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KPIT / Mon Oct 12 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 72°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST67%Oct 05 · 10:43 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
90%
AIFS
75%
HRES
64%
EPS
57%
ICON
16%
Consensus
67%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 53.1¢Risks 53.10u
VS
ICONNO 46.9¢Risks 46.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +46.90u · ICON −46.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 75.2% · 2026-10-05T07:41:46+00:00AIFS Single: 75.2% · 2026-10-05T08:28:13+00:00AIFS Single: 75.2% · 2026-10-05T09:13:29+00:00AIFS Single: 75.2% · 2026-10-05T09:58:35+00:00AIFS Single: 75.2% · 2026-10-05T10:43:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 57.3% · 2026-10-05T07:41:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 57.3% · 2026-10-05T08:28:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 57.3% · 2026-10-05T09:13:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 57.3% · 2026-10-05T09:58:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 57.3% · 2026-10-05T10:43:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 90.3% · 2026-10-05T07:41:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 90.3% · 2026-10-05T08:28:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 90.3% · 2026-10-05T09:13:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 90.3% · 2026-10-05T09:58:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 90.3% · 2026-10-05T10:43:41+00:00IFS HRES: 63.5% · 2026-10-05T07:41:46+00:00IFS HRES: 63.5% · 2026-10-05T08:28:13+00:00IFS HRES: 63.5% · 2026-10-05T09:13:29+00:00IFS HRES: 63.5% · 2026-10-05T09:58:35+00:00IFS HRES: 63.5% · 2026-10-05T10:43:41+00:00ICON: 15.9% · 2026-10-05T07:41:46+00:00ICON: 15.9% · 2026-10-05T08:28:13+00:00ICON: 15.9% · 2026-10-05T09:13:29+00:00ICON: 15.9% · 2026-10-05T09:58:35+00:00ICON: 15.9% · 2026-10-05T10:43:41+00:0010-05 07:4110-05 09:1310-05 10:43
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-05T10:43:41+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-05T07:41:46+00:0075.2%57.3%90.3%63.5%15.9%
2026-10-05T08:28:13+00:0075.2%57.3%90.3%63.5%15.9%
2026-10-05T09:13:29+00:0075.2%57.3%90.3%63.5%15.9%
2026-10-05T09:58:35+00:0075.2%57.3%90.3%63.5%15.9%
2026-10-05T10:43:41+00:0075.2%57.3%90.3%63.5%15.9%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 290%78.4°F5.3°F2026-10-04 12:00Pending
AIFS Single75%75.3°F5.6°F2026-10-05 00:00Pending
IFS HRES64%73.7°F6.4°F2026-10-05 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble57%72.5°F5.5°F2026-10-04 00:00Pending
National Blend53%72.0°F6.5°F2026-10-05 00:00Pending
ICON16%61.8°F9.7°F2026-10-05 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 72°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261012-TMAX-GE72
Opened Oct 05 · 07:41 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 72°F · Mon Oct 12

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗