KPIT / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 50°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST92%Oct 17 · 06:58 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

95%

89%

88%

70%

Consensus

92%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 85.2¢Risks 85.25u

HRESNO 14.7¢Risks 14.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +14.75u · HRES −14.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	82.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	32.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	95.9%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	83.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	86.9%	—	—	—	—	92.7%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	99.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	96.8%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	95.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	99.6%	—	—	—	—	97.1%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	98.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	83.8%	—	—	—	—	98.4%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—	96.7%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	86.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	95.9%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	66.6%	—	—	—	—	90.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	43.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	92.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	99.0%	—	—	—	—	93.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	92.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	99.8%	—	—	95.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	96.0%	—	99.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	99.8%	—	99.4%	—	—	97.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	88.7%	—	95.8%	—	—	94.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	72.9%	—	83.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	94.9%	—	—	95.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	33.9%	—	99.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	20.8%	100.0%	96.6%	—	—	90.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	76.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	18.4%	79.6%	94.0%	74.8%	—	90.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	20.9%	—	92.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	81.6%	93.6%	—	84.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	18.4%	—	33.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	48.5%	55.3%	35.8%	89.0%	—	78.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	65.9%	—	29.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	67.0%	57.1%	39.7%	58.7%	—	82.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	47.5%	63.6%	31.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	48.3%	93.2%	40.9%	78.1%	—	74.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	59.3%	86.8%	38.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	29.1%	68.6%	50.0%	47.4%	—	66.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	35.1%	77.8%	63.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	33.9%	71.0%	79.7%	60.9%	—	62.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	43.4%	80.4%	85.2%	—	—	73.9%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	44.2%	92.1%	70.4%	82.9%	—	79.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	48.0%	92.0%	69.2%	—	—	85.4%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	54.1%	98.3%	81.7%	78.8%	—	87.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	54.2%	93.5%	59.5%	—	—	78.7%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	56.5%	95.0%	53.3%	56.5%	91.5%	77.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	56.7%	96.0%	54.5%	55.6%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	59.2%	94.9%	68.0%	68.0%	—	66.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	97.5%	80.9%	69.6%	—	56.0%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	56.2%	94.5%	85.6%	70.2%	93.3%	56.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	56.4%	97.0%	87.2%	65.1%	—	57.7%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	59.3%	96.5%	89.9%	65.7%	91.1%	59.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	61.0%	95.7%	89.6%	65.0%	—	61.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	64.2%	94.9%	92.7%	66.9%	87.8%	61.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	63.3%	56.0%	75.2%	67.5%	—	57.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	69.7%	63.9%	80.8%	72.4%	57.9%	65.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	84.0%	81.9%	78.5%	—	81.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	60.6°F	3.2°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	95%	54.2°F	2.9°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	89%	54.3°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
ICON	88%	53.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
National Blend	75%	51.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	70%	51.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	50.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-17 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 50°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261017-TMAX-GE50
Opened Oct 12 · 15:26 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 50°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗