KPIT / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 74°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 17 · 14:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

17%

16%

10%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 8.4¢Risks 4.20u

EPSNO 91.6¢Risks 45.80u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +45.80u · EPS −45.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T14:39:14+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T13:28:01+00:00	33.1%	0.2%	44.5%	10.6%	8.1%
2026-10-16T14:19:39+00:00	33.2%	0.2%	44.5%	10.7%	8.1%
2026-10-16T15:05:09+00:00	33.2%	0.4%	44.5%	10.7%	8.1%
2026-10-16T15:50:53+00:00	33.2%	0.4%	44.5%	10.7%	8.1%
2026-10-16T16:36:05+00:00	33.2%	0.4%	44.5%	10.7%	8.1%
2026-10-16T17:21:17+00:00	33.2%	0.4%	36.9%	10.7%	8.1%
2026-10-16T18:06:35+00:00	33.2%	0.4%	36.9%	10.7%	8.1%
2026-10-16T18:51:41+00:00	33.2%	0.4%	36.9%	10.7%	8.1%
2026-10-16T19:36:52+00:00	20.2%	0.4%	36.9%	10.7%	24.1%
2026-10-16T20:22:21+00:00	20.2%	0.4%	36.9%	10.7%	24.1%
2026-10-16T21:07:44+00:00	20.2%	0.4%	36.9%	10.7%	24.1%
2026-10-16T21:52:50+00:00	20.2%	0.4%	36.9%	10.7%	24.1%
2026-10-16T22:37:58+00:00	20.2%	0.4%	36.9%	8.6%	24.1%
2026-10-16T23:23:18+00:00	20.2%	0.4%	29.8%	8.7%	24.1%
2026-10-17T00:08:46+00:00	20.2%	0.4%	29.8%	8.7%	24.1%
2026-10-17T00:54:55+00:00	20.2%	0.4%	29.8%	8.7%	24.1%
2026-10-17T01:40:04+00:00	17.8%	0.4%	29.8%	8.7%	24.1%
2026-10-17T02:25:17+00:00	17.8%	0.4%	29.8%	8.7%	24.1%
2026-10-17T03:10:26+00:00	17.8%	0.4%	29.8%	8.7%	24.1%
2026-10-17T03:55:35+00:00	17.8%	0.4%	29.8%	8.7%	24.1%
2026-10-17T04:41:01+00:00	17.8%	0.4%	29.8%	8.7%	24.1%
2026-10-17T05:28:17+00:00	17.8%	0.4%	29.8%	8.7%	24.1%
2026-10-17T06:13:34+00:00	17.8%	0.4%	26.5%	8.7%	24.1%
2026-10-17T06:58:42+00:00	17.8%	0.4%	26.5%	8.7%	24.1%
2026-10-17T07:43:59+00:00	23.0%	0.4%	26.5%	3.9%	10.3%
2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:00	23.0%	0.4%	26.5%	3.9%	10.3%
2026-10-17T09:16:24+00:00	23.0%	0.4%	26.5%	3.9%	10.3%
2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00	23.0%	0.4%	26.5%	3.9%	10.3%
2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00	23.0%	0.4%	26.5%	3.9%	10.3%
2026-10-17T11:32:00+00:00	23.0%	0.0%	16.8%	3.9%	10.3%
2026-10-17T12:17:25+00:00	23.0%	0.0%	16.8%	3.9%	10.3%
2026-10-17T13:02:31+00:00	23.0%	0.0%	16.8%	3.9%	10.3%
2026-10-17T13:47:47+00:00	15.5%	0.0%	16.8%	4.1%	10.3%
2026-10-17T14:39:14+00:00	15.5%	0.0%	16.8%	3.9%	10.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	17%	69.0°F	4.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	16%	68.0°F	5.4°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
ICON	10%	64.5°F	7.2°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	10%	66.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-17 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	4%	61.9°F	6.6°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
National Blend	1%	66.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	62.8°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261023-TMAX-GE74
Opened Oct 16 · 13:28 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh runs hot-for-here: 74°F+ · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗