KPIT / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 51°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST73%Oct 14 · 02:14 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

77%

73%

70%

57%

Consensus

73%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 73.6¢Risks 73.60u

HRESNO 26.4¢Risks 26.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +26.40u · HRES −26.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	27.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	94.5%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	83.8%	—	—	—	—	90.7%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	99.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	95.7%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	93.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	99.5%	—	—	—	—	96.1%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	98.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	—	—	—	97.7%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	—	—	—	95.6%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	83.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	94.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	61.6%	—	—	—	—	88.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	37.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	44.5%	—	—	—	—	90.7%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	66.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	98.5%	—	—	—	—	91.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	90.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	99.7%	—	—	94.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	94.5%	—	99.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	99.6%	—	99.0%	—	—	96.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	43.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	85.4%	—	94.2%	—	—	93.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	67.3%	—	78.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	52.6%	—	92.9%	—	—	94.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	28.0%	—	98.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	16.3%	100.0%	95.2%	—	—	87.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	71.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	14.1%	74.3%	91.5%	68.9%	—	87.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	16.1%	—	88.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	76.3%	91.0%	—	79.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	13.9%	—	26.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	40.9%	47.7%	28.9%	84.9%	—	72.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	22.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	59.5%	49.2%	32.3%	50.8%	—	76.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	39.5%	55.7%	25.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	40.1%	89.9%	33.0%	71.4%	—	67.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	50.9%	81.6%	30.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	22.1%	60.4%	41.3%	38.8%	—	57.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	27.1%	70.6%	54.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	25.9%	62.7%	72.6%	51.8%	—	53.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	34.3%	73.2%	79.0%	—	—	65.7%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	34.8%	87.9%	61.5%	76.0%	—	72.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	38.2%	87.6%	59.9%	—	—	78.9%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	43.9%	96.8%	74.1%	70.6%	—	81.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	43.7%	89.4%	48.9%	—	—	70.2%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	45.6%	91.5%	42.4%	45.6%	86.3%	67.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	45.5%	92.9%	43.3%	44.4%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	47.7%	91.0%	57.0%	57.0%	—	55.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	38.1%	95.2%	71.7%	58.4%	—	44.0%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	43.8%	90.0%	77.3%	58.7%	88.2%	43.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	43.6%	94.0%	79.1%	52.6%	—	44.9%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	46.0%	93.0%	82.7%	52.7%	84.3%	46.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	47.2%	91.3%	81.8%	51.4%	—	47.2%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	89.8%	86.2%	52.9%	78.8%	47.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	48.5%	41.0%	61.9%	53.0%	—	42.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	54.7%	48.4%	68.3%	57.9%	42.1%	50.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	71.9%	69.0%	64.5%	—	69.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	90%	56.6°F	4.7°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	77%	53.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
ICON	73%	53.5°F	4.8°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	70%	52.9°F	4.6°F	2026-10-13 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	57%	51.4°F	5.0°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	51.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-13 14:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	51.0°F	5.0°F	2026-10-13 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 51°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261017-TMAX-GE51
Opened Oct 13 · 04:15 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 51°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗