KPIT / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST64%Oct 20 · 04:03 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

89%

61%

48%

47%

Consensus

64%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 71.9¢Risks 71.90u

EPSNO 28.1¢Risks 28.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +28.10u · EPS −28.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T04:03:56+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T15:33:43+00:00	95.1%	57.8%	97.0%	64.2%	75.5%
2026-10-15T16:19:53+00:00	95.1%	57.8%	97.0%	64.2%	75.5%
2026-10-15T17:05:19+00:00	95.1%	57.8%	97.7%	64.2%	75.5%
2026-10-15T17:50:34+00:00	95.1%	57.8%	97.7%	64.2%	75.5%
2026-10-15T18:35:54+00:00	95.1%	57.8%	97.7%	64.2%	75.5%
2026-10-15T19:21:06+00:00	95.1%	57.8%	97.7%	64.2%	75.5%
2026-10-15T20:06:13+00:00	94.3%	57.8%	97.7%	68.6%	82.7%
2026-10-15T20:51:26+00:00	94.3%	57.8%	97.7%	68.6%	82.7%
2026-10-15T21:36:40+00:00	94.3%	57.8%	97.7%	68.6%	82.7%
2026-10-15T22:21:48+00:00	94.3%	57.8%	97.7%	68.6%	82.7%
2026-10-15T23:06:58+00:00	94.3%	57.8%	96.9%	68.6%	82.7%
2026-10-15T23:52:12+00:00	94.3%	57.8%	96.9%	68.6%	82.7%
2026-10-16T00:37:21+00:00	94.3%	57.8%	96.9%	68.6%	82.7%
2026-10-16T01:22:40+00:00	93.6%	57.8%	96.9%	68.6%	82.7%
2026-10-16T02:07:57+00:00	93.6%	57.8%	96.9%	68.6%	82.7%
2026-10-16T02:53:27+00:00	93.6%	57.8%	96.9%	68.6%	82.7%
2026-10-16T03:38:38+00:00	93.6%	57.8%	96.9%	68.6%	82.7%
2026-10-19T04:30:21+00:00	82.6%	50.0%	95.5%	54.5%	52.0%
2026-10-19T05:16:55+00:00	82.6%	50.0%	94.9%	54.5%	52.0%
2026-10-19T06:02:10+00:00	82.6%	50.0%	94.9%	54.5%	52.0%
2026-10-19T06:47:18+00:00	82.6%	50.0%	94.9%	54.5%	52.0%
2026-10-19T07:32:37+00:00	82.5%	50.0%	94.9%	56.8%	64.3%
2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00	82.5%	50.0%	94.9%	56.8%	64.3%
2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00	82.5%	50.0%	94.9%	56.8%	64.3%
2026-10-19T09:49:32+00:00	82.5%	50.0%	94.9%	56.8%	64.3%
2026-10-19T10:34:57+00:00	82.5%	50.0%	94.9%	56.8%	64.3%
2026-10-19T11:20:38+00:00	82.5%	55.5%	95.0%	56.8%	64.3%
2026-10-19T12:06:27+00:00	82.5%	55.5%	95.0%	56.8%	64.3%
2026-10-19T12:51:49+00:00	82.5%	55.5%	95.0%	56.8%	64.3%
2026-10-19T13:36:55+00:00	83.8%	55.5%	95.0%	56.8%	64.3%
2026-10-19T14:27:57+00:00	83.9%	55.5%	95.0%	56.8%	64.3%
2026-10-19T15:13:15+00:00	83.9%	47.3%	95.0%	56.8%	64.3%
2026-10-19T15:59:05+00:00	83.9%	47.3%	95.0%	56.8%	64.3%
2026-10-19T16:44:14+00:00	83.9%	47.3%	95.0%	56.8%	64.3%
2026-10-19T17:29:26+00:00	83.9%	47.3%	95.6%	56.8%	64.3%
2026-10-19T18:14:36+00:00	83.9%	47.3%	95.6%	56.8%	64.3%
2026-10-19T18:59:49+00:00	83.9%	47.3%	95.6%	56.8%	64.3%
2026-10-19T19:45:25+00:00	85.1%	47.3%	95.6%	60.6%	47.8%
2026-10-19T20:30:36+00:00	85.1%	47.3%	95.6%	60.6%	47.8%
2026-10-19T21:15:49+00:00	85.1%	47.3%	95.6%	60.6%	47.8%
2026-10-19T22:00:57+00:00	85.1%	47.3%	95.6%	60.6%	47.8%
2026-10-19T22:46:09+00:00	85.1%	47.3%	95.6%	60.6%	47.8%
2026-10-19T23:31:24+00:00	85.1%	47.3%	96.5%	60.6%	47.8%
2026-10-20T00:16:41+00:00	85.1%	47.3%	96.5%	60.6%	47.8%
2026-10-20T01:02:33+00:00	85.1%	47.3%	96.5%	60.6%	47.8%
2026-10-20T01:47:42+00:00	89.2%	47.3%	96.5%	60.6%	47.8%
2026-10-20T02:32:53+00:00	89.2%	47.3%	96.5%	60.6%	47.8%
2026-10-20T03:18:02+00:00	89.2%	47.3%	96.5%	60.6%	47.8%
2026-10-20T04:03:56+00:00	89.2%	47.3%	96.5%	60.6%	47.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	96%	69.1°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	89%	68.5°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	61%	64.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	64.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
ICON	48%	63.3°F	3.6°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	47%	63.3°F	3.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	24%	62.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261021-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 15 · 15:33 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 64°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗