KPIT / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 65°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST57%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

77%

64%

46%

17%

Consensus

57%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 53.5¢Risks 53.50u

EPSNO 46.5¢Risks 46.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +46.50u · EPS −46.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	6.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	96.1%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	—	—	—	45.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	45.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	91.1%	—	—	—	—	56.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	92.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	83.5%	—	—	—	—	46.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	91.1%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	21.9%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	68.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	85.3%	—	—	—	—	52.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	94.9%	—	1.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	72.5%	—	—	—	—	55.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	72.2%	—	—	—	—	48.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	70.0%	—	26.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	48.8%	—	31.3%	—	—	49.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	1.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	45.0%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	—	44.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	27.8%	—	62.8%	—	—	33.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	57.3%	—	52.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	52.0%	2.4%	69.4%	—	—	30.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	37.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	56.3%	43.7%	38.2%	1.6%	—	43.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	57.1%	—	24.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	60.8%	52.2%	37.1%	8.4%	—	41.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	56.0%	—	48.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	57.6%	43.9%	53.8%	24.5%	—	40.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	58.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	66.3%	74.5%	64.1%	36.7%	35.9%	51.6%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	55.7%	—	—	54.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	90%	71.0°F	5.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	77%	68.7°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
ICON	64%	68.2°F	10.0°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	65.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	46%	63.8°F	6.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	17%	60.9°F	3.8°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 65°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261025-TMAX-GE65
Opened Oct 18 · 08:00 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 65°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗