KPIT / Tue Oct 13 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST97%Oct 13 · 07:17 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

98%

88%

60%

38%

Consensus

97%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 68.8¢Risks 68.80u

ICONNO 31.2¢Risks 31.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +31.20u · ICON −31.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-13T07:17:15+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-06T20:00:53+00:00	92.4%	26.3%	12.4%	60.5%	30.4%
2026-10-06T20:47:27+00:00	92.4%	26.3%	12.4%	60.5%	30.4%
2026-10-06T21:32:36+00:00	92.4%	26.3%	12.4%	60.5%	30.4%
2026-10-06T22:17:46+00:00	92.4%	26.3%	12.4%	60.5%	30.4%
2026-10-06T23:03:02+00:00	92.4%	26.3%	18.1%	60.5%	30.4%
2026-10-06T23:48:32+00:00	92.4%	26.3%	18.1%	60.5%	30.4%
2026-10-07T00:33:48+00:00	92.4%	26.3%	18.1%	60.5%	30.4%
2026-10-07T01:19:05+00:00	92.4%	26.3%	18.1%	60.5%	30.4%
2026-10-07T02:04:24+00:00	69.8%	26.3%	18.1%	60.5%	30.4%
2026-10-07T02:49:35+00:00	69.8%	26.3%	18.1%	60.5%	30.4%
2026-10-07T03:34:42+00:00	69.8%	26.3%	18.1%	60.5%	30.4%
2026-10-07T04:19:56+00:00	69.8%	26.3%	18.1%	60.5%	30.4%
2026-10-07T05:06:54+00:00	69.8%	26.3%	8.1%	60.5%	30.4%
2026-10-07T05:52:07+00:00	69.8%	26.3%	8.1%	60.5%	30.4%
2026-10-07T06:37:40+00:00	69.8%	26.3%	8.1%	60.5%	30.4%
2026-10-07T07:23:08+00:00	31.8%	26.3%	8.1%	3.3%	15.8%
2026-10-07T08:09:22+00:00	31.8%	26.3%	8.1%	3.3%	15.8%
2026-10-07T08:54:44+00:00	31.8%	26.3%	8.1%	3.3%	15.8%
2026-10-07T09:39:52+00:00	31.8%	26.3%	8.1%	3.3%	15.8%
2026-10-07T10:24:58+00:00	31.8%	26.3%	8.1%	3.3%	15.8%
2026-10-07T11:10:28+00:00	31.8%	5.6%	5.6%	3.3%	15.8%
2026-10-07T11:55:58+00:00	31.8%	5.6%	5.6%	3.3%	15.8%
2026-10-07T12:41:05+00:00	31.8%	5.6%	5.6%	3.3%	15.8%
2026-10-07T13:26:11+00:00	33.2%	5.6%	5.6%	3.3%	15.8%
2026-10-07T14:17:31+00:00	33.2%	5.7%	5.6%	3.3%	16.2%
2026-10-07T15:02:38+00:00	33.2%	5.5%	5.6%	3.3%	16.2%
2026-10-07T15:47:45+00:00	33.2%	5.5%	5.6%	3.3%	16.2%
2026-10-07T16:32:59+00:00	33.2%	5.5%	5.6%	3.3%	16.2%
2026-10-07T17:18:45+00:00	33.2%	5.5%	4.6%	3.3%	16.2%
2026-10-07T18:03:53+00:00	33.2%	5.5%	4.6%	3.3%	16.2%
2026-10-07T18:48:59+00:00	33.2%	5.5%	4.6%	3.3%	16.2%
2026-10-07T19:34:08+00:00	68.9%	5.5%	4.6%	23.3%	22.6%
2026-10-07T20:19:19+00:00	68.9%	5.5%	4.6%	23.3%	22.6%
2026-10-07T21:04:27+00:00	68.9%	5.5%	4.6%	23.3%	22.6%
2026-10-07T21:50:00+00:00	68.9%	5.5%	4.6%	23.3%	22.6%
2026-10-07T22:35:06+00:00	68.9%	5.5%	4.6%	23.3%	22.6%
2026-10-07T23:20:13+00:00	68.9%	5.4%	10.4%	23.3%	22.6%
2026-10-08T00:05:28+00:00	68.9%	5.4%	10.4%	23.3%	22.6%
2026-10-08T00:50:46+00:00	68.9%	5.4%	10.4%	23.3%	22.6%
2026-10-08T01:36:00+00:00	77.6%	5.4%	10.4%	23.3%	22.6%
2026-10-08T02:21:08+00:00	77.6%	5.4%	10.4%	23.3%	22.6%
2026-10-08T03:06:22+00:00	77.6%	5.4%	10.4%	23.3%	22.6%
2026-10-08T03:52:31+00:00	77.6%	5.4%	10.4%	23.3%	22.6%
2026-10-08T04:37:38+00:00	77.6%	5.4%	10.4%	23.3%	22.6%
2026-10-08T05:22:44+00:00	77.6%	5.4%	54.4%	23.3%	22.6%
2026-10-08T06:07:55+00:00	77.6%	5.4%	54.4%	23.3%	22.6%
2026-10-08T06:53:02+00:00	77.6%	5.4%	54.4%	23.3%	22.6%
2026-10-08T07:38:12+00:00	89.0%	5.4%	54.4%	66.1%	7.0%
2026-10-08T08:24:43+00:00	89.0%	5.4%	54.4%	66.1%	7.0%
2026-10-08T09:09:49+00:00	89.0%	5.4%	54.4%	66.1%	7.0%
2026-10-08T09:54:56+00:00	89.0%	5.4%	54.4%	66.1%	7.0%
2026-10-08T10:40:02+00:00	89.0%	5.4%	54.4%	66.1%	7.0%
2026-10-08T11:25:16+00:00	89.0%	15.5%	90.1%	66.1%	7.0%
2026-10-08T12:10:40+00:00	89.0%	15.5%	90.1%	66.1%	7.0%
2026-10-08T12:55:49+00:00	89.0%	15.5%	90.1%	66.1%	7.0%
2026-10-08T13:40:56+00:00	86.0%	15.5%	90.1%	66.1%	7.0%
2026-10-08T14:30:25+00:00	86.1%	15.9%	90.2%	66.1%	7.0%
2026-10-08T15:15:50+00:00	86.1%	16.1%	90.2%	66.1%	7.0%
2026-10-08T16:01:32+00:00	86.1%	16.1%	90.2%	66.1%	7.0%
2026-10-08T16:46:38+00:00	86.1%	16.1%	90.2%	66.3%	7.0%
2026-10-08T17:31:44+00:00	86.1%	16.1%	90.2%	66.3%	7.0%
2026-10-08T18:16:49+00:00	86.1%	16.1%	90.2%	66.3%	7.0%
2026-10-08T19:01:54+00:00	86.1%	16.1%	90.2%	66.3%	7.0%
2026-10-08T19:46:59+00:00	79.9%	16.1%	90.2%	34.3%	71.4%
2026-10-08T20:32:12+00:00	79.9%	16.1%	90.2%	34.3%	71.4%
2026-10-08T21:17:20+00:00	79.9%	16.1%	90.2%	34.3%	71.4%
2026-10-08T22:02:30+00:00	79.9%	16.1%	90.2%	34.3%	71.4%
2026-10-08T22:47:36+00:00	79.9%	16.1%	90.2%	34.3%	71.4%
2026-10-08T23:32:43+00:00	79.9%	16.1%	89.7%	34.5%	71.4%
2026-10-09T00:17:55+00:00	79.9%	16.1%	89.7%	34.5%	71.4%
2026-10-09T01:03:07+00:00	79.9%	16.1%	89.7%	34.5%	71.4%
2026-10-09T01:48:12+00:00	93.2%	16.1%	89.7%	34.5%	71.4%
2026-10-09T02:33:33+00:00	93.2%	16.1%	89.7%	34.5%	71.4%
2026-10-09T03:18:49+00:00	93.2%	16.1%	89.7%	34.5%	71.4%
2026-10-09T04:05:04+00:00	93.2%	16.1%	89.7%	34.5%	71.4%
2026-10-09T04:50:12+00:00	93.2%	16.1%	89.7%	34.5%	71.4%
2026-10-09T05:35:18+00:00	93.2%	16.1%	92.1%	34.5%	71.4%
2026-10-09T06:20:26+00:00	93.2%	16.1%	92.1%	34.5%	71.4%
2026-10-09T07:05:32+00:00	93.2%	16.1%	92.1%	34.5%	71.4%
2026-10-09T07:50:45+00:00	94.4%	16.1%	92.1%	69.8%	33.8%
2026-10-09T08:37:12+00:00	94.4%	16.1%	92.1%	69.8%	33.8%
2026-10-09T09:22:17+00:00	94.4%	16.1%	92.1%	69.8%	33.8%
2026-10-09T10:07:23+00:00	94.4%	16.1%	92.1%	69.8%	33.8%
2026-10-09T10:52:29+00:00	94.4%	16.1%	92.1%	69.8%	33.8%
2026-10-09T11:37:36+00:00	94.4%	16.1%	92.1%	69.8%	33.8%
2026-10-09T12:23:10+00:00	94.4%	28.0%	92.1%	69.8%	33.8%
2026-10-09T13:08:25+00:00	94.4%	28.0%	92.1%	69.8%	33.8%
2026-10-09T13:53:30+00:00	94.9%	28.0%	92.1%	69.8%	33.8%
2026-10-09T14:42:07+00:00	94.9%	28.0%	92.1%	69.8%	33.8%
2026-10-09T15:27:18+00:00	94.9%	28.3%	92.1%	69.8%	33.8%
2026-10-09T16:13:13+00:00	94.9%	28.3%	92.1%	69.8%	33.8%
2026-10-09T16:58:25+00:00	94.9%	28.3%	95.9%	69.8%	33.8%
2026-10-09T17:43:32+00:00	94.9%	28.3%	95.9%	69.8%	33.8%
2026-10-09T18:28:38+00:00	94.9%	28.3%	95.9%	69.8%	33.8%
2026-10-09T19:13:43+00:00	94.9%	28.3%	95.9%	69.8%	33.8%
2026-10-09T19:58:50+00:00	94.9%	28.3%	95.9%	77.6%	78.7%
2026-10-09T20:44:01+00:00	94.9%	28.3%	95.9%	77.6%	78.7%
2026-10-09T21:29:10+00:00	94.9%	28.3%	95.9%	77.6%	78.7%
2026-10-09T22:14:36+00:00	94.9%	28.3%	95.9%	77.6%	78.7%
2026-10-09T22:59:41+00:00	94.9%	28.3%	95.9%	77.6%	78.7%
2026-10-09T23:44:48+00:00	94.9%	28.3%	95.9%	77.6%	78.7%
2026-10-10T00:29:59+00:00	94.9%	28.3%	95.9%	77.6%	78.7%
2026-10-10T01:15:14+00:00	94.9%	28.3%	95.9%	77.6%	78.7%
2026-10-10T02:00:41+00:00	94.9%	28.3%	95.9%	77.6%	78.7%
2026-10-10T02:45:58+00:00	94.9%	28.3%	95.9%	77.6%	78.7%
2026-10-10T03:31:21+00:00	94.9%	28.3%	95.9%	77.6%	78.7%
2026-10-10T04:16:36+00:00	94.9%	28.3%	95.9%	77.6%	78.7%
2026-10-10T05:03:03+00:00	94.9%	28.3%	98.0%	77.6%	78.7%
2026-10-10T05:48:13+00:00	94.9%	28.3%	98.0%	77.6%	78.7%
2026-10-10T06:33:20+00:00	94.9%	28.3%	98.0%	77.6%	78.7%
2026-10-10T07:18:25+00:00	94.9%	28.3%	98.0%	77.6%	78.7%
2026-10-10T08:03:30+00:00	95.9%	28.3%	98.0%	77.6%	79.1%
2026-10-10T08:48:39+00:00	95.9%	28.3%	98.0%	77.6%	79.1%
2026-10-10T09:33:44+00:00	95.9%	28.3%	98.0%	77.6%	79.1%
2026-10-10T10:18:54+00:00	95.9%	28.3%	98.0%	77.6%	79.1%
2026-10-10T11:04:03+00:00	95.9%	54.4%	98.0%	77.6%	79.1%
2026-10-10T11:49:13+00:00	95.9%	54.4%	98.0%	77.6%	79.1%
2026-10-10T12:34:19+00:00	95.9%	54.4%	98.0%	77.6%	79.1%
2026-10-10T13:19:24+00:00	95.9%	54.4%	98.0%	77.6%	79.1%
2026-10-10T14:04:42+00:00	95.0%	54.4%	98.0%	77.6%	79.0%
2026-10-10T14:53:45+00:00	95.0%	54.5%	98.0%	77.6%	79.0%
2026-10-10T15:39:25+00:00	95.0%	54.5%	98.0%	77.6%	79.0%
2026-10-10T16:24:36+00:00	95.0%	54.5%	98.0%	77.6%	79.0%
2026-10-10T17:09:43+00:00	95.0%	54.5%	96.9%	77.6%	79.0%
2026-10-10T17:54:52+00:00	95.0%	54.5%	96.9%	77.6%	79.0%
2026-10-10T18:40:19+00:00	95.0%	54.5%	96.9%	77.6%	79.0%
2026-10-10T19:25:31+00:00	93.4%	54.5%	96.9%	77.6%	63.8%
2026-10-10T20:10:40+00:00	93.4%	54.5%	96.9%	77.6%	63.8%
2026-10-10T20:55:54+00:00	93.4%	54.5%	96.9%	77.6%	63.8%
2026-10-10T21:41:27+00:00	93.4%	54.5%	96.9%	77.6%	63.8%
2026-10-10T22:26:41+00:00	93.4%	54.5%	96.9%	80.9%	63.8%
2026-10-10T23:13:29+00:00	93.4%	54.5%	98.4%	80.9%	63.8%
2026-10-10T23:58:37+00:00	93.4%	54.5%	98.4%	80.9%	63.8%
2026-10-11T00:43:43+00:00	93.4%	54.5%	98.4%	80.9%	63.8%
2026-10-11T01:28:58+00:00	96.3%	54.5%	98.4%	80.9%	63.8%
2026-10-11T02:14:10+00:00	96.3%	54.5%	98.4%	80.9%	63.8%
2026-10-11T02:59:17+00:00	96.3%	54.5%	98.4%	80.9%	63.8%
2026-10-12T15:26:37+00:00	97.5%	61.5%	99.7%	89.1%	35.6%
2026-10-12T16:12:54+00:00	97.5%	60.2%	99.7%	89.1%	35.6%
2026-10-12T16:58:01+00:00	97.5%	60.2%	99.5%	89.1%	35.6%
2026-10-12T17:43:11+00:00	97.5%	60.2%	99.5%	89.1%	35.6%
2026-10-12T18:28:18+00:00	97.5%	60.2%	99.5%	89.1%	35.6%
2026-10-12T19:13:24+00:00	97.5%	60.2%	99.5%	89.1%	35.6%
2026-10-12T19:58:30+00:00	98.3%	60.2%	99.5%	87.6%	37.7%
2026-10-12T20:43:40+00:00	98.3%	60.2%	99.5%	87.6%	37.7%
2026-10-12T21:28:48+00:00	98.3%	60.2%	99.5%	87.6%	37.7%
2026-10-12T22:13:55+00:00	98.3%	60.2%	99.5%	87.6%	37.7%
2026-10-12T22:59:06+00:00	98.3%	60.2%	99.6%	87.6%	37.7%
2026-10-12T23:44:16+00:00	98.3%	60.2%	99.6%	87.6%	37.7%
2026-10-13T00:29:22+00:00	98.3%	60.2%	99.6%	87.6%	37.7%
2026-10-13T01:14:38+00:00	98.3%	60.2%	99.6%	87.6%	37.7%
2026-10-13T01:59:45+00:00	98.3%	60.2%	99.6%	87.6%	37.7%
2026-10-13T02:44:54+00:00	98.3%	60.2%	99.6%	87.6%	37.7%
2026-10-13T03:30:00+00:00	98.3%	60.2%	99.6%	87.6%	37.7%
2026-10-13T04:15:16+00:00	98.3%	60.2%	99.6%	87.6%	37.7%
2026-10-13T05:01:43+00:00	98.3%	60.2%	99.9%	87.6%	37.7%
2026-10-13T05:46:49+00:00	98.3%	60.2%	99.9%	87.6%	37.7%
2026-10-13T06:32:01+00:00	98.3%	60.2%	99.9%	87.6%	37.7%
2026-10-13T07:17:15+00:00	98.3%	60.2%	99.9%	87.6%	37.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	>99%	85.2°F	2.9°F	2026-10-12 18:00	Pending
National Blend	99%	79.0°F	1.1°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	98%	84.9°F	4.0°F	2026-10-12 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	94%	80.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-13 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	88%	80.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	60%	77.2°F	2.7°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
ICON	38%	75.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261013-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 06 · 20:00 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh runs hot-for-here: 77°F+ · Tue Oct 13

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗