KPIT / Tue Oct 13 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST97%Oct 13 · 07:17 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

98%

88%

60%

38%

Consensus

97%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 68.8¢Risks 68.80u

ICONNO 31.2¢Risks 31.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +31.20u · ICON −31.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.5%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	8.5%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	1.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	9.8%	—	—	7.7%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	7.9%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	3.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	5.6%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	15.2%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	10.3%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	13.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	30.5%	—	—	—	—	15.7%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	4.7%	—	—	23.8%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	58.6%	—	0.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	0.3%	—	—	17.3%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	14.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	0.8%	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	52.5%	—	4.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	44.4%	—	0.1%	—	—	23.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	20.7%	—	21.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	3.2%	—	—	18.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	27.5%	—	38.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	53.4%	1.3%	13.9%	—	—	33.6%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	55.5%	—	0.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	76.5%	5.2%	—	2.7%	—	17.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	40.8%	—	4.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	11.7%	3.1%	1.8%	14.4%	—	3.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	34.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	38.7%	5.0%	7.0%	1.5%	—	6.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	49.2%	—	3.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	67.0%	1.3%	4.7%	2.7%	—	22.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	62.8%	0.2%	17.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	52.5%	56.6%	55.0%	34.5%	—	21.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	78.0%	42.4%	44.0%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	78.6%	21.4%	61.3%	54.4%	—	35.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	80.4%	57.1%	65.8%	—	—	31.8%
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	81.0%	69.5%	43.6%	46.3%	—	40.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	82.3%	74.7%	63.9%	—	—	60.3%
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	82.9%	72.9%	66.1%	54.9%	—	72.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	81.0%	63.7%	64.7%	—	—	71.8%
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	76.5%	57.2%	67.0%	67.0%	—	70.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	86.2%	64.5%	67.4%	—	—	73.0%
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	86.9%	56.5%	70.8%	57.6%	0.0%	76.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	85.9%	52.2%	69.5%	0.0%	—	76.0%
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	86.6%	38.5%	75.8%	60.4%	54.6%	79.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	89.2%	42.8%	74.7%	57.2%	—	80.9%
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	92.0%	48.8%	79.2%	58.7%	0.0%	84.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	91.3%	51.3%	76.2%	52.6%	—	80.0%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	94.7%	51.3%	83.5%	56.7%	64.4%	84.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	96.0%	58.3%	77.9%	56.9%	—	85.3%
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	96.8%	76.6%	74.4%	64.2%	73.2%	89.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	96.6%	78.7%	79.8%	59.0%	—	87.2%
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	96.9%	73.7%	84.8%	65.4%	85.8%	92.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	45.1%	96.3%	91.4%	84.0%	—	97.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	>99%	85.2°F	2.9°F	2026-10-12 18:00	Pending
National Blend	99%	79.0°F	1.1°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	98%	84.9°F	4.0°F	2026-10-12 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	94%	80.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-13 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	88%	80.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	60%	77.2°F	2.7°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
ICON	38%	75.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261013-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 06 · 20:00 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh runs hot-for-here: 77°F+ · Tue Oct 13

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗