KPIT / Mon Oct 12 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 12 · 01:00 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

21%

12%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 10.7¢Risks 10.70u

ICONNO 89.3¢Risks 89.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +89.30u · ICON −89.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	8.1%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	12.0%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	6.6%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	4.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	1.1%	—	—	9.6%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	10.8%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	28.7%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	56.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	80.4%	—	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	72.7%	—	5.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	73.3%	—	8.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	55.9%	—	—	—	—	20.5%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	60.2%	—	3.2%	—	—	23.3%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	27.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	40.7%	—	0.2%	—	—	27.5%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	46.2%	—	0.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	20.7%	—	—	37.2%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	0.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	19.8%	0.1%	0.7%	—	—	27.1%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	2.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	3.0%	22.4%	12.2%	3.0%	—	35.6%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	15.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	18.4%	11.3%	0.2%	4.8%	—	30.4%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	6.5%	—	1.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	57.6%	19.5%	—	5.2%	—	16.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	42.2%	—	5.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	45.2%	15.9%	44.4%	2.7%	—	14.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	40.3%	0.4%	31.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	23.2%	15.7%	21.9%	2.6%	—	9.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	5.6%	0.9%	2.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	3.6%	1.9%	0.2%	0.6%	—	12.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	4.8%	5.7%	0.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	2.5%	11.0%	0.1%	1.6%	—	6.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	4.6%	6.7%	0.7%	—	—	8.8%
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	7.2%	8.6%	0.1%	0.4%	—	11.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	6.3%	7.0%	1.8%	—	—	13.0%
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	4.4%	6.1%	6.4%	1.9%	0.0%	17.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	3.0%	15.6%	13.2%	—	—	10.6%
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	6.2%	13.1%	0.6%	—	8.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	1.6%	5.4%	8.7%	0.0%	—	8.7%
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	2.7%	4.5%	0.9%	0.6%	—	8.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	4.8%	1.9%	0.1%	0.2%	—	8.2%
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	2.6%	2.1%	4.3%	0.2%	0.7%	4.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	2.2%	8.2%	0.1%	—	4.6%
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.2%	1.2%	0.6%	0.2%	5.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.2%	2.1%	0.3%	—	4.0%
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.1%	1.8%	0.3%	0.0%	5.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.2%	0.5%	0.2%	—	5.1%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.2%	0.2%	0.4%	0.1%	2.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%	0.2%	—	0.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	21%	73.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-11 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	12%	71.8°F	4.0°F	2026-10-11 12:00	Pending
National Blend	5%	71.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-11 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	4%	71.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-11 14:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	3%	70.9°F	2.9°F	2026-10-11 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	2%	69.9°F	3.3°F	2026-10-11 00:00	Pending
ICON	<1%	66.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-11 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261012-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 05 · 07:41 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh runs hot-for-here: 77°F+ · Mon Oct 12

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗