KPIT / Wed Oct 14 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST50%Oct 14 · 09:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

95%

80%

48%

47%

12%

Consensus

50%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 53.4¢Risks 53.40u

ICONNO 46.6¢Risks 46.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +46.60u · ICON −46.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	9.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	17.5%	—	—	8.5%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	9.1%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	5.6%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	6.6%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	6.4%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	23.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	7.3%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	11.4%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	63.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	9.7%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	19.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	30.4%	—	—	—	—	12.7%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	58.6%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	29.8%	—	—	—	—	12.6%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	40.6%	—	6.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	51.2%	—	—	5.2%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	2.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	28.5%	—	—	8.1%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	1.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	1.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	—	0.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	2.4%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	—	2.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	8.6%	—	0.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	13.8%	20.0%	14.6%	1.1%	—	1.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	8.0%	—	3.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	42.9%	3.4%	0.7%	8.7%	—	1.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	3.8%	18.4%	1.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	36.1%	22.5%	0.2%	5.1%	—	3.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	22.6%	27.4%	1.9%	—	—	5.6%
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	20.8%	29.1%	1.5%	67.8%	—	20.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	18.4%	20.2%	12.1%	—	—	10.0%
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	26.6%	13.4%	9.4%	20.9%	—	22.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	60.3%	13.2%	2.2%	—	—	17.1%
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	34.8%	24.7%	5.4%	41.3%	—	25.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	44.0%	11.0%	3.4%	—	—	2.7%
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	19.0%	8.2%	20.4%	53.1%	13.4%	30.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	33.5%	9.2%	52.1%	—	—	27.9%
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	11.4%	6.2%	16.2%	6.6%	—	15.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	27.6%	6.3%	30.5%	0.4%	—	19.8%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	37.4%	6.1%	50.0%	6.5%	39.6%	16.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	42.8%	9.2%	15.2%	1.9%	—	20.8%
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	52.5%	7.5%	4.3%	7.5%	73.4%	22.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	52.6%	7.2%	19.1%	4.3%	—	29.1%
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	54.0%	5.7%	6.1%	4.0%	26.2%	26.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	62.3%	17.3%	28.8%	7.6%	—	45.8%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	65.5%	24.5%	4.7%	5.9%	37.2%	62.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	60.5%	9.9%	19.2%	7.0%	—	32.5%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	19.2%	7.7%	7.1%	54.7%	20.3%	30.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	14.1%	6.8%	29.5%	—	18.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	95%	81.5°F	3.0°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	80%	79.0°F	2.9°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	48%	76.3°F	3.7°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	47%	76.3°F	2.8°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
National Blend	32%	75.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	25%	75.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-14 02:00	Pending
ICON	12%	72.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261014-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 08 · 11:25 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh runs hot-for-here: 77°F+ · Wed Oct 14

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗