KPIT / Fri Oct 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 67°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST76%Oct 09 · 10:52 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

87%

85%

78%

62%

54%

Consensus

76%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 70.2¢Risks 70.15u

AIFSNO 29.8¢Risks 29.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +29.85u · AIFS −29.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	5.9%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	47.9%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	46.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	39.0%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	84.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	45.7%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	15.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	40.7%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	5.7%	—	—	—	—	28.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	8.8%	—	0.9%	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	29.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	56.8%	—	28.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	97.3%	—	—	61.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	88.2%	—	98.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	97.2%	—	—	73.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	99.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	25.4%	83.3%	96.1%	—	—	43.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	43.8%	—	97.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	59.7%	24.6%	86.7%	3.2%	—	47.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	66.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	56.6%	98.9%	72.2%	19.4%	—	39.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	65.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	56.8%	82.1%	60.6%	5.2%	—	43.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	97.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	64.1%	52.4%	86.0%	10.0%	—	42.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	45.1%	5.1%	43.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	76.8%	53.3%	10.1%	—	70.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	10.7%	7.5%	61.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	11.3%	10.5%	51.7%	81.6%	—	55.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	77.8%	50.9%	—	—	32.6%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	55.5%	27.4%	60.9%	79.1%	—	54.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	62.1%	84.6%	59.4%	—	—	50.9%
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	67.8%	86.9%	69.6%	72.1%	—	62.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	74.3%	84.2%	75.1%	—	—	71.8%
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	70.6%	84.9%	72.4%	81.7%	—	78.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	69.3%	88.9%	92.8%	—	—	93.8%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	76.2%	94.7%	71.8%	81.7%	—	98.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	76.0%	95.0%	97.8%	79.4%	—	98.6%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	64.8%	98.2%	99.0%	82.5%	96.7%	98.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	68.5%	96.5%	79.2%	86.8%	—	96.3%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	73.4%	96.3%	82.6%	82.6%	93.3%	98.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	82.6%	98.8%	80.0%	98.5%	—	97.0%
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	81.8%	97.0%	83.5%	96.5%	96.8%	95.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	79.9%	96.3%	83.6%	91.9%	—	93.3%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	82.8%	97.5%	86.2%	92.2%	94.1%	94.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	90.8%	97.8%	90.1%	93.0%	—	94.4%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	3.7%	99.4%	95.6%	95.9%	99.4%	97.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.8%	0.0%	1.1%	—	1.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	87%	72.4°F	5.3°F	2026-10-08 18:00	Pending
ICON	85%	76.6°F	9.8°F	2026-10-09 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	78%	71.4°F	6.3°F	2026-10-09 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	62%	69.0°F	8.0°F	2026-10-08 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	54%	67.0°F	5.6°F	2026-10-09 00:00	Pending
National Blend	52%	67.0°F	11.4°F	2026-10-09 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 67°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261016-TMAX-GE67
Opened Oct 09 · 07:50 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 67°F · Fri Oct 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗