KPIT / Mon Oct 12 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 12 · 01:00 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

21%

12%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 10.7¢Risks 10.70u

ICONNO 89.3¢Risks 89.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +89.30u · ICON −89.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-12T01:00:07+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-05T07:41:47+00:00	41.5%	23.2%	64.0%	33.0%	6.5%
2026-10-05T08:28:13+00:00	41.5%	23.2%	64.0%	33.0%	6.5%
2026-10-05T09:13:29+00:00	41.5%	23.2%	64.0%	33.0%	6.5%
2026-10-05T09:58:35+00:00	41.5%	23.2%	64.0%	33.0%	6.5%
2026-10-05T10:43:41+00:00	41.5%	23.2%	64.0%	33.0%	6.5%
2026-10-05T11:28:48+00:00	41.5%	23.4%	64.3%	33.0%	6.5%
2026-10-05T12:14:15+00:00	41.5%	23.4%	64.3%	33.0%	6.5%
2026-10-05T12:59:26+00:00	41.5%	23.4%	64.3%	33.0%	6.5%
2026-10-05T13:44:43+00:00	6.8%	23.4%	64.3%	33.0%	6.5%
2026-10-05T14:34:08+00:00	6.8%	23.4%	64.3%	33.0%	6.6%
2026-10-05T15:19:21+00:00	6.8%	22.8%	64.3%	33.0%	6.6%
2026-10-05T16:04:35+00:00	6.8%	22.8%	64.3%	33.0%	6.6%
2026-10-05T16:50:27+00:00	6.8%	22.8%	64.3%	33.0%	6.6%
2026-10-05T17:35:34+00:00	6.8%	22.8%	22.6%	33.0%	6.6%
2026-10-05T18:20:41+00:00	6.8%	22.8%	22.6%	33.0%	6.6%
2026-10-05T19:05:48+00:00	6.8%	22.8%	22.6%	33.0%	6.6%
2026-10-05T19:50:54+00:00	12.2%	22.8%	22.6%	33.0%	49.6%
2026-10-05T20:36:04+00:00	12.2%	22.8%	22.6%	33.0%	49.6%
2026-10-05T21:21:20+00:00	12.2%	22.8%	22.6%	33.0%	49.6%
2026-10-05T22:06:29+00:00	12.2%	22.8%	22.6%	33.0%	49.6%
2026-10-05T22:51:35+00:00	12.2%	22.8%	22.6%	33.0%	49.6%
2026-10-05T23:36:41+00:00	12.2%	22.8%	52.4%	33.0%	49.6%
2026-10-06T00:21:49+00:00	12.2%	22.8%	52.4%	33.0%	49.6%
2026-10-06T01:07:02+00:00	12.2%	22.8%	52.4%	33.0%	49.6%
2026-10-06T01:52:08+00:00	23.1%	22.8%	52.4%	33.0%	49.6%
2026-10-06T02:37:18+00:00	23.1%	22.8%	52.4%	33.0%	49.6%
2026-10-06T03:22:26+00:00	23.1%	22.8%	52.4%	33.0%	49.6%
2026-10-06T04:07:40+00:00	23.1%	22.8%	52.4%	33.0%	49.6%
2026-10-06T04:53:29+00:00	23.1%	22.8%	62.0%	33.0%	49.6%
2026-10-06T05:38:45+00:00	23.1%	22.8%	62.0%	33.0%	49.6%
2026-10-06T06:23:51+00:00	23.1%	22.8%	62.0%	33.0%	49.6%
2026-10-06T07:08:57+00:00	23.1%	22.8%	62.0%	33.0%	49.6%
2026-10-06T07:54:03+00:00	43.3%	22.8%	62.0%	33.0%	31.6%
2026-10-06T08:39:12+00:00	43.3%	22.8%	62.0%	33.0%	31.6%
2026-10-06T09:24:21+00:00	43.3%	22.8%	62.0%	33.0%	31.6%
2026-10-06T10:09:27+00:00	43.3%	22.8%	62.0%	33.0%	31.6%
2026-10-06T10:54:34+00:00	43.3%	20.5%	41.3%	33.0%	31.6%
2026-10-06T11:39:41+00:00	43.3%	20.5%	41.3%	33.0%	31.6%
2026-10-06T12:24:47+00:00	43.3%	20.5%	41.3%	33.0%	31.6%
2026-10-06T13:09:54+00:00	43.3%	20.5%	41.3%	33.0%	31.6%
2026-10-06T13:55:01+00:00	23.6%	20.5%	41.3%	33.0%	31.6%
2026-10-06T14:43:37+00:00	23.6%	20.5%	41.3%	33.0%	31.6%
2026-10-06T15:29:11+00:00	23.6%	21.1%	41.3%	33.0%	31.6%
2026-10-06T16:15:01+00:00	23.6%	21.1%	41.3%	33.0%	31.6%
2026-10-06T17:00:10+00:00	23.6%	21.1%	34.6%	33.0%	31.6%
2026-10-06T17:45:20+00:00	23.6%	21.1%	34.6%	33.0%	31.6%
2026-10-06T18:30:28+00:00	23.6%	21.1%	34.6%	33.0%	31.6%
2026-10-06T19:15:35+00:00	23.6%	21.1%	34.6%	33.0%	31.6%
2026-10-06T20:00:52+00:00	82.3%	21.1%	34.6%	7.1%	43.1%
2026-10-06T20:47:27+00:00	82.3%	21.1%	34.6%	7.1%	43.1%
2026-10-06T21:32:36+00:00	82.3%	21.1%	34.6%	7.1%	43.1%
2026-10-06T22:17:46+00:00	82.3%	21.1%	34.6%	7.1%	43.1%
2026-10-06T23:03:02+00:00	82.3%	21.1%	56.1%	7.1%	43.1%
2026-10-06T23:48:32+00:00	82.3%	21.1%	56.1%	7.1%	43.1%
2026-10-07T00:33:48+00:00	82.3%	21.1%	56.1%	7.1%	43.1%
2026-10-07T01:19:05+00:00	82.3%	21.1%	56.1%	7.1%	43.1%
2026-10-07T02:04:24+00:00	72.1%	21.1%	56.1%	7.1%	43.1%
2026-10-07T02:49:35+00:00	72.1%	21.1%	56.1%	7.1%	43.1%
2026-10-07T03:34:42+00:00	72.1%	21.1%	56.1%	7.1%	43.1%
2026-10-07T04:19:56+00:00	72.1%	21.1%	56.1%	7.1%	43.1%
2026-10-07T05:06:53+00:00	72.1%	21.1%	50.0%	7.1%	43.1%
2026-10-07T05:52:07+00:00	72.1%	21.1%	50.0%	7.1%	43.1%
2026-10-07T06:37:40+00:00	72.1%	21.1%	50.0%	7.1%	43.1%
2026-10-07T07:23:08+00:00	74.9%	21.1%	50.0%	22.4%	32.7%
2026-10-07T08:09:22+00:00	74.9%	21.1%	50.0%	22.4%	32.7%
2026-10-07T08:54:44+00:00	74.9%	21.1%	50.0%	22.4%	32.7%
2026-10-07T09:39:52+00:00	74.9%	21.1%	50.0%	22.4%	32.7%
2026-10-07T10:24:58+00:00	74.9%	21.1%	50.0%	22.4%	32.7%
2026-10-07T11:10:28+00:00	74.9%	3.2%	42.2%	22.4%	32.7%
2026-10-07T11:55:58+00:00	74.9%	3.2%	42.2%	22.4%	32.7%
2026-10-07T12:41:05+00:00	74.9%	3.2%	42.2%	22.4%	32.7%
2026-10-07T13:26:11+00:00	70.9%	3.2%	42.2%	22.4%	32.7%
2026-10-07T14:17:31+00:00	70.9%	3.4%	42.2%	22.3%	32.7%
2026-10-07T15:02:38+00:00	70.9%	3.0%	42.2%	22.3%	32.7%
2026-10-07T15:47:45+00:00	70.9%	3.0%	42.2%	22.3%	32.7%
2026-10-07T16:32:59+00:00	70.9%	3.0%	42.2%	22.3%	32.7%
2026-10-07T17:18:45+00:00	70.9%	3.0%	32.8%	22.3%	32.7%
2026-10-07T18:03:53+00:00	70.9%	3.0%	32.8%	22.3%	32.7%
2026-10-07T18:48:59+00:00	70.9%	3.0%	32.8%	22.3%	32.7%
2026-10-07T19:34:08+00:00	54.1%	3.0%	32.8%	20.8%	34.0%
2026-10-07T20:19:19+00:00	54.1%	3.0%	32.8%	20.8%	34.0%
2026-10-07T21:04:27+00:00	54.1%	3.0%	32.8%	20.8%	34.0%
2026-10-07T21:50:00+00:00	54.1%	3.0%	32.8%	20.8%	34.0%
2026-10-07T22:35:06+00:00	54.1%	3.0%	32.8%	20.8%	34.0%
2026-10-07T23:20:13+00:00	54.1%	3.0%	22.9%	20.8%	34.6%
2026-10-08T00:05:28+00:00	54.1%	3.0%	22.9%	20.8%	34.6%
2026-10-08T00:50:46+00:00	54.1%	3.0%	22.9%	20.8%	34.6%
2026-10-08T01:35:59+00:00	25.7%	3.0%	22.9%	20.8%	34.6%
2026-10-08T02:21:08+00:00	25.7%	3.0%	22.9%	20.8%	34.6%
2026-10-08T03:06:22+00:00	25.7%	3.0%	22.9%	20.8%	34.6%
2026-10-08T03:52:31+00:00	25.7%	3.0%	22.9%	20.8%	34.6%
2026-10-08T04:37:38+00:00	25.7%	3.0%	22.9%	20.8%	34.6%
2026-10-08T05:22:44+00:00	25.7%	3.0%	7.2%	20.8%	34.6%
2026-10-08T06:07:55+00:00	25.7%	3.0%	7.2%	20.8%	34.6%
2026-10-08T06:53:02+00:00	25.7%	3.0%	7.2%	20.8%	34.6%
2026-10-08T07:38:12+00:00	19.2%	3.0%	7.2%	21.2%	4.8%
2026-10-08T08:24:43+00:00	19.2%	3.0%	7.2%	21.2%	4.8%
2026-10-08T09:09:49+00:00	19.2%	3.0%	7.2%	21.2%	4.8%
2026-10-08T09:54:56+00:00	19.2%	3.0%	7.2%	21.2%	4.8%
2026-10-08T10:40:02+00:00	19.2%	3.0%	7.2%	21.2%	4.8%
2026-10-08T11:25:16+00:00	19.2%	3.7%	4.7%	21.2%	4.8%
2026-10-08T12:10:40+00:00	19.2%	3.7%	4.7%	21.2%	4.8%
2026-10-08T12:55:49+00:00	19.2%	3.7%	4.7%	21.2%	4.8%
2026-10-08T13:40:56+00:00	24.3%	3.7%	4.7%	21.2%	4.8%
2026-10-08T14:30:25+00:00	24.3%	3.9%	4.6%	21.2%	5.1%
2026-10-08T15:15:50+00:00	24.3%	3.7%	4.6%	21.2%	5.1%
2026-10-08T16:01:32+00:00	24.3%	3.7%	4.6%	21.2%	5.1%
2026-10-08T16:46:38+00:00	24.3%	3.7%	4.6%	21.2%	5.1%
2026-10-08T17:31:44+00:00	24.3%	3.7%	4.6%	21.2%	5.1%
2026-10-08T18:16:49+00:00	24.3%	3.7%	4.6%	21.2%	5.1%
2026-10-08T19:01:54+00:00	24.3%	3.7%	4.6%	21.2%	5.1%
2026-10-08T19:46:59+00:00	17.4%	3.7%	4.6%	14.0%	21.9%
2026-10-08T20:32:12+00:00	17.4%	3.7%	4.6%	14.0%	21.9%
2026-10-08T21:17:20+00:00	17.4%	3.7%	4.6%	14.0%	21.9%
2026-10-08T22:02:30+00:00	17.4%	3.7%	4.6%	14.0%	21.9%
2026-10-08T22:47:36+00:00	17.4%	3.7%	4.6%	14.0%	21.9%
2026-10-08T23:32:43+00:00	17.4%	3.7%	8.8%	14.0%	21.9%
2026-10-09T00:17:55+00:00	17.4%	3.7%	8.8%	14.0%	21.9%
2026-10-09T01:03:07+00:00	17.4%	3.7%	8.8%	14.0%	21.9%
2026-10-09T01:48:12+00:00	26.4%	3.7%	8.8%	14.0%	21.9%
2026-10-09T02:33:33+00:00	26.4%	3.7%	8.8%	14.0%	21.9%
2026-10-09T03:18:49+00:00	26.4%	3.7%	8.8%	14.0%	21.9%
2026-10-09T04:05:04+00:00	26.4%	3.7%	8.8%	14.0%	21.9%
2026-10-09T04:50:12+00:00	26.4%	3.7%	8.8%	14.0%	21.9%
2026-10-09T05:35:18+00:00	26.4%	3.7%	9.7%	14.0%	21.9%
2026-10-09T06:20:26+00:00	26.4%	3.7%	9.7%	14.0%	21.9%
2026-10-09T07:05:32+00:00	26.4%	3.7%	9.7%	14.0%	21.9%
2026-10-09T07:50:45+00:00	32.2%	3.7%	9.7%	10.2%	10.3%
2026-10-09T08:37:12+00:00	32.2%	3.7%	9.7%	10.2%	10.3%
2026-10-09T09:22:17+00:00	32.2%	3.7%	9.7%	10.2%	10.3%
2026-10-09T10:07:23+00:00	32.2%	3.7%	9.7%	10.2%	10.3%
2026-10-09T10:52:29+00:00	32.2%	3.7%	9.7%	10.2%	10.3%
2026-10-09T11:37:36+00:00	32.2%	3.7%	9.7%	10.2%	10.3%
2026-10-09T12:23:10+00:00	32.2%	5.3%	9.7%	10.2%	10.3%
2026-10-09T13:08:25+00:00	32.2%	5.3%	9.7%	10.2%	10.3%
2026-10-09T13:53:30+00:00	32.1%	5.3%	9.7%	10.1%	10.7%
2026-10-09T14:42:07+00:00	32.1%	5.3%	9.7%	10.1%	10.7%
2026-10-09T15:27:17+00:00	32.1%	5.4%	9.7%	10.1%	10.7%
2026-10-09T16:13:13+00:00	32.1%	5.4%	9.7%	10.1%	10.7%
2026-10-09T16:58:25+00:00	32.1%	5.4%	10.0%	10.1%	10.7%
2026-10-09T17:43:32+00:00	32.1%	5.4%	10.0%	10.1%	10.7%
2026-10-09T18:28:38+00:00	32.1%	5.4%	10.0%	10.1%	10.7%
2026-10-09T19:13:43+00:00	32.1%	5.4%	10.0%	10.1%	10.7%
2026-10-09T19:58:50+00:00	28.1%	5.4%	10.0%	30.3%	9.0%
2026-10-09T20:44:01+00:00	28.1%	5.4%	10.0%	30.3%	9.0%
2026-10-09T21:29:10+00:00	28.1%	5.4%	10.0%	30.3%	9.0%
2026-10-09T22:14:36+00:00	28.1%	5.4%	10.0%	30.3%	9.0%
2026-10-09T22:59:41+00:00	28.1%	5.4%	10.0%	30.3%	9.0%
2026-10-09T23:44:48+00:00	28.1%	5.4%	10.0%	30.3%	9.0%
2026-10-10T00:29:59+00:00	28.1%	5.4%	10.0%	30.3%	9.0%
2026-10-10T01:15:14+00:00	28.1%	5.4%	10.0%	30.3%	9.0%
2026-10-10T02:00:41+00:00	24.3%	5.4%	10.0%	30.3%	9.0%
2026-10-10T02:45:58+00:00	24.3%	5.4%	10.0%	30.3%	9.0%
2026-10-10T03:31:21+00:00	24.3%	5.4%	10.0%	30.3%	9.0%
2026-10-10T04:16:36+00:00	24.3%	5.4%	10.0%	30.3%	9.0%
2026-10-10T05:03:03+00:00	24.3%	5.4%	7.7%	30.3%	9.0%
2026-10-10T05:48:13+00:00	24.3%	5.4%	7.7%	30.3%	9.0%
2026-10-10T06:33:20+00:00	24.3%	5.4%	7.7%	30.3%	9.0%
2026-10-10T07:18:25+00:00	24.3%	5.4%	7.7%	30.3%	9.0%
2026-10-10T08:03:30+00:00	21.1%	5.4%	7.7%	30.3%	4.9%
2026-10-10T08:48:39+00:00	21.1%	5.4%	7.7%	30.3%	4.9%
2026-10-10T09:33:44+00:00	21.1%	5.4%	7.7%	30.3%	4.9%
2026-10-10T10:18:54+00:00	21.1%	5.4%	7.7%	30.3%	4.9%
2026-10-10T11:04:03+00:00	21.1%	5.0%	7.7%	30.3%	4.9%
2026-10-10T11:49:13+00:00	21.1%	5.0%	7.7%	30.3%	4.9%
2026-10-10T12:34:18+00:00	21.1%	5.0%	7.7%	30.3%	4.9%
2026-10-10T13:19:24+00:00	21.1%	5.0%	7.7%	30.3%	4.9%
2026-10-10T14:04:42+00:00	19.7%	5.0%	7.3%	30.3%	4.9%
2026-10-10T14:53:45+00:00	19.7%	5.0%	7.3%	30.3%	4.9%
2026-10-10T15:39:25+00:00	19.7%	4.9%	7.3%	30.3%	4.9%
2026-10-10T16:24:36+00:00	19.7%	4.9%	7.3%	30.3%	4.9%
2026-10-10T17:09:43+00:00	19.7%	4.9%	5.3%	30.3%	4.9%
2026-10-10T17:54:52+00:00	19.7%	4.9%	5.3%	30.3%	4.9%
2026-10-10T18:40:19+00:00	19.7%	4.9%	5.3%	30.3%	4.9%
2026-10-10T19:25:31+00:00	26.3%	4.9%	5.3%	30.3%	4.3%
2026-10-10T20:10:40+00:00	26.3%	4.9%	5.3%	30.3%	4.3%
2026-10-10T20:55:54+00:00	26.3%	4.9%	5.3%	30.3%	4.3%
2026-10-10T21:41:27+00:00	26.3%	4.9%	5.3%	30.3%	4.3%
2026-10-10T22:26:41+00:00	26.3%	4.9%	5.3%	24.2%	4.3%
2026-10-10T23:13:29+00:00	26.3%	4.9%	7.3%	24.7%	4.3%
2026-10-10T23:58:37+00:00	26.3%	4.9%	7.3%	24.7%	4.3%
2026-10-11T00:43:43+00:00	26.3%	4.9%	7.3%	24.7%	4.3%
2026-10-11T01:28:58+00:00	35.7%	4.9%	7.3%	24.7%	4.3%
2026-10-11T02:14:10+00:00	35.7%	4.9%	7.3%	24.7%	4.3%
2026-10-11T02:59:17+00:00	35.7%	4.9%	7.3%	24.7%	4.3%
2026-10-11T03:44:33+00:00	35.7%	4.9%	7.3%	24.7%	4.3%
2026-10-11T04:30:38+00:00	35.7%	4.9%	7.3%	24.7%	4.3%
2026-10-11T05:16:01+00:00	35.7%	4.9%	6.5%	24.7%	4.3%
2026-10-11T06:01:14+00:00	35.7%	4.9%	6.5%	24.7%	4.3%
2026-10-11T06:46:23+00:00	35.7%	4.9%	6.5%	24.7%	4.3%
2026-10-11T07:31:36+00:00	28.2%	4.9%	6.5%	17.4%	4.3%
2026-10-11T08:18:00+00:00	28.2%	4.9%	6.5%	17.4%	4.3%
2026-10-11T09:03:06+00:00	28.2%	4.9%	6.5%	17.4%	4.3%
2026-10-11T09:48:14+00:00	28.2%	4.9%	6.5%	17.4%	4.3%
2026-10-11T10:33:31+00:00	28.2%	4.9%	6.5%	17.4%	4.3%
2026-10-11T11:19:41+00:00	28.2%	2.6%	4.7%	17.4%	4.3%
2026-10-11T12:05:20+00:00	28.2%	2.6%	4.7%	17.4%	4.3%
2026-10-11T12:50:26+00:00	28.2%	2.6%	4.7%	17.4%	4.3%
2026-10-11T13:35:37+00:00	19.6%	2.6%	4.7%	17.4%	4.3%
2026-10-11T14:26:10+00:00	19.6%	2.8%	4.7%	17.4%	4.3%
2026-10-11T15:11:24+00:00	19.6%	2.3%	4.7%	17.4%	4.3%
2026-10-11T15:57:16+00:00	19.6%	2.3%	4.7%	17.4%	4.3%
2026-10-11T16:42:24+00:00	19.6%	2.3%	4.7%	17.4%	4.3%
2026-10-11T17:27:58+00:00	19.6%	2.3%	5.4%	17.4%	4.3%
2026-10-11T18:13:06+00:00	19.6%	2.3%	5.4%	17.4%	4.3%
2026-10-11T18:58:16+00:00	19.6%	2.3%	5.4%	17.4%	4.3%
2026-10-11T19:43:28+00:00	11.9%	2.3%	5.4%	21.1%	0.3%
2026-10-11T20:28:37+00:00	11.9%	2.3%	5.4%	21.1%	0.3%
2026-10-11T21:13:48+00:00	11.9%	2.3%	5.4%	21.1%	0.3%
2026-10-11T21:58:57+00:00	11.9%	2.3%	5.4%	21.1%	0.3%
2026-10-11T22:44:08+00:00	11.9%	2.3%	5.4%	21.1%	0.3%
2026-10-11T23:29:26+00:00	11.9%	2.3%	2.8%	21.1%	0.3%
2026-10-12T00:14:42+00:00	11.9%	2.3%	2.8%	21.1%	0.3%
2026-10-12T01:00:07+00:00	11.9%	2.3%	2.8%	21.1%	0.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	21%	73.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-11 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	12%	71.8°F	4.0°F	2026-10-11 12:00	Pending
National Blend	5%	71.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-11 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	4%	71.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-11 14:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	3%	70.9°F	2.9°F	2026-10-11 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	2%	69.9°F	3.3°F	2026-10-11 00:00	Pending
ICON	<1%	66.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-11 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261012-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 05 · 07:41 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh runs hot-for-here: 77°F+ · Mon Oct 12

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗