KPIT / Wed Oct 14 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST50%Oct 14 · 09:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

95%

80%

48%

47%

12%

Consensus

50%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 53.4¢Risks 53.40u

ICONNO 46.6¢Risks 46.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +46.60u · ICON −46.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T09:46:51+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-08T11:25:16+00:00	11.3%	16.4%	53.5%	15.8%	0.5%
2026-10-08T12:10:40+00:00	11.3%	16.4%	53.5%	15.8%	0.5%
2026-10-08T12:55:49+00:00	11.3%	16.4%	53.5%	15.8%	0.5%
2026-10-08T13:40:56+00:00	27.9%	16.4%	53.5%	15.8%	0.5%
2026-10-08T14:30:25+00:00	27.8%	16.8%	53.5%	15.8%	0.5%
2026-10-08T15:15:50+00:00	27.8%	16.5%	53.5%	15.8%	0.5%
2026-10-08T16:01:32+00:00	27.8%	16.5%	53.5%	15.8%	0.5%
2026-10-08T16:46:38+00:00	27.8%	16.5%	53.5%	15.8%	0.5%
2026-10-08T17:31:44+00:00	27.8%	16.5%	53.5%	15.8%	0.5%
2026-10-08T18:16:49+00:00	27.8%	16.5%	53.5%	15.8%	0.5%
2026-10-08T19:01:54+00:00	27.8%	16.5%	53.5%	15.8%	0.5%
2026-10-08T19:46:59+00:00	39.5%	16.5%	53.5%	1.0%	44.2%
2026-10-08T20:32:12+00:00	39.5%	16.5%	53.5%	1.0%	44.2%
2026-10-08T21:17:20+00:00	39.5%	16.5%	53.5%	1.0%	44.2%
2026-10-08T22:02:30+00:00	39.5%	16.5%	53.5%	1.0%	44.2%
2026-10-08T22:47:36+00:00	39.5%	16.5%	53.5%	1.0%	44.2%
2026-10-08T23:32:44+00:00	39.5%	16.5%	78.7%	1.0%	44.3%
2026-10-09T00:17:55+00:00	39.5%	16.5%	78.7%	1.0%	44.3%
2026-10-09T01:03:07+00:00	39.5%	16.5%	78.7%	1.0%	44.3%
2026-10-09T01:48:12+00:00	27.8%	16.5%	78.7%	1.0%	44.3%
2026-10-09T02:33:33+00:00	27.8%	16.5%	78.7%	1.0%	44.3%
2026-10-09T03:18:49+00:00	27.8%	16.5%	78.7%	1.0%	44.3%
2026-10-09T04:05:04+00:00	27.8%	16.5%	78.7%	1.0%	44.3%
2026-10-09T04:50:12+00:00	27.8%	16.5%	78.7%	1.0%	44.3%
2026-10-09T05:35:18+00:00	27.8%	16.5%	61.3%	1.0%	44.3%
2026-10-09T06:20:26+00:00	27.8%	16.5%	61.3%	1.0%	44.3%
2026-10-09T07:05:32+00:00	27.8%	16.5%	61.3%	1.0%	44.3%
2026-10-09T07:50:45+00:00	74.4%	16.5%	61.3%	32.0%	12.9%
2026-10-09T08:37:12+00:00	74.4%	16.5%	61.3%	32.0%	12.9%
2026-10-09T09:22:17+00:00	74.4%	16.5%	61.3%	32.0%	12.9%
2026-10-09T10:07:23+00:00	74.4%	16.5%	61.3%	32.0%	12.9%
2026-10-09T10:52:29+00:00	74.4%	16.5%	61.3%	32.0%	12.9%
2026-10-09T11:37:36+00:00	74.4%	16.5%	61.3%	32.0%	12.9%
2026-10-09T12:23:10+00:00	74.4%	21.6%	61.3%	32.0%	12.9%
2026-10-09T13:08:25+00:00	74.4%	21.6%	61.3%	32.0%	12.9%
2026-10-09T13:53:30+00:00	18.4%	21.6%	61.3%	32.0%	12.9%
2026-10-09T14:42:07+00:00	18.4%	21.6%	61.3%	32.0%	12.9%
2026-10-09T15:27:18+00:00	18.4%	22.3%	61.3%	32.0%	12.9%
2026-10-09T16:13:13+00:00	18.4%	22.3%	61.3%	32.0%	12.9%
2026-10-09T16:58:25+00:00	18.4%	22.3%	57.9%	32.0%	12.9%
2026-10-09T17:43:32+00:00	18.4%	22.3%	57.9%	32.0%	12.9%
2026-10-09T18:28:38+00:00	18.4%	22.3%	57.9%	32.0%	12.9%
2026-10-09T19:13:43+00:00	18.4%	22.3%	57.9%	32.0%	12.9%
2026-10-09T19:58:50+00:00	68.9%	22.3%	57.9%	33.2%	42.5%
2026-10-09T20:44:01+00:00	68.9%	22.3%	57.9%	33.2%	42.5%
2026-10-09T21:29:10+00:00	68.9%	22.3%	57.9%	33.2%	42.5%
2026-10-09T22:14:36+00:00	68.9%	22.3%	57.9%	33.2%	42.5%
2026-10-09T22:59:41+00:00	68.9%	22.3%	57.9%	33.2%	42.5%
2026-10-09T23:44:48+00:00	68.9%	22.3%	57.9%	33.2%	42.5%
2026-10-10T00:29:59+00:00	68.9%	22.3%	57.9%	33.2%	42.5%
2026-10-10T01:15:14+00:00	68.9%	22.3%	57.9%	33.2%	42.5%
2026-10-10T02:00:41+00:00	54.9%	22.3%	57.9%	33.2%	42.5%
2026-10-10T02:45:58+00:00	54.9%	22.3%	57.9%	33.2%	42.5%
2026-10-10T03:31:21+00:00	54.9%	22.3%	57.9%	33.2%	42.5%
2026-10-10T04:16:36+00:00	54.9%	22.3%	57.9%	33.2%	42.5%
2026-10-10T05:03:03+00:00	54.9%	22.3%	70.7%	33.2%	42.5%
2026-10-10T05:48:13+00:00	54.9%	22.3%	70.7%	33.2%	42.5%
2026-10-10T06:33:20+00:00	54.9%	22.3%	70.7%	33.2%	42.5%
2026-10-10T07:18:25+00:00	54.9%	22.3%	70.7%	33.2%	42.5%
2026-10-10T08:03:30+00:00	54.3%	22.3%	70.7%	33.2%	42.5%
2026-10-10T08:48:39+00:00	54.3%	22.3%	70.7%	33.2%	42.5%
2026-10-10T09:33:44+00:00	54.3%	22.3%	70.7%	33.2%	42.5%
2026-10-10T10:18:54+00:00	54.3%	22.3%	70.7%	33.2%	42.5%
2026-10-10T11:04:03+00:00	54.3%	42.8%	70.7%	33.2%	42.5%
2026-10-10T11:49:13+00:00	54.3%	42.8%	70.7%	33.2%	42.5%
2026-10-10T12:34:19+00:00	54.3%	42.8%	70.7%	33.2%	42.5%
2026-10-10T13:19:24+00:00	54.3%	42.8%	70.7%	33.2%	42.5%
2026-10-10T14:04:42+00:00	51.7%	42.9%	70.7%	33.2%	42.5%
2026-10-10T14:53:45+00:00	51.7%	42.9%	70.7%	33.2%	42.5%
2026-10-10T15:39:25+00:00	51.7%	42.8%	70.7%	33.2%	42.5%
2026-10-10T16:24:36+00:00	51.7%	42.8%	70.7%	33.2%	42.5%
2026-10-10T17:09:43+00:00	51.7%	42.8%	41.5%	33.2%	42.5%
2026-10-10T17:54:52+00:00	51.7%	42.8%	41.5%	33.2%	42.5%
2026-10-10T18:40:19+00:00	51.7%	42.8%	41.5%	33.2%	42.5%
2026-10-10T19:25:31+00:00	62.8%	42.8%	41.5%	33.2%	25.2%
2026-10-10T20:10:40+00:00	62.8%	42.8%	41.5%	33.2%	25.2%
2026-10-10T20:55:54+00:00	62.8%	42.8%	41.5%	33.2%	25.2%
2026-10-10T21:41:27+00:00	62.8%	42.8%	41.5%	33.2%	25.2%
2026-10-10T22:26:41+00:00	62.8%	42.8%	41.5%	36.7%	25.2%
2026-10-10T23:13:29+00:00	62.8%	42.7%	74.1%	36.7%	25.2%
2026-10-10T23:58:37+00:00	62.8%	42.7%	74.1%	36.7%	25.2%
2026-10-11T00:43:43+00:00	62.8%	42.7%	74.1%	36.7%	25.2%
2026-10-11T01:28:58+00:00	86.6%	42.7%	74.1%	36.7%	25.2%
2026-10-11T02:14:10+00:00	86.6%	42.7%	74.1%	36.7%	25.2%
2026-10-11T02:59:17+00:00	86.6%	42.7%	74.1%	36.7%	25.2%
2026-10-11T03:44:33+00:00	86.6%	42.7%	74.1%	36.7%	25.2%
2026-10-11T04:30:38+00:00	86.6%	42.7%	74.1%	36.7%	25.2%
2026-10-11T05:16:01+00:00	86.6%	42.7%	92.7%	36.7%	25.2%
2026-10-11T06:01:14+00:00	86.6%	42.7%	92.7%	36.7%	25.2%
2026-10-11T06:46:23+00:00	86.6%	42.7%	92.7%	36.7%	25.2%
2026-10-11T07:31:36+00:00	71.9%	42.7%	92.7%	14.7%	25.2%
2026-10-11T08:18:00+00:00	71.9%	42.7%	92.7%	14.7%	25.2%
2026-10-11T09:03:06+00:00	71.9%	42.7%	92.7%	14.7%	25.2%
2026-10-11T09:48:14+00:00	71.9%	42.7%	92.7%	14.7%	25.2%
2026-10-11T10:33:31+00:00	71.9%	42.7%	92.7%	14.7%	25.2%
2026-10-11T11:19:41+00:00	71.9%	47.0%	87.6%	14.7%	25.2%
2026-10-11T12:05:20+00:00	71.9%	47.0%	87.6%	14.7%	25.2%
2026-10-11T12:50:26+00:00	71.9%	47.0%	87.6%	14.7%	25.2%
2026-10-11T13:35:37+00:00	78.5%	47.0%	87.6%	14.7%	25.2%
2026-10-11T14:26:10+00:00	78.5%	47.0%	87.6%	14.7%	25.2%
2026-10-11T15:11:25+00:00	78.5%	47.0%	87.6%	14.7%	25.2%
2026-10-11T15:57:16+00:00	78.5%	47.0%	87.6%	14.7%	25.2%
2026-10-11T16:42:24+00:00	78.5%	47.0%	87.6%	14.7%	25.2%
2026-10-11T17:27:58+00:00	78.5%	47.0%	89.9%	14.7%	25.2%
2026-10-11T18:13:06+00:00	78.5%	47.0%	89.9%	14.7%	25.2%
2026-10-11T18:58:16+00:00	78.5%	47.0%	89.9%	14.7%	25.2%
2026-10-11T19:43:28+00:00	56.5%	47.0%	89.9%	25.1%	11.8%
2026-10-11T20:28:37+00:00	56.5%	47.0%	89.9%	25.1%	11.8%
2026-10-11T21:13:48+00:00	56.5%	47.0%	89.9%	25.1%	11.8%
2026-10-11T21:58:57+00:00	56.5%	47.0%	89.9%	25.1%	11.8%
2026-10-11T22:44:08+00:00	56.5%	47.0%	89.9%	25.1%	11.8%
2026-10-11T23:29:26+00:00	56.5%	47.0%	90.9%	25.1%	11.8%
2026-10-12T00:14:42+00:00	56.5%	47.0%	90.9%	25.1%	11.8%
2026-10-12T01:00:07+00:00	56.5%	47.0%	90.9%	25.1%	11.8%
2026-10-12T01:45:18+00:00	71.9%	47.0%	90.9%	25.1%	11.8%
2026-10-12T02:30:27+00:00	71.9%	47.0%	90.9%	25.1%	11.8%
2026-10-12T03:15:36+00:00	71.9%	47.0%	90.9%	25.1%	11.8%
2026-10-12T04:01:00+00:00	71.9%	47.0%	90.9%	25.1%	11.8%
2026-10-12T04:47:13+00:00	71.9%	47.0%	90.9%	25.1%	11.8%
2026-10-12T05:32:19+00:00	71.9%	47.0%	88.8%	25.1%	11.8%
2026-10-12T06:17:27+00:00	71.9%	47.0%	88.8%	25.1%	11.8%
2026-10-12T07:02:32+00:00	71.9%	47.0%	88.8%	25.1%	11.8%
2026-10-12T07:47:45+00:00	48.1%	47.0%	88.8%	14.7%	4.8%
2026-10-12T08:34:23+00:00	48.1%	47.0%	88.8%	14.7%	4.8%
2026-10-12T09:19:36+00:00	48.1%	47.0%	88.8%	14.7%	4.8%
2026-10-12T10:04:56+00:00	48.1%	47.0%	88.8%	14.7%	4.8%
2026-10-12T10:50:06+00:00	48.1%	47.0%	88.8%	14.7%	4.8%
2026-10-12T11:35:21+00:00	48.1%	47.0%	60.2%	14.7%	4.8%
2026-10-12T12:20:46+00:00	48.1%	51.6%	60.2%	14.7%	4.8%
2026-10-12T13:05:53+00:00	48.1%	51.6%	60.2%	14.7%	4.8%
2026-10-12T13:51:02+00:00	68.7%	51.6%	60.2%	14.7%	4.8%
2026-10-12T14:41:15+00:00	67.8%	51.6%	58.9%	14.7%	4.8%
2026-10-12T15:26:38+00:00	67.8%	51.6%	58.9%	14.7%	4.8%
2026-10-12T16:12:54+00:00	67.8%	48.4%	58.9%	14.7%	4.8%
2026-10-12T16:58:01+00:00	67.8%	48.4%	74.0%	14.7%	4.8%
2026-10-12T17:43:11+00:00	67.8%	48.4%	74.0%	14.7%	4.8%
2026-10-12T18:28:18+00:00	67.8%	48.4%	74.0%	14.7%	4.8%
2026-10-12T19:13:24+00:00	67.8%	48.4%	74.0%	14.7%	4.8%
2026-10-12T19:58:31+00:00	76.0%	48.4%	74.0%	13.6%	5.7%
2026-10-12T20:43:40+00:00	76.0%	48.4%	74.0%	13.6%	5.7%
2026-10-12T21:28:48+00:00	76.0%	48.4%	74.0%	13.6%	5.7%
2026-10-12T22:13:55+00:00	76.0%	48.4%	74.0%	13.6%	5.7%
2026-10-12T22:59:06+00:00	76.0%	48.4%	81.6%	13.6%	5.7%
2026-10-12T23:44:16+00:00	76.0%	48.4%	81.6%	13.6%	5.7%
2026-10-13T00:29:22+00:00	76.0%	48.4%	81.6%	13.6%	5.7%
2026-10-13T01:14:38+00:00	76.0%	48.4%	81.6%	13.6%	5.7%
2026-10-13T01:59:45+00:00	79.7%	48.4%	81.6%	13.6%	5.7%
2026-10-13T02:44:54+00:00	79.7%	48.4%	81.6%	13.6%	5.7%
2026-10-13T03:30:00+00:00	79.7%	48.4%	81.6%	13.6%	5.7%
2026-10-13T04:15:16+00:00	79.7%	48.4%	81.6%	13.6%	5.7%
2026-10-13T05:01:43+00:00	79.7%	48.4%	91.2%	13.6%	5.7%
2026-10-13T05:46:49+00:00	79.7%	48.4%	91.2%	13.6%	5.7%
2026-10-13T06:32:01+00:00	79.7%	48.4%	91.2%	13.6%	5.7%
2026-10-13T07:17:15+00:00	79.7%	48.4%	91.2%	13.6%	5.7%
2026-10-13T08:02:40+00:00	84.9%	48.4%	91.2%	42.6%	5.0%
2026-10-13T08:49:38+00:00	84.9%	48.4%	91.2%	42.6%	5.0%
2026-10-13T09:34:43+00:00	84.9%	48.4%	91.2%	42.6%	5.0%
2026-10-13T10:19:51+00:00	84.9%	48.4%	91.2%	42.6%	5.0%
2026-10-13T11:05:09+00:00	84.9%	50.0%	92.9%	42.6%	5.0%
2026-10-13T11:50:34+00:00	84.9%	50.0%	92.9%	42.6%	5.0%
2026-10-13T12:35:47+00:00	84.9%	50.0%	92.9%	42.6%	5.0%
2026-10-13T13:20:53+00:00	84.9%	50.0%	92.9%	42.6%	5.0%
2026-10-13T14:05:59+00:00	84.9%	50.0%	93.0%	42.6%	5.0%
2026-10-13T14:56:02+00:00	84.9%	47.2%	93.0%	42.6%	5.0%
2026-10-13T15:41:15+00:00	84.9%	47.2%	93.0%	42.6%	5.0%
2026-10-13T16:27:01+00:00	84.9%	47.2%	93.0%	42.6%	5.0%
2026-10-13T17:12:08+00:00	84.9%	47.2%	84.8%	42.6%	5.0%
2026-10-13T17:57:16+00:00	84.9%	47.2%	84.8%	42.6%	5.0%
2026-10-13T18:42:21+00:00	84.9%	47.2%	84.8%	42.6%	5.0%
2026-10-13T19:27:26+00:00	85.5%	47.2%	84.8%	42.6%	4.7%
2026-10-13T20:12:32+00:00	85.5%	47.2%	84.8%	42.6%	4.7%
2026-10-13T20:57:41+00:00	85.5%	47.2%	84.8%	42.6%	4.7%
2026-10-13T21:42:58+00:00	85.5%	47.2%	84.8%	42.6%	4.7%
2026-10-13T22:28:22+00:00	85.5%	47.2%	84.8%	47.9%	4.7%
2026-10-13T23:13:32+00:00	85.5%	47.2%	80.4%	47.9%	4.7%
2026-10-13T23:58:43+00:00	85.5%	47.2%	80.4%	47.9%	4.7%
2026-10-14T00:43:51+00:00	85.5%	47.2%	80.4%	47.9%	4.7%
2026-10-14T01:29:07+00:00	88.7%	47.2%	80.4%	47.9%	4.7%
2026-10-14T02:14:16+00:00	88.7%	47.2%	80.4%	47.9%	4.7%
2026-10-14T02:59:29+00:00	88.7%	47.2%	80.4%	47.9%	4.7%
2026-10-14T03:45:25+00:00	88.7%	47.2%	80.4%	47.9%	4.7%
2026-10-14T04:30:44+00:00	88.7%	47.2%	80.4%	47.9%	4.7%
2026-10-14T05:15:50+00:00	88.7%	47.2%	80.4%	47.9%	4.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:57+00:00	88.7%	47.2%	80.4%	47.9%	4.7%
2026-10-14T06:46:10+00:00	88.7%	47.2%	80.4%	47.9%	4.7%
2026-10-14T07:31:24+00:00	94.9%	47.2%	80.4%	47.9%	11.9%
2026-10-14T08:16:33+00:00	94.9%	47.2%	80.4%	47.9%	11.9%
2026-10-14T09:01:43+00:00	94.9%	47.2%	80.4%	47.9%	11.9%
2026-10-14T09:46:51+00:00	94.9%	47.2%	80.4%	47.9%	11.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	95%	81.5°F	3.0°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	80%	79.0°F	2.9°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	48%	76.3°F	3.7°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	47%	76.3°F	2.8°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
National Blend	32%	75.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	25%	75.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-14 02:00	Pending
ICON	12%	72.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261014-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 08 · 11:25 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh runs hot-for-here: 77°F+ · Wed Oct 14

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗