KPIT / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 51°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST73%Oct 14 · 02:14 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

77%

73%

70%

57%

Consensus

73%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 73.6¢Risks 73.60u

HRESNO 26.4¢Risks 26.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +26.40u · HRES −26.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T02:14:16+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T04:15:17+00:00	79.8%	94.3%	89.0%	69.2%	93.1%
2026-10-13T05:01:43+00:00	79.8%	94.3%	89.9%	69.2%	93.1%
2026-10-13T05:46:49+00:00	79.8%	94.3%	89.9%	69.2%	93.1%
2026-10-13T06:32:01+00:00	79.8%	94.3%	89.9%	69.2%	93.1%
2026-10-13T07:17:15+00:00	79.8%	94.3%	89.9%	69.2%	93.1%
2026-10-13T08:02:40+00:00	56.0%	94.3%	89.9%	61.0%	72.0%
2026-10-13T08:49:38+00:00	56.0%	94.3%	89.9%	61.0%	72.0%
2026-10-13T09:34:43+00:00	56.0%	94.3%	89.9%	61.0%	72.0%
2026-10-13T10:19:51+00:00	56.0%	94.3%	89.9%	61.0%	72.0%
2026-10-13T11:05:09+00:00	56.0%	93.0%	72.2%	61.0%	72.0%
2026-10-13T11:50:34+00:00	56.0%	93.0%	72.2%	61.0%	72.0%
2026-10-13T12:35:47+00:00	56.0%	93.0%	72.2%	61.0%	72.0%
2026-10-13T13:20:53+00:00	56.0%	93.0%	72.2%	61.0%	72.0%
2026-10-13T14:05:59+00:00	62.8%	93.0%	72.3%	61.0%	71.9%
2026-10-13T14:56:02+00:00	62.8%	90.1%	72.3%	61.0%	71.9%
2026-10-13T15:41:15+00:00	62.8%	90.1%	72.3%	61.0%	71.9%
2026-10-13T16:27:01+00:00	62.8%	90.1%	72.3%	61.0%	71.9%
2026-10-13T17:12:08+00:00	62.8%	90.1%	78.2%	61.0%	71.9%
2026-10-13T17:57:16+00:00	62.8%	90.1%	78.2%	61.0%	71.9%
2026-10-13T18:42:21+00:00	62.8%	90.1%	78.2%	61.0%	71.9%
2026-10-13T19:27:26+00:00	62.0%	90.1%	78.2%	61.0%	73.3%
2026-10-13T20:12:32+00:00	62.0%	90.1%	78.2%	61.0%	73.3%
2026-10-13T20:57:41+00:00	62.0%	90.1%	78.2%	61.0%	73.3%
2026-10-13T21:42:58+00:00	62.0%	90.1%	78.2%	61.0%	73.3%
2026-10-13T22:28:22+00:00	62.0%	90.1%	78.2%	57.1%	73.3%
2026-10-13T23:13:32+00:00	62.0%	90.1%	76.6%	57.1%	73.3%
2026-10-13T23:58:43+00:00	62.0%	90.1%	76.6%	57.1%	73.3%
2026-10-14T00:43:51+00:00	62.0%	90.1%	76.6%	57.1%	73.3%
2026-10-14T01:29:07+00:00	69.9%	90.1%	76.6%	57.1%	73.3%
2026-10-14T02:14:16+00:00	69.9%	90.1%	76.6%	57.1%	73.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	90%	56.6°F	4.7°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	77%	53.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
ICON	73%	53.5°F	4.8°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	70%	52.9°F	4.6°F	2026-10-13 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	57%	51.4°F	5.0°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	51.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-13 14:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	51.0°F	5.0°F	2026-10-13 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 51°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261017-TMAX-GE51
Opened Oct 13 · 04:15 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 51°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗