KPIT / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST64%Oct 20 · 04:03 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

89%

61%

48%

47%

Consensus

64%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 71.9¢Risks 71.90u

EPSNO 28.1¢Risks 28.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +28.10u · EPS −28.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	8.7%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	39.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	58.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	77.6%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	72.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	39.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	55.5%	—	—	—	—	73.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	37.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	85.7%	—	—	—	—	77.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	6.5%	—	—	72.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	91.5%	—	65.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	83.1%	—	—	—	—	63.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	88.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	89.3%	—	13.5%	—	—	66.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	84.8%	—	81.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	91.5%	—	27.8%	—	—	70.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	72.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	86.8%	15.9%	64.5%	—	—	66.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	85.0%	—	71.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	74.3%	61.8%	61.1%	9.3%	—	52.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	82.0%	—	63.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	83.5%	59.4%	39.2%	35.7%	—	58.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	85.3%	—	58.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	83.5%	72.4%	43.9%	62.0%	—	67.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	83.1%	—	55.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	83.7%	75.2%	45.2%	61.8%	—	61.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	81.0%	12.2%	34.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	76.8%	53.3%	40.9%	60.7%	—	67.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	77.4%	37.4%	38.2%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	77.9%	48.2%	40.5%	46.5%	—	62.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	73.6%	48.2%	37.6%	—	—	55.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	70.3%	48.2%	36.4%	28.9%	—	50.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	68.2%	46.2%	36.1%	—	—	43.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	67.8%	51.0%	36.6%	17.7%	—	41.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	63.7%	55.0%	45.0%	—	—	36.3%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	61.2%	44.9%	37.8%	9.4%	—	36.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	56.3%	52.1%	46.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	56.5%	66.9%	54.4%	16.2%	—	40.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	59.0%	62.2%	53.4%	0.0%	—	43.3%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	62.6%	51.2%	48.8%	14.0%	0.0%	41.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	70.7%	69.6%	61.9%	18.3%	—	46.4%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	71.3%	80.9%	55.0%	25.6%	37.7%	48.8%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	68.7%	—	48.7%	20.9%	—	37.3%
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	—	—	48.7%	—	0.0%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	96%	69.1°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	89%	68.5°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	61%	64.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	64.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
ICON	48%	63.3°F	3.6°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	47%	63.3°F	3.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	24%	62.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261021-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 15 · 15:33 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 64°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗