KPIT / Mon Oct 12 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST63%Oct 06 · 03:22 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

81%

66%

57%

52%

49%

Consensus

63%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 65.1¢Risks 65.10u

AIFSNO 34.9¢Risks 34.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +34.90u · AIFS −34.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.5%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	16.5%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	13.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	4.0%	—	—	22.0%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	29.7%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	7.4%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	92.0%	—	—	—	—	41.3%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	87.8%	—	14.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	88.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	88.5%	—	22.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	76.9%	—	—	—	—	40.7%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	72.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	10.6%	—	—	45.2%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	72.7%	—	50.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	65.3%	—	1.1%	—	—	51.3%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	70.7%	—	3.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	43.5%	—	—	62.8%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	74.7%	—	2.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	43.3%	0.6%	3.9%	—	—	52.7%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	8.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	11.9%	47.9%	32.3%	11.9%	—	63.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	38.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	43.4%	31.7%	1.9%	17.5%	—	58.7%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	22.1%	—	7.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	83.1%	46.2%	—	19.5%	—	40.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	21.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	75.2%	42.1%	74.5%	13.1%	—	40.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	71.7%	3.4%	63.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	54.2%	43.4%	52.5%	13.4%	—	32.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	23.3%	6.7%	14.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	17.8%	11.8%	2.5%	5.0%	—	38.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	22.2%	24.9%	5.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	14.9%	38.2%	1.2%	11.0%	—	27.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	23.1%	29.2%	6.4%	—	—	34.3%
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	31.3%	34.8%	1.5%	5.1%	—	41.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	29.9%	31.7%	13.5%	—	—	45.0%
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	25.1%	30.3%	31.2%	15.1%	0.1%	53.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	20.5%	52.1%	47.9%	—	—	42.6%
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	17.6%	33.1%	48.9%	7.7%	—	39.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	15.4%	31.5%	41.0%	0.0%	—	41.0%
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	22.4%	30.0%	11.6%	9.0%	—	40.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	32.5%	19.1%	3.7%	4.5%	—	42.8%
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	24.6%	21.7%	32.0%	5.5%	11.2%	33.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	14.3%	23.8%	46.1%	3.5%	—	34.9%
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	5.7%	7.0%	18.2%	12.7%	7.0%	40.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	2.7%	7.6%	26.5%	9.2%	—	36.3%
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	6.3%	4.7%	25.6%	10.2%	1.6%	45.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	5.1%	9.9%	15.3%	8.0%	—	45.5%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	8.3%	11.0%	9.6%	15.2%	7.1%	34.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	6.3%	7.3%	9.9%	—	17.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	81%	76.8°F	4.9°F	2026-10-05 12:00	Pending
ICON	66%	76.4°F	9.7°F	2026-10-05 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	57%	73.7°F	6.4°F	2026-10-05 00:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	73.0°F	6.5°F	2026-10-05 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	52%	72.7°F	5.1°F	2026-10-05 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	49%	72.4°F	5.6°F	2026-10-05 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261012-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 05 · 11:28 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 73°F · Mon Oct 12

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗