KPIT / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 50°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST92%Oct 17 · 06:58 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

95%

89%

88%

70%

Consensus

92%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 85.2¢Risks 85.25u

HRESNO 14.7¢Risks 14.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +14.75u · HRES −14.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T06:58:42+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T15:26:38+00:00	78.1%	96.5%	94.4%	90.9%	72.4%
2026-10-12T16:12:54+00:00	78.1%	96.1%	94.4%	90.9%	72.4%
2026-10-12T16:58:01+00:00	78.1%	96.1%	93.3%	90.9%	72.4%
2026-10-12T17:43:11+00:00	78.1%	96.1%	93.3%	90.9%	72.4%
2026-10-12T18:28:18+00:00	78.1%	96.1%	93.3%	90.9%	72.4%
2026-10-12T19:13:24+00:00	78.1%	96.1%	93.3%	90.9%	72.4%
2026-10-12T19:58:31+00:00	78.6%	96.1%	93.3%	75.0%	95.0%
2026-10-12T20:43:40+00:00	78.6%	96.1%	93.3%	75.0%	95.0%
2026-10-12T21:28:48+00:00	78.6%	96.1%	93.3%	75.0%	95.0%
2026-10-12T22:13:55+00:00	78.6%	96.1%	93.3%	75.0%	95.0%
2026-10-12T22:59:06+00:00	78.6%	96.1%	92.9%	75.0%	95.0%
2026-10-12T23:44:16+00:00	78.6%	96.1%	92.9%	75.0%	95.0%
2026-10-13T00:29:22+00:00	78.6%	96.1%	92.9%	75.0%	95.0%
2026-10-13T01:14:38+00:00	78.6%	96.1%	92.9%	75.0%	95.0%
2026-10-13T01:59:45+00:00	85.1%	96.1%	92.9%	75.0%	95.0%
2026-10-13T02:44:54+00:00	85.1%	96.1%	92.9%	75.0%	95.0%
2026-10-13T03:30:00+00:00	85.1%	96.1%	92.9%	75.0%	95.0%
2026-10-14T02:59:30+00:00	77.0%	93.3%	84.0%	64.8%	79.7%
2026-10-14T03:45:25+00:00	77.0%	93.3%	84.0%	64.8%	79.7%
2026-10-14T04:30:44+00:00	77.0%	93.3%	84.0%	64.8%	79.7%
2026-10-14T05:15:51+00:00	77.0%	93.3%	84.0%	64.8%	79.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:57+00:00	77.0%	93.3%	84.0%	64.8%	79.7%
2026-10-14T06:46:10+00:00	77.0%	93.3%	84.0%	64.8%	79.7%
2026-10-14T07:31:24+00:00	79.2%	93.3%	84.0%	64.8%	94.9%
2026-10-14T08:16:33+00:00	79.2%	93.3%	84.0%	64.8%	94.9%
2026-10-14T09:01:43+00:00	79.2%	93.3%	84.0%	64.8%	94.9%
2026-10-14T09:46:51+00:00	79.2%	93.3%	84.0%	64.8%	94.9%
2026-10-14T10:32:11+00:00	79.2%	93.3%	84.0%	77.0%	94.9%
2026-10-14T11:20:33+00:00	79.2%	95.5%	94.2%	77.0%	94.9%
2026-10-14T12:06:11+00:00	79.2%	95.5%	94.2%	77.0%	94.9%
2026-10-14T12:51:18+00:00	79.2%	95.5%	94.2%	77.0%	94.9%
2026-10-14T13:36:26+00:00	81.8%	95.5%	94.2%	77.0%	94.9%
2026-10-14T14:26:47+00:00	81.8%	95.4%	94.2%	77.0%	94.9%
2026-10-14T15:12:01+00:00	81.8%	95.7%	94.2%	77.0%	94.9%
2026-10-14T15:57:52+00:00	81.8%	95.7%	94.2%	77.0%	94.9%
2026-10-14T16:43:01+00:00	81.8%	95.7%	94.2%	77.0%	94.9%
2026-10-14T17:28:10+00:00	81.8%	95.7%	93.5%	77.0%	94.9%
2026-10-14T18:13:18+00:00	81.8%	95.7%	93.5%	77.0%	94.9%
2026-10-14T18:58:25+00:00	81.8%	95.7%	93.5%	77.0%	94.9%
2026-10-14T19:43:31+00:00	85.3%	95.7%	93.5%	79.0%	98.8%
2026-10-14T20:28:47+00:00	85.3%	95.7%	93.5%	79.0%	98.8%
2026-10-14T21:13:54+00:00	85.3%	95.7%	93.5%	79.0%	98.8%
2026-10-14T21:59:00+00:00	85.3%	95.7%	93.5%	79.0%	98.8%
2026-10-14T22:44:07+00:00	85.3%	95.7%	93.5%	79.0%	98.8%
2026-10-14T23:29:22+00:00	85.3%	95.7%	93.5%	79.0%	98.8%
2026-10-15T00:14:38+00:00	85.3%	95.7%	92.3%	79.0%	98.8%
2026-10-15T01:01:07+00:00	85.3%	95.7%	92.3%	79.0%	98.8%
2026-10-15T01:46:15+00:00	85.3%	95.7%	92.3%	79.0%	98.8%
2026-10-15T02:31:27+00:00	85.3%	95.7%	92.3%	79.0%	98.8%
2026-10-15T03:16:35+00:00	85.3%	95.7%	92.3%	79.0%	98.8%
2026-10-15T04:01:48+00:00	85.3%	95.7%	92.3%	79.0%	98.8%
2026-10-15T04:47:49+00:00	85.3%	95.7%	92.3%	79.0%	98.8%
2026-10-15T05:33:15+00:00	85.3%	95.7%	92.7%	79.0%	98.8%
2026-10-15T06:18:25+00:00	85.3%	95.7%	92.7%	79.0%	98.8%
2026-10-15T07:03:33+00:00	85.3%	95.7%	92.7%	79.0%	98.8%
2026-10-15T07:48:58+00:00	87.0%	95.7%	92.7%	67.8%	94.6%
2026-10-15T08:35:48+00:00	87.0%	95.7%	92.7%	67.8%	94.6%
2026-10-15T09:21:24+00:00	87.0%	95.7%	92.7%	67.8%	94.6%
2026-10-15T10:07:09+00:00	87.0%	95.7%	92.7%	67.8%	94.6%
2026-10-15T10:52:48+00:00	87.0%	95.7%	92.7%	67.8%	94.6%
2026-10-15T11:39:06+00:00	87.0%	95.7%	92.7%	67.8%	94.6%
2026-10-15T12:24:48+00:00	87.0%	99.0%	92.7%	67.8%	94.6%
2026-10-15T13:10:05+00:00	87.0%	99.0%	92.7%	67.8%	94.6%
2026-10-15T13:55:46+00:00	87.1%	98.9%	92.7%	67.8%	94.6%
2026-10-15T14:48:22+00:00	87.1%	98.9%	92.7%	67.8%	94.6%
2026-10-15T15:33:43+00:00	87.1%	99.2%	92.7%	67.8%	94.6%
2026-10-15T16:19:53+00:00	87.1%	99.2%	92.7%	67.8%	94.6%
2026-10-15T17:05:19+00:00	87.1%	99.2%	94.3%	67.8%	94.6%
2026-10-15T17:50:34+00:00	87.1%	99.2%	94.3%	67.8%	94.6%
2026-10-15T18:35:54+00:00	87.1%	99.2%	94.3%	67.8%	94.6%
2026-10-15T19:21:05+00:00	87.1%	99.2%	94.3%	67.8%	94.6%
2026-10-15T20:06:13+00:00	88.1%	99.2%	94.3%	68.7%	93.3%
2026-10-15T20:51:26+00:00	88.1%	99.2%	94.3%	68.7%	93.3%
2026-10-15T21:36:40+00:00	88.1%	99.2%	94.3%	68.7%	93.3%
2026-10-15T22:21:48+00:00	88.1%	99.2%	94.3%	68.7%	93.3%
2026-10-15T23:06:58+00:00	88.1%	99.2%	93.9%	68.7%	93.3%
2026-10-15T23:52:12+00:00	88.1%	99.2%	93.9%	68.7%	93.3%
2026-10-16T00:37:21+00:00	88.1%	99.2%	93.9%	68.7%	93.3%
2026-10-16T01:22:40+00:00	83.7%	99.2%	93.9%	68.7%	93.3%
2026-10-16T02:07:57+00:00	83.7%	99.2%	93.9%	68.7%	93.3%
2026-10-16T02:53:27+00:00	83.7%	99.2%	93.9%	68.7%	93.3%
2026-10-16T03:38:38+00:00	83.7%	99.2%	93.9%	68.7%	93.3%
2026-10-16T04:23:53+00:00	83.7%	99.2%	93.9%	68.7%	93.3%
2026-10-16T05:10:22+00:00	83.7%	99.2%	92.2%	68.7%	93.3%
2026-10-16T05:55:48+00:00	83.7%	99.2%	92.2%	68.7%	93.3%
2026-10-16T06:41:01+00:00	83.7%	99.2%	92.2%	68.7%	93.3%
2026-10-16T07:26:12+00:00	87.2%	99.2%	92.2%	68.7%	86.0%
2026-10-16T08:11:21+00:00	87.2%	99.2%	92.2%	68.7%	86.0%
2026-10-16T08:56:32+00:00	87.2%	99.2%	92.2%	68.7%	86.0%
2026-10-16T09:41:40+00:00	87.2%	99.2%	92.2%	68.7%	86.0%
2026-10-16T10:26:46+00:00	87.2%	99.2%	92.2%	68.7%	86.0%
2026-10-16T11:12:05+00:00	87.2%	99.9%	93.9%	68.7%	86.0%
2026-10-16T11:57:35+00:00	87.2%	99.9%	93.9%	68.7%	86.0%
2026-10-16T12:42:45+00:00	87.2%	99.9%	93.9%	68.7%	86.0%
2026-10-16T13:28:00+00:00	87.7%	99.9%	93.9%	63.7%	86.0%
2026-10-16T14:19:39+00:00	87.8%	99.9%	93.9%	63.7%	85.9%
2026-10-16T15:05:09+00:00	87.8%	100.0%	93.9%	63.7%	85.9%
2026-10-16T15:50:53+00:00	87.8%	100.0%	93.9%	63.7%	85.9%
2026-10-16T16:36:05+00:00	87.8%	100.0%	93.9%	63.7%	85.9%
2026-10-16T17:21:17+00:00	87.8%	100.0%	93.0%	63.7%	85.9%
2026-10-16T18:06:35+00:00	87.8%	100.0%	93.0%	63.7%	85.9%
2026-10-16T18:51:41+00:00	87.8%	100.0%	93.0%	63.7%	85.9%
2026-10-16T19:36:51+00:00	88.3%	100.0%	93.0%	63.7%	87.7%
2026-10-16T20:22:21+00:00	88.3%	100.0%	93.0%	63.7%	87.7%
2026-10-16T21:07:44+00:00	88.3%	100.0%	93.0%	63.7%	87.7%
2026-10-16T21:52:50+00:00	88.3%	100.0%	93.0%	63.7%	87.7%
2026-10-16T22:37:58+00:00	88.3%	100.0%	93.0%	70.5%	87.7%
2026-10-16T23:23:16+00:00	88.3%	100.0%	93.0%	70.5%	87.7%
2026-10-17T00:08:46+00:00	88.3%	100.0%	93.0%	70.5%	87.7%
2026-10-17T00:54:55+00:00	88.3%	100.0%	93.0%	70.5%	87.7%
2026-10-17T01:40:04+00:00	88.8%	100.0%	93.0%	70.5%	87.7%
2026-10-17T02:25:17+00:00	88.8%	100.0%	93.0%	70.5%	87.7%
2026-10-17T03:10:26+00:00	88.8%	100.0%	93.0%	70.5%	87.7%
2026-10-17T03:55:35+00:00	88.8%	100.0%	93.0%	70.5%	87.7%
2026-10-17T04:41:00+00:00	88.8%	100.0%	93.0%	70.5%	87.7%
2026-10-17T05:28:17+00:00	88.8%	100.0%	93.0%	70.5%	87.7%
2026-10-17T06:13:34+00:00	88.8%	100.0%	94.7%	70.5%	87.7%
2026-10-17T06:58:42+00:00	88.8%	100.0%	94.7%	70.5%	87.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	60.6°F	3.2°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	95%	54.2°F	2.9°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	89%	54.3°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
ICON	88%	53.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
National Blend	75%	51.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	70%	51.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	50.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-17 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 50°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261017-TMAX-GE50
Opened Oct 12 · 15:26 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 50°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗