.7%	—	52.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	44.0%	28.3%	7.0%	8.2%	—	54.8%
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	35.4%	32.0%	43.8%	10.0%	18.2%	45.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	22.8%	34.9%	59.0%	6.8%	—	47.4%
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	10.7%	12.7%	28.4%	21.0%	12.7%	54.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	5.8%	13.9%	39.0%	16.4%	—	50.0%
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	12.2%	9.5%	38.6%	18.2%	3.7%	60.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	10.5%	18.1%	26.0%	15.3%	—	60.5%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	16.1%	20.3%	18.1%	26.3%	14.2%	50.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	13.2%	15.0%	19.2%	—	29.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	90%	78.4°F	5.3°F	2026-10-04 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	75%	75.3°F	5.6°F	2026-10-05 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	64%	73.7°F	6.4°F	2026-10-05 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	57%	72.5°F	5.5°F	2026-10-04 00:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	72.0°F	6.5°F	2026-10-05 00:00	Pending
ICON	16%	61.8°F	9.7°F	2026-10-05 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 72°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261012-TMAX-GE72
Opened Oct 05 · 07:41 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 72°F · Mon Oct 12

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗