KPIT / Mon Oct 12 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST63%Oct 06 · 03:22 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

81%

66%

57%

52%

49%

Consensus

63%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 65.1¢Risks 65.10u

AIFSNO 34.9¢Risks 34.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +34.90u · AIFS −34.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-06T03:22:26+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-05T11:28:48+00:00	69.2%	52.3%	88.1%	57.5%	13.6%
2026-10-05T12:14:15+00:00	69.2%	52.3%	88.1%	57.5%	13.6%
2026-10-05T12:59:26+00:00	69.2%	52.3%	88.1%	57.5%	13.6%
2026-10-05T13:44:43+00:00	22.0%	52.3%	88.1%	57.5%	13.6%
2026-10-05T14:34:08+00:00	22.0%	52.3%	88.1%	57.5%	13.6%
2026-10-05T15:19:21+00:00	22.0%	51.6%	88.1%	57.5%	13.6%
2026-10-05T16:04:35+00:00	22.0%	51.6%	88.1%	57.5%	13.6%
2026-10-05T16:50:27+00:00	22.0%	51.6%	88.1%	57.5%	13.6%
2026-10-05T17:35:34+00:00	22.0%	51.6%	52.4%	57.5%	13.6%
2026-10-05T18:20:41+00:00	22.0%	51.6%	52.4%	57.5%	13.6%
2026-10-05T19:05:48+00:00	22.0%	51.6%	52.4%	57.5%	13.6%
2026-10-05T19:50:54+00:00	32.7%	51.6%	52.4%	57.5%	65.6%
2026-10-05T20:36:04+00:00	32.7%	51.6%	52.4%	57.5%	65.6%
2026-10-05T21:21:20+00:00	32.7%	51.6%	52.4%	57.5%	65.6%
2026-10-05T22:06:29+00:00	32.7%	51.6%	52.4%	57.5%	65.6%
2026-10-05T22:51:35+00:00	32.7%	51.6%	52.4%	57.5%	65.6%
2026-10-05T23:36:41+00:00	32.7%	51.6%	80.9%	57.5%	65.6%
2026-10-06T00:21:49+00:00	32.7%	51.6%	80.9%	57.5%	65.6%
2026-10-06T01:07:02+00:00	32.7%	51.6%	80.9%	57.5%	65.6%
2026-10-06T01:52:08+00:00	49.3%	51.6%	80.9%	57.5%	65.6%
2026-10-06T02:37:18+00:00	49.3%	51.6%	80.9%	57.5%	65.6%
2026-10-06T03:22:26+00:00	49.3%	51.6%	80.9%	57.5%	65.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	81%	76.8°F	4.9°F	2026-10-05 12:00	Pending
ICON	66%	76.4°F	9.7°F	2026-10-05 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	57%	73.7°F	6.4°F	2026-10-05 00:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	73.0°F	6.5°F	2026-10-05 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	52%	72.7°F	5.1°F	2026-10-05 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	49%	72.4°F	5.6°F	2026-10-05 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261012-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 05 · 11:28 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 73°F · Mon Oct 12

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗