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KPIT / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 74°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 17 · 14:39 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
17%
AIFS
16%
ICON
10%
HRES
4%
EPS
<1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 8.4¢Risks 4.20u
VS
EPSNO 91.6¢Risks 45.80u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +45.80u · EPS −45.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.0% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.2% · 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.8% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 19.3% · 2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 21.6% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 17.2% · 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.4% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 31.6% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 52.1% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.9% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.7% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 31.1% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 23.6% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.6% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.7% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 34.0% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 20.7% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 24.4% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.5% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 21.6% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 17.4% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 18.9% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 35.7% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.8% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 30.2% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 38.4% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 38.8% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 43.0% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 27.8% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 23.2% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 32.4% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.0% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.9% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.5% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.2% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.4% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.9% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.4% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.6% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.8% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.6% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.0% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.1% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.1% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.3% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.6% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.6% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.3% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 28.3% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.0% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 7.9% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.8% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.0% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 10.9% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.5% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.9% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.4% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.6% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.3% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.7% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.5% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.2% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.0% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.7% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.6% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.3% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.2% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.2% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.1% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.2% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.2% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.7% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.2% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 14.3% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 12.8% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 11.8% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 19.7% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 12.8% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 17.1% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 15.3% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.8% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.2% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.8% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.3% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.4% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.8% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.4% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.7% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.2% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:0010-08 06:0010-14 06:0010-20 06:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS*
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:000.0%—————
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:002.0%————0.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:001.2%—————
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:0010.8%————5.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:0019.3%—————
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:0021.6%————7.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:0017.2%—————
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:001.4%————4.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:0031.6%—————
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:0052.1%————14.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:005.9%—————
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:008.7%————12.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:0031.1%—————
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:0023.6%————11.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:003.6%—————
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:0013.7%————19.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:0034.0%—————
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:0020.7%————12.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:0024.4%—————
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:009.5%————17.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:0021.6%—————
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:0017.4%————15.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:0018.9%—3.6%———
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:0035.7%—0.0%——9.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:0015.8%—1.3%———
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:0030.2%————4.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:0038.4%—28.3%———
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:0038.8%—0.0%——9.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:0043.0%—6.0%———
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:0027.8%—0.0%——7.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:0023.2%—7.9%———
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:0032.4%0.1%3.8%——6.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:0015.0%—2.0%———
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:006.9%2.1%10.9%0.1%—5.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:005.5%—4.5%———
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:008.2%1.0%2.9%1.0%—1.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:004.4%—2.4%———
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:002.9%0.1%3.6%0.2%—0.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:001.4%—3.3%——0.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:002.6%1.3%3.0%0.1%—0.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:000.8%0.0%0.1%——0.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:001.6%0.6%2.7%0.2%—0.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:002.0%0.1%1.5%———
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:002.1%0.0%1.2%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:000.1%0.0%1.0%———
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:000.1%0.0%0.7%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:000.2%0.0%0.6%——0.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:000.4%0.0%0.3%0.0%0.1%0.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:000.3%—0.2%——0.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 217%69.0°F4.7°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
AIFS Single16%68.0°F5.4°F2026-10-17 06:00Pending
ICON10%64.5°F7.2°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
NWS forecast10%66.0°F5.9°F2026-10-17 03:00Pending
IFS HRES4%61.9°F6.6°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
National Blend1%66.0°F3.3°F2026-10-17 06:00Pending
IFS Ensemble<1%62.8°F3.1°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261023-TMAX-GE74
Opened Oct 16 · 13:28 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh runs hot-for-here: 74°F+ · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗