KPIT / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≤ 49°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST8%Oct 17 · 06:58 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

30%

12%

11%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 14.8¢Risks 14.75u

EPSNO 85.2¢Risks 85.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +85.25u · EPS −85.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T06:58:42+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T08:02:40+00:00	35.6%	3.9%	6.4%	31.6%	21.4%
2026-10-13T08:49:38+00:00	35.6%	3.9%	6.4%	31.6%	21.4%
2026-10-13T09:34:43+00:00	35.6%	3.9%	6.4%	31.6%	21.4%
2026-10-13T10:19:51+00:00	35.6%	3.9%	6.4%	31.6%	21.4%
2026-10-13T11:05:09+00:00	35.6%	4.5%	19.5%	31.6%	21.4%
2026-10-13T11:50:34+00:00	35.6%	4.5%	19.5%	31.6%	21.4%
2026-10-13T12:35:47+00:00	35.6%	4.5%	19.5%	31.6%	21.4%
2026-10-13T13:20:53+00:00	35.6%	4.5%	19.5%	31.6%	21.4%
2026-10-13T14:05:59+00:00	29.3%	4.5%	19.5%	31.6%	21.5%
2026-10-13T14:56:02+00:00	29.3%	6.7%	19.5%	31.6%	21.5%
2026-10-13T15:41:15+00:00	29.3%	6.7%	19.5%	31.6%	21.5%
2026-10-13T16:27:01+00:00	29.3%	6.7%	19.5%	31.6%	21.5%
2026-10-13T17:12:08+00:00	29.3%	6.7%	14.7%	31.6%	21.5%
2026-10-13T17:57:16+00:00	29.3%	6.7%	14.7%	31.6%	21.5%
2026-10-13T18:42:21+00:00	29.3%	6.7%	14.7%	31.6%	21.5%
2026-10-13T19:27:26+00:00	30.1%	6.7%	14.7%	31.6%	20.3%
2026-10-13T20:12:32+00:00	30.1%	6.7%	14.7%	31.6%	20.3%
2026-10-13T20:57:41+00:00	30.1%	6.7%	14.7%	31.6%	20.3%
2026-10-13T21:42:58+00:00	30.1%	6.7%	14.7%	31.6%	20.3%
2026-10-13T22:28:22+00:00	30.1%	6.7%	14.7%	35.2%	20.3%
2026-10-13T23:13:32+00:00	30.1%	6.7%	16.0%	35.2%	20.3%
2026-10-13T23:58:43+00:00	30.1%	6.7%	16.0%	35.2%	20.3%
2026-10-14T00:43:51+00:00	30.1%	6.7%	16.0%	35.2%	20.3%
2026-10-14T01:29:07+00:00	23.0%	6.7%	16.0%	35.2%	20.3%
2026-10-14T02:14:16+00:00	23.0%	6.7%	16.0%	35.2%	20.3%
2026-10-14T02:59:30+00:00	23.0%	6.7%	16.0%	35.2%	20.3%
2026-10-14T03:45:25+00:00	23.0%	6.7%	16.0%	35.2%	20.3%
2026-10-14T04:30:44+00:00	23.0%	6.7%	16.0%	35.2%	20.3%
2026-10-14T05:15:51+00:00	23.0%	6.7%	16.0%	35.2%	20.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:57+00:00	23.0%	6.7%	16.0%	35.2%	20.3%
2026-10-14T06:46:10+00:00	23.0%	6.7%	16.0%	35.2%	20.3%
2026-10-14T07:31:24+00:00	20.8%	6.7%	16.0%	35.2%	5.1%
2026-10-14T08:16:33+00:00	20.8%	6.7%	16.0%	35.2%	5.1%
2026-10-14T09:01:43+00:00	20.8%	6.7%	16.0%	35.2%	5.1%
2026-10-14T09:46:51+00:00	20.8%	6.7%	16.0%	35.2%	5.1%
2026-10-14T10:32:11+00:00	20.8%	6.7%	16.0%	23.0%	5.1%
2026-10-14T11:20:33+00:00	20.8%	4.5%	5.8%	23.0%	5.1%
2026-10-14T12:06:11+00:00	20.8%	4.5%	5.8%	23.0%	5.1%
2026-10-14T12:51:18+00:00	20.8%	4.5%	5.8%	23.0%	5.1%
2026-10-14T13:36:26+00:00	18.2%	4.5%	5.8%	23.0%	5.1%
2026-10-14T14:26:47+00:00	18.2%	4.6%	5.8%	23.0%	5.1%
2026-10-14T15:12:01+00:00	18.2%	4.3%	5.8%	23.0%	5.1%
2026-10-14T15:57:52+00:00	18.2%	4.3%	5.8%	23.0%	5.1%
2026-10-14T16:43:01+00:00	18.2%	4.3%	5.8%	23.0%	5.1%
2026-10-14T17:28:10+00:00	18.2%	4.3%	6.5%	23.0%	5.1%
2026-10-14T18:13:18+00:00	18.2%	4.3%	6.5%	23.0%	5.1%
2026-10-14T18:58:25+00:00	18.2%	4.3%	6.5%	23.0%	5.1%
2026-10-14T19:43:31+00:00	14.7%	4.3%	6.5%	21.0%	1.2%
2026-10-14T20:28:47+00:00	14.7%	4.3%	6.5%	21.0%	1.2%
2026-10-14T21:13:54+00:00	14.7%	4.3%	6.5%	21.0%	1.2%
2026-10-14T21:59:00+00:00	14.7%	4.3%	6.5%	21.0%	1.2%
2026-10-14T22:44:07+00:00	14.7%	4.3%	6.5%	21.0%	1.2%
2026-10-14T23:29:22+00:00	14.7%	4.3%	6.5%	21.0%	1.2%
2026-10-15T00:14:38+00:00	14.7%	4.3%	7.7%	21.0%	1.2%
2026-10-15T01:01:07+00:00	14.7%	4.3%	7.7%	21.0%	1.2%
2026-10-15T01:46:15+00:00	14.7%	4.3%	7.7%	21.0%	1.2%
2026-10-15T02:31:27+00:00	14.7%	4.3%	7.7%	21.0%	1.2%
2026-10-15T03:16:35+00:00	14.7%	4.3%	7.7%	21.0%	1.2%
2026-10-15T04:01:48+00:00	14.7%	4.3%	7.7%	21.0%	1.2%
2026-10-15T04:47:49+00:00	14.7%	4.3%	7.7%	21.0%	1.2%
2026-10-15T05:33:15+00:00	14.7%	4.3%	7.3%	21.0%	1.2%
2026-10-15T06:18:25+00:00	14.7%	4.3%	7.3%	21.0%	1.2%
2026-10-15T07:03:33+00:00	14.7%	4.3%	7.3%	21.0%	1.2%
2026-10-15T07:48:58+00:00	13.0%	4.3%	7.3%	32.2%	5.4%
2026-10-15T08:35:48+00:00	13.0%	4.3%	7.3%	32.2%	5.4%
2026-10-15T09:21:24+00:00	13.0%	4.3%	7.3%	32.2%	5.4%
2026-10-15T10:07:09+00:00	13.0%	4.3%	7.3%	32.2%	5.4%
2026-10-15T10:52:48+00:00	13.0%	4.3%	7.3%	32.2%	5.4%
2026-10-15T11:39:06+00:00	13.0%	4.3%	7.3%	32.2%	5.4%
2026-10-15T12:24:48+00:00	13.0%	1.0%	7.3%	32.2%	5.4%
2026-10-15T13:10:05+00:00	13.0%	1.0%	7.3%	32.2%	5.4%
2026-10-15T13:55:46+00:00	12.9%	1.1%	7.3%	32.2%	5.4%
2026-10-15T14:48:22+00:00	12.9%	1.1%	7.3%	32.2%	5.4%
2026-10-15T15:33:43+00:00	12.9%	0.8%	7.3%	32.2%	5.4%
2026-10-15T16:19:53+00:00	12.9%	0.8%	7.3%	32.2%	5.4%
2026-10-15T17:05:19+00:00	12.9%	0.8%	5.7%	32.2%	5.4%
2026-10-15T17:50:34+00:00	12.9%	0.8%	5.7%	32.2%	5.4%
2026-10-15T18:35:54+00:00	12.9%	0.8%	5.7%	32.2%	5.4%
2026-10-15T19:21:06+00:00	12.9%	0.8%	5.7%	32.2%	5.4%
2026-10-15T20:06:13+00:00	11.9%	0.8%	5.7%	31.3%	6.7%
2026-10-15T20:51:26+00:00	11.9%	0.8%	5.7%	31.3%	6.7%
2026-10-15T21:36:40+00:00	11.9%	0.8%	5.7%	31.3%	6.7%
2026-10-15T22:21:48+00:00	11.9%	0.8%	5.7%	31.3%	6.7%
2026-10-15T23:06:58+00:00	11.9%	0.8%	6.1%	31.3%	6.7%
2026-10-15T23:52:12+00:00	11.9%	0.8%	6.1%	31.3%	6.7%
2026-10-16T00:37:21+00:00	11.9%	0.8%	6.1%	31.3%	6.7%
2026-10-16T01:22:40+00:00	16.3%	0.8%	6.1%	31.3%	6.7%
2026-10-16T02:07:57+00:00	16.3%	0.8%	6.1%	31.3%	6.7%
2026-10-16T02:53:27+00:00	16.3%	0.8%	6.1%	31.3%	6.7%
2026-10-16T03:38:38+00:00	16.3%	0.8%	6.1%	31.3%	6.7%
2026-10-16T04:23:53+00:00	16.3%	0.8%	6.1%	31.3%	6.7%
2026-10-16T05:10:22+00:00	16.3%	0.8%	7.8%	31.3%	6.7%
2026-10-16T05:55:48+00:00	16.3%	0.8%	7.8%	31.3%	6.7%
2026-10-16T06:41:01+00:00	16.3%	0.8%	7.8%	31.3%	6.7%
2026-10-16T07:26:12+00:00	12.8%	0.8%	7.8%	31.3%	14.0%
2026-10-16T08:11:21+00:00	12.8%	0.8%	7.8%	31.3%	14.0%
2026-10-16T08:56:32+00:00	12.8%	0.8%	7.8%	31.3%	14.0%
2026-10-16T09:41:40+00:00	12.8%	0.8%	7.8%	31.3%	14.0%
2026-10-16T10:26:46+00:00	12.8%	0.8%	7.8%	31.3%	14.0%
2026-10-16T11:12:05+00:00	12.8%	0.1%	6.1%	31.3%	14.0%
2026-10-16T11:57:35+00:00	12.8%	0.1%	6.1%	31.3%	14.0%
2026-10-16T12:42:45+00:00	12.8%	0.1%	6.1%	31.3%	14.0%
2026-10-16T13:28:00+00:00	12.3%	0.1%	6.1%	36.3%	14.0%
2026-10-16T14:19:39+00:00	12.2%	0.1%	6.1%	36.3%	14.1%
2026-10-16T15:05:09+00:00	12.2%	0.0%	6.1%	36.3%	14.1%
2026-10-16T15:50:53+00:00	12.2%	0.0%	6.1%	36.3%	14.1%
2026-10-16T16:36:05+00:00	12.2%	0.0%	6.1%	36.3%	14.1%
2026-10-16T17:21:17+00:00	12.2%	0.0%	7.0%	36.3%	14.1%
2026-10-16T18:06:35+00:00	12.2%	0.0%	7.0%	36.3%	14.1%
2026-10-16T18:51:41+00:00	12.2%	0.0%	7.0%	36.3%	14.1%
2026-10-16T19:36:51+00:00	11.7%	0.0%	7.0%	36.3%	12.3%
2026-10-16T20:22:21+00:00	11.7%	0.0%	7.0%	36.3%	12.3%
2026-10-16T21:07:44+00:00	11.7%	0.0%	7.0%	36.3%	12.3%
2026-10-16T21:52:50+00:00	11.7%	0.0%	7.0%	36.3%	12.3%
2026-10-16T22:37:58+00:00	11.7%	0.0%	7.0%	29.5%	12.3%
2026-10-16T23:23:16+00:00	11.7%	0.0%	7.0%	29.5%	12.3%
2026-10-17T00:08:46+00:00	11.7%	0.0%	7.0%	29.5%	12.3%
2026-10-17T00:54:55+00:00	11.7%	0.0%	7.0%	29.5%	12.3%
2026-10-17T01:40:04+00:00	11.2%	0.0%	7.0%	29.5%	12.3%
2026-10-17T02:25:17+00:00	11.2%	0.0%	7.0%	29.5%	12.3%
2026-10-17T03:10:26+00:00	11.2%	0.0%	7.0%	29.5%	12.3%
2026-10-17T03:55:35+00:00	11.2%	0.0%	7.0%	29.5%	12.3%
2026-10-17T04:41:00+00:00	11.2%	0.0%	7.0%	29.5%	12.3%
2026-10-17T05:28:17+00:00	11.2%	0.0%	7.0%	29.5%	12.3%
2026-10-17T06:13:34+00:00	11.2%	0.0%	5.3%	29.5%	12.3%
2026-10-17T06:58:42+00:00	11.2%	0.0%	5.3%	29.5%	12.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	41%	50.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-17 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	30%	51.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
National Blend	25%	51.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
ICON	12%	53.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	11%	54.3°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	5%	54.2°F	2.9°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	60.6°F	3.2°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 49°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261017-TMAX-LE49
Opened Oct 13 · 08:02 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 49°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗