KPIT / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≤ 49°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST8%Oct 17 · 06:58 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

30%

12%

11%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 14.8¢Risks 14.75u

EPSNO 85.2¢Risks 85.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +85.25u · EPS −85.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	67.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	4.2%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	7.3%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	3.2%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	2.9%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	1.6%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	3.3%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	—	—	—	4.2%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	33.4%	—	—	—	—	9.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	57.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	7.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	6.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	7.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	0.2%	—	—	4.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	0.6%	—	—	2.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	11.3%	—	4.2%	—	—	5.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	27.1%	—	16.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	5.1%	—	—	4.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	66.1%	—	0.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	79.2%	0.0%	3.4%	—	—	9.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	23.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	81.6%	20.4%	6.0%	25.2%	—	9.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	79.1%	—	8.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	79.5%	—	18.4%	6.4%	—	15.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	81.6%	—	66.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	51.5%	44.7%	64.2%	11.0%	—	21.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	34.1%	—	70.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	42.9%	60.3%	41.3%	—	17.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	52.4%	36.4%	68.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	51.7%	6.9%	59.1%	21.9%	—	25.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	40.7%	13.2%	61.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	70.9%	31.4%	50.0%	52.6%	—	33.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	64.9%	22.2%	36.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	66.1%	28.9%	20.3%	39.1%	—	37.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	56.6%	19.6%	14.8%	—	—	26.1%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	55.8%	7.9%	29.6%	17.1%	—	20.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	52.0%	8.0%	30.8%	—	—	14.6%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	45.9%	1.7%	18.3%	21.2%	—	12.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	45.8%	6.5%	40.6%	—	—	21.3%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	43.5%	5.0%	46.7%	43.5%	8.5%	23.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	43.3%	4.0%	45.5%	44.4%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	40.8%	5.1%	32.0%	32.0%	—	33.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	2.5%	19.1%	30.4%	—	44.0%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	43.8%	5.5%	14.4%	29.8%	6.7%	43.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	43.6%	3.0%	12.8%	34.9%	—	42.3%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	40.7%	3.5%	10.1%	34.3%	8.9%	40.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	39.0%	4.3%	10.4%	35.0%	—	39.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	35.8%	5.1%	7.3%	33.1%	12.2%	38.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	36.6%	44.0%	24.8%	32.5%	—	42.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	30.3%	36.1%	19.2%	27.6%	42.1%	34.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	99.8%	16.0%	18.1%	21.6%	—	18.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	41%	50.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-17 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	30%	51.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
National Blend	25%	51.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
ICON	12%	53.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	11%	54.3°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	5%	54.2°F	2.9°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	60.6°F	3.2°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 49°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261017-TMAX-LE49
Opened Oct 13 · 08:02 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 49°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗